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51.
Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown Challange 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four‐step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a “branch” of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity—that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision “tree” that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak‐load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk‐neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a “no‐arbitrage” approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a “twin security” that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project. 相似文献
52.
In this paper we draw upon the unique natural experiment of post-communist transitions to show how the interaction between democratization and economic liberalization impacts health. We argue that, if occurring simultaneously, these transformations reduce overall uncertainty and thus improve health. Two concrete mechanisms are at work: first, people suffer less from stress-related diseases, and second, they start investing more in their own health. To capture the proposed theoretical mechanisms, we use stress-caused mortality and private expenditures on health as our dependent variables. Empirically, we employ mediation analysis with country and time fixed effects. We find that, ceteris paribus, democratization and economic liberalization exert a cumulatively positive impact upon health. Our findings should be relevant to other countries that undergo politico-economic transitions. 相似文献
53.
In this paper we assess the recent history of house prices andof mortgage lending across Europe. We develop a simple economicframework to estimate the likely contributions of fundamentalfactors, such as changes in real incomes and population growth,to house price appreciation. We also try to quantify how muchof price rises might have been driven by rising expectationsof future capital gains. We estimate that this might have playeda significant role in several countries, including Spain, Sweden,Belgium, and the UK. We then consider what different types ofmortgage arrangement might become attractive in a world of higherhouse prices, analysing types of indexed mortgage that haveadvantages where prices are higher relative to incomes and wherehouse prices may be volatile and cannot be assumed to carryon rising. 相似文献
54.
A. D. Zhukov 《Studies on Russian Economic Development》2007,18(6):592-599
Fundamentally new requirements for government policy making, necessitated by the transition from recession and depression to recovery and development, are considered. The causes of changes in the role and function of the state in the socioeconomic development of Russia are analyzed. The impact of structural and institutional change on budgetary policy is studied. 相似文献
55.
56.
Allen and Saunders [Allen, A., and A. Saunders. “Bank Window Dressing: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Banking and Finance 16 (1992), 583–623.] document abnormal behavior of bank assets and liabilities at the turn-of-the-quarter and attribute it
to window dressing by banks. Using different methods we re-visit bank turn-of-the-quarter balance sheet activity. We also
examine quarter-end changes in the effective fed funds rates and fed funds rate standard deviations. We confirm the presence
of turn-of-the-quarter activity on bank balance sheets and in the fed funds market. However, we conclude that the turn-of-the-quarter
effects are more consistent with customer preferred habitats than window dressing. 相似文献
57.
Normal approximations by Stein's method 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
58.
59.
We examine how firms use the network of overlapping directorships to determine chief executive officer (CEO) compensation. We contribute to related work by empirically exploring two competing hypotheses. In the first hypothesis, networks propagate relevant information used to establish good pay practices. In the second hypothesis, director networks are used opportunistically to benefit the CEO. The empirical findings are generally consistent with the first hypothesis. Yet, the importance of director networks is reduced when the CEO is entrenched and when management hires a compensation consultant. The latter finding is especially pronounced when director networks predict a reduction in CEO pay. 相似文献