Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin under Random Consumption

Abstract

We determine the optimal investment strategy in a financial market for an individual whose random consumption is correlated with the price of a risky asset. Bayraktar and Young consider this problem and show that the minimum probability of lifetime ruin is the unique convex, smooth solution of its corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In this paper we focus on determining the probability of lifetime ruin and the corresponding optimal investment strategy. We obtain approximations for the probability of lifetime ruin for small values of certain parameters and demonstrate numerically that they are reasonable ones. We also obtain numerical results in cases for which those parameters are not small.     

Kalman filter estimation for valuing nontrading securities,with applications to the MMI cash-future spread on October 19 and 20, 1987

The Kalman filter is proposed as a method for estimating the value of nontrading securities during periods when other securities are trading. The method also provides confidence intervals that indicate the degree of uncertainty regarding estimated value. The method is applied to the Major Market Index during the principal days of the 1987 stock market crash. Our results indicate that nonsynchronous trading explains a small but significant portion of the cash-futures spread that prevailed during these days.     

Wealth Inequality and the Great Recession

The study of wealth and wealth inequality has received far less attention than income, but the increasing importance of wealth, debt and wealth inequality means closer attention must be paid to their concomitant dynamics. Policy interventions to reduce economic inequality continue to target income more than wealth, but targeting the latter – especially through taxes on financial assets – is arguably more effective.     

We the living: the effects of living and deceased donor stories on charitable bequest giving intentions

Choosing messages to encourage charitable bequest giving may be particularly challenging given sensitivity to personal mortality reminders. Previous research suggests that people often react to mortality reminders with avoidance, including distancing themselves from those associated with death. We compare the effects of otherwise similar living and deceased bequest donor stories on subsequent intentions to leave a charitable bequest. Although both story types significantly increased subsequent intentions to leave a charitable bequest, living donor stories consistently outperformed otherwise identical deceased donor stories. Fundraisers may do well to emphasize stories of living planned bequest donors and de‐emphasize death and the deceased in charitable bequest fundraising messaging. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shadow prices of environmental outputs and production efficiency of household-level paper recycling units in Vietnam

The production efficiency and shadow prices of three environmental outputs (BOD, COD, and SS) of 63 household-level paper-recycling units, from a recycling craft village in Vietnam, are assessed A two-stage procedure, linear programming and stochastic estimation, is used to estimate output distance function. Social capital as a production factor and environmental outputs are included in the output distance function. Results indicate that production efficiencies could potentially be improved by 28%. There is a substantial variation in the shadow prices of environmental outputs among the production units of different types of paper products. Furthermore, the average shadow prices of the three environmental outputs are all positive. This indicates a potential for improving environmental quality though introducing pollution-prevention methods to paper-recycling production processes in Vietnam (e.g., recirculation of wastewater), and suggests that it may be inappropriate to restrict the shadow prices of environmental outputs to be non-positive for the analysis of some production processes.     

Regional Differentiation and Farm Exit: A Hierarchical Model for Tuscany

We analyse the exit behaviour of Tuscan farms during the period 2000–2007 both at the farm and the territorial level. The study combines data from the 2000 National Census of Agriculture and three waves of the ‘Farm Structure Surveys’. The exit probability of the resulting sample, composed of 3,187 farms, is estimated through a Bayesian hierarchical probit model. Our results show that exits reflect the size and type of holdings. Likelihood of exit is higher in areas of higher population density that are not classified as ‘urban’ areas.     

An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorists and policy makers. Responses to a 73-question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time. The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right-wing conservative involved in the political process. He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler. This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority. As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders. He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms. In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style. To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss. Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run. He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; that is, being in the action is more important than the financial consequences. Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:765–801, 1998     

Computer education: A survey of accounting graduates

In recent years, increased attention has been directed towards the integration of computers into accounting education. A questionnaire was distributed to accounting graduates in order to determine their opinions about the adequacy of computer education and the importance of computer skills to the professional accountant. Graduates, stratified by year of graduation, were selected from a diverse group of universities.Overall, the respondents rated their own preparation low. They felt best prepared in programming skills but least prepared in networking and computer communication skills. In terms of importance, software proficiency was rated highest, with programming skills lowest. With a few exceptions, the analysis of the responses by demographic variables yielded results consistent with the overall analysis. The respondents with less work experience rated their preparation higher than those with more experience, but those with more work experience rated the importance of all computer skills higher.     

Using data in legacy fundraising: a practical approach

• Legacies provide a major source of income to charities, and their importance is only likely to increase with the passing on of the baby-boomer generation. Legacy fundraising is a long-term process, based on developing relationships with donors over time. Data have a key role to play in the development of these relationships, allowing legacy fundraisers to measure and track their donors, and to contribute to the development of effective fundraising strategies. This paper discusses the effective collection and use of data in legacy fundraising, from consolidating data, to analysing the results and building legacy targeting models. The authors discuss how these principles have been applied in UK-based charity, Help the Aged, in conjunction with their Data Agency, Tangible Data (formerly Talking Numbers) and to give practical advice on how they may be implemented in other organisations.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.