Firm-provided training and temporary contracts

This paper analyses the relationship between workers type of contract and the probability of receiving firm-provided training. In particular, we raise the following question: do workers with temporary contracts face the same probability of receiving training as workers with permanent contracts, once we account for the fact that both types of workers have different probabilities of being employed in a firm providing training? The results from our empirical analysis using data from the Spanish labour market suggest that workers with temporary contracts not only are less likely to be employed in training firms but, once they are in those firms, they also have a lower probability of being chosen to participate in firm-provided training activities.JEL Classification: J23, M53Authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from Universidad de Alcalá under research project La relación entre temporalidad y formación en la empresa: un análisis comparativo entre los países de la Unión Europea (award no. UAH2002/022) and from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology under research project Observatorio del mercado de trabajo (SEC2001-0061). We have also benefited from our participation in the research project Estudio sobre la situación actual de la contratación temporal e indefinida en España financed by the Spanish Employment Office (INEM). We are grateful to participants in the XXVII Simposio de Análisis Económico (Salamanca), V Jornadas de Economía Laboral (Reus-Tarragona), and a seminar in the Istituto de Ricerca Sociale (Milano), and to one anonymous referee. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Trust,authentic pride,and moral reasoning: a unified framework of relational governance and emotional self‐regulation

This conceptual article introduces behavioral perspectives into the governance arena and undertakes a psychological assessment of managerial decision making in organizations by elaborating on the treatment of trust and (authentic and hubristic) pride in the extant literature. While trust is conceived by governance scholars as a device for monitoring relationships with others, we argue that authentic pride, contrary to hubris, could operate as an attribute of emotional self‐regulation allowing corporate leaders to govern the social behavior of their own self. Contrasting the features of trust and authentic pride, we advance several propositions to capture their relevance and simultaneous importance as viable governance mechanisms in light of a manager's level of cognitive moral reasoning. Our study builds a unified theoretical framework of governance which integrates human agency, psychological states, and moral judgment to foster a deeper understanding of complex self‐regulatory processes that are activated by decision makers in the execution of their roles.     

Television advertising television: measuring the ability of television promos to deliver ratings for new programs using single-source data

The entertainment industry relies heavily on advertising to attract audiences. This article demonstrates a method to measure the effect of on-air television promotions, or promos, on viewing behaviour, based on a well-established single-source method for determining the causal impact of advertising on sales. We illustrate this method on 18 new prime-time programs, showing that promos have a positive impact on viewing behaviour. Exposed viewers are substantially more likely to view the premiere episode of a new series, across a wide range of different television-viewing weights, frequency of promo exposures and program types. The research also shows evidence of reach-based scheduling strategies being generally more efficacious than frequency-based strategies. These findings provide guidance to help networks implement their promo strategy more effectively, as well as a method for future research into the effectiveness of television promos as this approach can be utilized in any country with a television ratings panel.     

Short Reports

As the US population ages, more older adults will face transportation and mobility challenges. This study examines the characteristics and contributing circumstances of nonfatal older adult pedestrian injuries. Data were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Programme (NEISS-AIP) for the years 2001 through 2006. Cases included persons aged 65 years and older who were nonfatally injured on a public roadway. The results indicated that on average, an estimated 52,482 older adults were treated in emergency departments each year for nonfatal pedestrian injuries. Falling and being hit by a motor vehicle were the leading mechanisms of injury, resulting in 77.5% and 15.0% of older adult pedestrian injuries, respectively. More than 9000 older pedestrian fall-related injuries each year involved a kerb. It is concluded that the growth in the older adult population could add to the overall burden of these nonfatal pedestrian injuries. Making transportation and mobility improvements, including environmental modifications, is important for preventing these injuries.     

ASSET ALLOCATION AND ANNUITY-PURCHASE STRATEGIES TO MINIMIZE THE PROBABILITY OF FINANCIAL RUIN

In this paper, we derive the optimal investment and annuitization strategies for a retiree whose objective is to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin, namely the probability that a fixed consumption strategy will lead to zero wealth while the individual is still alive. Recent papers in the insurance economics literature have examined utility-maximizing annuitization strategies. Others in the probability, finance, and risk management literature have derived shortfall-minimizing investment and hedging strategies given a limited amount of initial capital. This paper brings the two strands of research together. Our model pre-supposes a retiree who does not currently have sufficient wealth to purchase a life annuity that will yield her exogenously desired fixed consumption level. She seeks the asset allocation and annuitization strategy that will minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. We demonstrate that because of the binary nature of the investor's goal, she will not annuitize any of her wealth until she can fully cover her desired consumption with a life annuity. We derive a variational inequality that governs the ruin probability and the optimal strategies, and we demonstrate that the problem can be recast as a related optimal stopping problem which yields a free-boundary problem that is more tractable. We numerically calculate the ruin probability and optimal strategies and examine how they change as we vary the mortality assumption and parameters of the financial model. Moreover, for the special case of exponential future lifetime, we solve the (dual) problem explicitly. As a byproduct of our calculations, we are able to quantify the reduction in lifetime ruin probability that comes from being able to manage the investment portfolio dynamically and purchase annuities.     

Rules and software for detecting rank degeneracy

We describe an algorithm that can be used to select a set of independent columns of a matrix when numerical rank can be determined, and we associate the uncertainty of the data with rank selection. Mathematical software written in Fortran which implements this algorithm is available for a variety of computing machines.     

Valuation in Emerging Markets: A Simulation Approach

Most of the foundations of valuation theory have been designed for use in developed markets. Because of the greater, and in some cases different, risks associated with emerging markets (although recent experience might suggest otherwise), investors and corporate managers are often uncomfortable using traditional methods. The typical way of capturing emerging-market risks is to increase the discount rate in the standard valuation model. But, as the authors argue, such adjustments have the effect of undermining some of the basic assumptions of the CAPM-based discounted cash flow model. The standard theory of capital budgeting suggests that estimates of unconditional expected cash flows should be discounted at CAPM discount rates (or betas) that reflect only “systematic,” or “nondiversifiable,” market-wide risks. In practice, however, analysts tend to take what are really estimates of “conditional” expected cash flows—that is, conditional on the firm or its country avoiding a crisis—and discount them at higher rates that reflect not only systematic risks, but diversifiable risks that typically involve a higher probability of crisis-driven costs of default. But there is almost no basis in theory for the size of the increases in discount rates. In this article, the authors propose that analysts in emerging markets avoid this discount rate problem by using simulation techniques to capture emerging-market risks in their estimates of unconditional expected cash flows—in other words, estimates that directly incorporate the possibility of an emerging-market crisis and its consequences. Having produced such estimates, analysts can then discount them using the standard Global CAPM.