Network impacts of distance-based road user charging

Distance-based road user charging is being seen as one potential mechanism to implement national road charging schemes. This paper investigates the design aspects of universal distance-based charging schemes and incorporates procedures within a detailed network supply model to represent how a range of different permutations of distance-based charges across a given network (charging regimes) affect route-choice, travel characteristics and demand for road space. The results suggest that distance-based charging can reduce number and length of trips, congestion, accidents and pollution, and provide net economic benefits and revenues. However, these benefits are not found to be uniform throughout the network. Their magnitude largely depends on the charge level, the hierarchy of charges across the network, and the difference between the charge levels.     

Diversification and performance: evidence from East Asian firms

We examine the impact of diversification on performance for firms operating in different institutional environments during a relatively stable period and during a major economy‐wide shock. We locate our study in six Asian countries at different levels of institutional development. Results indicate that diversification negatively impacts performance in more developed institutional environments while improving performance only in the least developed environments. Even in the least developed institutional environments, diversification offers limited benefits when an economy‐wide shock strikes. Though successful diversifiers are sometimes affiliated with business groups, diversification is associated with poorer performance for both affiliated firms and independent firms. In sum, we find that the outcomes of diversification are influenced by institutional environments, economic stability and affiliation with business groups. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars.     

Contingent Valuation and Actual Behavior: Predicting Connections to New Water Systems in the State of Kerala, India

In 1988, families in Kerala State in India were surveyed toascertain their willingness to pay for household connectionsto a piped water supply system. In 1991 the families in thesecommunities were surveyed again and their actual decisions recorded.This article explores the validity of the findings of the 1988study on the basis of actual behavior. It looks at the questionof benefit revelation: did people behave as they said they would?And it looks at the question of benefit transfer: did peoplein one site behave as they were predicted to behave, on thebasis of the predictions of a behavioral model for a differentsite? The data were also used to analyze the policy relevanceof behavioral modeling.     

A Survey of Agricultural Household Models: Recent Findings and Policy Implications

Semicommercial farms that produce multiple crops make up a largepart of the agricultural sector in developing economies. Thesefarms or agricultural households combine two fundamental unitsof microeconomic analysis: the household and the firm. Traditionaleconomic theory has dealt with these units separately. But indeveloping economies in which peasant farms dominate, theirinterdependence is of crucial importance. Researchers at theFood Research Institute, Stanford University, and at the WorldBank have developed models of agricultural households that combineproducer and consumer behavior in a theoretically consistentfashion. Recent empirical applications of these models haveextended them and expanded the range of policy issues whichcan be investigated using this general framework. This article reports the results of empirical applications ofthis model in India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea,Malaysia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Taiwan, and Thailand.It provides a comparative analysis of the policy implicationsof the approach for such matters as the welfare of farm households,the size of marketed surplus, the demand for nonagriculturalgoods and services, and for hired labor, and the availabilityof budget revenues and foreign exchange.     

Formal and Informal Regulation of Industrial Pollution: Comparative Evidence from Indonesia and the United States

Economic theory and recent empirical work suggest that whenformal regulation of pollution is absent or less than 100 percenteffective, affected communities are often able to negotiateabatement from plants in their vicinity through "informal regulation."Using a model of equilibrium pollution, this article confirmsthe existence of significant informal regulation for unregulatedpollutants in both Indonesia and the United States as well asfor regulated pollutants in the United States. Combining plant-leveldata with community data in both countries, regressions revealthat even after controlling for traditional economic variablessuch as output levels and input prices as well as for plantcharacteristics such as industrial sector and age, the per capitaincome of affected communities significantly affects pollutionintensities. Higher-income communities win significantly loweremissions in both countries and for both unregulated and regulatedpollutants in the United States, presumably because income affectsboth preferences for environmental quality and the ability tobring pressure on polluting factories.     

Multinational capital structure and financial flexibility

We address multinational capital structure decisions when firms have varying degrees of financial flexibility for shifting income and/or tax shields between subsidiaries. We find: (1) firms can use leverage to dramatically reduce negative valuation effects from operating in a high-tax country; (2) financial flexibility is a key determinant of optimal capital structure, acting as both a substitute and a complement for leverage; (3) multinational firms derive a synergistic effect from financial flexibility, which can enhance their value beyond that for a single-country firm from a low-tax jurisdiction; and (4) optimal capital structure typically differs substantially across subsidiaries, with each having positions in multiple currencies.     

Booms, Busts, and Fraud

Firms sometimes commit fraud by altering publicly reported informationto be more favorable, and investors can monitor firms to obtainmore accurate information. We study equilibrium fraud and monitoringdecisions. Fraud is most likely to occur in relatively goodtimes, and the link between fraud and good times becomes strongeras monitoring costs decrease. Nevertheless, improving businessconditions may sometimes diminish fraud. We provide an explanationfor why fraud peaks towards the end of a boom and is then revealedin the ensuing bust. We also show that fraud can increase iffirms make more information available to the public.     

A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts

There is very little research on the topic of buy-side analyst performance, and that which does exist yields mixed results. We use a large sample from both the buy-side and the sell-side and report several new results. First, while the contemporaneous returns to portfolios based on sell-side recommendations are positive, the returns for buy-side analysts, proxied by changes in institutional holdings, are negative. Second, the buy-side analysts' underperformance is accentuated when they trade against sell-side analysts' recommendations. Third, abnormal returns positively relate to both the portfolio size and the portfolio turnover of buy-side analysts' institutions, suggesting that large institutions employ superior analysts and that superior analysts frequently change their recommendations. Abnormal returns are also positively related to buy-side portfolios with stocks that have higher analyst coverage, greater institutional holding, and lower earnings forecast dispersion. Fourth, there is substantial persistence in buy-side performance, but even the top decile performs poorly. These findings suggest that sell-side analysts still outperform buy-side analysts despite the severe conflicts of interest documented in the literature.