AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATE OF THE RELATION BETWEEN TWO MEASURES OF ECONOMIC WELFARE*

The main objective of this paper is to explore and quantify the difference between two measures of comparative economic welfare: (a) the more or less conventional measure of per capita national income, and (b) the capitalized value of expected future income per capita. The paper begins with a brief summary of the argument in favor of the present value of expected future income per capita as a measure of economic welfare. This is followed by an examination of the empirical relationship of the ratio of the suggested alternative measure to per capita income and an analysis of the variables used to compute the present value of expected income per capita. The main conclusion drawn from the calculations is that very substantial differences occur in the measurement of relative economic well-being depending on which measure is used. A final section discusses the implications of this finding for international comparisons of economic welfare.     

Institutional ownership,analyst following,and share prices

We study the mutual relationships between institutional ownership, analyst following and share prices. We show that the pressure on firms to set lower share prices to attract analysts is attenuated by institutional monitoring. Our theory refutes the assumed causal relation between share price and institutional ownership, attributed to the share price–liquidity relation, and we show empirically that share prices and institutional ownership are positively related after controlling for liquidity. Our study provides a rationale for why better firms generally maintain higher share price levels, and offers new insights into the puzzling empirical linkages observed between nominal share price levels and firm fundamentals.     

The determinants of market-wide issue cycles for initial public offerings

This paper identifies the determinants of market-wide issue cycles for initial public offerings (IPOs) using an autoregressive conditional count model. We consider whether IPO volume is related to business conditions, investor sentiment, and time variation in adverse selection costs caused by asymmetric information between managers and investors. We provide evidence indicating that time variation in business conditions and investor sentiment are important determinants of monthly issue activity. By contrast, time variation in adverse selection costs does not significantly affect IPO volume.     

The role of measurability in game-theoretic probability

This paper argues that the requirement of measurability (imposed on trading strategies) is indispensable in continuous-time game-theoretic probability. The necessity of the requirement of measurability in measure theory is demonstrated by results such as the Banach–Tarski paradox and is inherited by measure-theoretic probability. The situation in game-theoretic probability turns out to be somewhat similar in that dropping the requirement of measurability allows a trader in a financial security with a non-trivial price path to become infinitely rich while risking only one monetary unit.     

Has new business creation in russia come to a halt?

Successful transformation of centrally planned economies requires not just the privatization of the existing firms, but also the formation of new ones. New entrants serve to correct for the central planners' neglect of such sectors as services and consumer goods, and their bias in favor of large firms. Indeed, Central European economies have been experiencing a rapid rate of new business creation, as measured by the change in the number of small firms. Russia also experienced a short period of explosive growth in the number of new business. However, since 1994 net new business formation has stagnated. This paper looks into the possible causes of this phenomenon.Official data on the change in the number of small businesses, which serve as a proxy for net new business formation, arouse justified suspicion because of the frequent changes in the definition of “small enterprise.” Like everywhere in the world, some Russian registered firms do not become operational, and some firms that have ceased operations do not legally disband. If the share of these “dead souls” in the total count of small firms changes over time and official statistics does not adjust its count accordingly, the data may show the opposite of the actual processes. This paper analyzes Russian data collection procedures and other evidence, and concludes that stagnation in the new business formation is a real phenomenon, rather than a statistical artifact.The difficulty in finding out the causes of stagnation is that empirical studies focus on the existing businesses and miss those that should have been born but were not. The problems faced by the incumbents and frustrated entrants may well be different. The likely causes of the end of new business creation are the increased tax and regulatory burden, combined with plunder by the numerous tax and regulatory authorities. Other possible explanations involve the incumbents' use of the authorities and/or racketeers to erect barriers against new entrants.     

Options and efficiency in spaces of bounded claims

In a seminal contribution, Ross (1976) showed that a static finite state-space market can be completed by supplementing the primitive securities with ordinary call and put options. Galvani (2009) extends this result to norm separable _Lp$L_p$-spaces, with 1≤p<∞$1\le p<\infty$. This study concludes that options maintain the same spanning power in the space of bounded payoffs topologized by the duality with the space of the state price densities. In particular, under mild assumptions on the probability space, options written on a claim that is a.s. equal to an injective function complete the market.     

Contracts,incentives and organizations: Hart and Holmström Nobel Laureates

This article reviews the contribution of Hart and Holmström, the 2016 Nobel Laureates in economics. Holmström's work on the principal-agent problem answered questions as to what should (and should not) be included in an incentive contract. His work helped explain the simple structure of incentive contracts we typically observe in the real world. The models he developed have been used to address questions of CEO compensation, organizational design and optimal regulation. A key element of Hart's research focused on the question of what are the optimal boundaries of a firm (and indeed, what a firm actually is). In doing so he developed the incomplete-contracts framework, which has subsequently been used to explain many economic phenomena whenever renegotiation is important, including authority and decision-making structures in firms, why financial contracts look the way they do, and various questions in international trade and public policy.     

Can Russia Resettle the Far East?

Russian scholars, politicians and media have been alarmed by the declining population of the Far East, seeing it as a step towards eventual takeover of the region by China. This article shows that the progressive depopulation of the Far East is a reality and will continue in the coming decades. In addition to natural decline, the Far Eastern population will shrink faster than that of Russia because of net outmigration. Economic stagnation will keep migration from the South of the region at its present low rates. Recovery will increase mobility and allow the present deferred migrants to leave for European Russia. In the unlikely event that the Far East outperforms the rest of the country economically, it will attract migrants. However, any inflow is likely to be small because of the shrinking populations in European Russia and other ex-Soviet republics, and the competition for migrants from other parts of the world.     

On the Sensitivity of Premiums and Reserves to Changes in Valuation Elements

Upon differentiating the Thiele differential equations and the equivalence condition with respect to some parameter appearing in the equations, one obtains differential equations for the derivatives of the state-wise reserves and the premium level with respect to the parameter. The solution to these equations measures the impact on premiums and reserves of a change in the parameter. Typically only numerical results can be obtained, but the method applies quite generally to multi-state policies and to virtually any parameter, and so represents a panacea in (the vast majority of) situations where analytical results are out of reach. Extensions to higher order derivatives and higher order conditional moments are straightforward. A difference method for computation is devised, and numerical results are reported for some practical cases.