Considering Aquacultural Externality in Coastal Land Allocation Decisions in India

Commercial aquaculture in India has come under attack for having caused negative agricultural and environmental impacts. This paper formulates an interactive model of non-renewable and renewable resources to characterize land allocations between aquaculture and agriculture in ecologically and economically sustainable fashion. Through an empirical application, various economic and policy circumstances that affect the optimal land allocation mix are evaluated. The aquaculture industry must address two economic effects: off-site negative effects on renewable food and other coastal resources, and on-site self-pollution of shrimp ponds. Current regulatory and land-use policies are inadequate to address these effects.     

A Proposed Arbitration Mechanism to Ensure Free Trade in Livestock Products

Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States are to begin in the near future. For there to be an ongoing free movement of commodities the question of nontariff barriers must be addressed in the negotiations. Livestock commodities are particularly prone to nontariff barriers due to the public health aspects of domestic regulations and the perishability of the products. Potential nontariff barriers in livestock and meat products are identified and the problems of normal negotiation procedures outlined. A proposal for an arbitration mechanism for the settlement of disputes is developed. It's essential elements are pre-approval of changes to regulations, extremely short arbitration periods and decentralized adjudication.
Les négociations de commerce entre le Canada et les États-Unis commenceront bientôt. Pour avoir un mouvement continuel des denrées, la question des barrières nontarifaires doit être adressée dans les négotiations. Les denrées bestiaux sont particulièrement portées aux barrières nontarifaires à cause des aspects de la santé publique dans les régulations domestiques et la nature périssable des produits. On identifie les barrières nontarifaires potentielles en des produits bestiaux et de viande. On indique aussi les problèmes avec les processus de négotiation normale. Une proposition pour un mécanisme d'arbitrage pour la résolution des disputes est developpée. Les elements essentiels de cette proposition sont l'approbation en avance des changements aux régulations, les périodes d'arbitration très courtes et les prononcements de jugements décentralisés.     

De Industrieele „Trusts” der Vereenigde Staten van noord-Amerika

November 19015 December     

北极冰川融化影响几何？

北极冰川融化将使跨北极通航成为可能，运输公司可减少40％的航运距离。马六甲海峡也将不再垄断国际通运。国际经济将进一步融合。     

Playing for Your Own Audience: Extremism in Two‐Party Elections

This paper considers a two‐party election with a single‐dimensional policy space. We assume that each voter has a higher probability of observing the position of the party he is affiliated with than the position of the other party, an assumption that is consistent with the National Election Studies (NES) electoral data set. In equilibrium, the two parties locate away from the median, because the voters who dislike a party's platform observe its policy choice with a lower probability, and its own audience like policy choices that cater to its taste. As the asymmetry in voter information or the cost of voting increases, the parties adopt more extreme platforms, while if there are fewer extreme voters the opposite effect occurs. Making voters more symmetrically informed about the two parties' platforms increases the welfare of society, while asymmetric information acquisition by the voters is worse than no information acquisition at all.     

On Conditional Density Estimation

With the aim of mitigating the possible problem of negativity in the estimation of the conditional density function, we introduce a so-called re-weighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator. The proposed RNW estimator is constructed by a slight modification of the well-known Nadaraya-Watson smoother. With a detailed asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that the RNW smoother preserves the superior large-sample bias property of the local linear smoother of the conditional density recently proposed in the literature. As a matter of independent statistical interest, the limit distribution of the RNW estimator is also derived.     

Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions*

The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.