Who Cites What?

The present paper analyses citations in the work of a large number of PhD students. We show that the pattern of citations of journal articles, books and other reference material differs substantially across areas within economics. An investigation of reciprocal citations reveals a surprisingly low degree of communication among the Group of Eight universities and a high propensity to cite authors from the same institution, especially supervisors. We also analyse the Australian share of cited works, and identify journals, articles and authors that PhD students value highly.     

Institutional framing and perceptions of fairness

This paper's goal is to construct a positive theory of economic fairness. Using the theoretical schema developed by Hurwicz and others, the paper makes precise the notions of an “institution,” “fairness fraiming,” and “institutional framing.” Four fairness propositions yield an important corollary: the economic environment, the operative institution and history give meaning to the often used FORMAL PRINCIPLE OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE (“equals should be treated equally, and unequals unequellay, in proportion to relevant similarities and differences”). We support these four propositions and corollary by an analysis of laboratory, survey, and anecdotal evidence. Finally we describe a number of areas for future research. The authors would like to thank Allen Buchanan, James Buchanan, Joel Feinberg, Elizabeth Hoffman, David Schmitz, Linda Schnabel Stizer, Vernon Smith, Richard Wagner, the participants in the Aspen Institute's Conference on “Local Justice and Fair Allocation”, the members of the Industrial Organization Workshop of the Department of Economics at the University of Arizona, and panel participants at the Public Choice Society Meeting for their help and comments at various stages of this paper's preparation. Responsibility for errors is the authors' alone.     

Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions

The use of predetermined variables to represent public information and time-variation has produced new insights about asset pricing models, but the literature on mutual fund performance has not exploited these insights. This paper advocates conditional performance evaluation in which the relevant expectations are conditioned on public information variables. We modify several classical performance measures to this end and find that the predetermined variables are both statistically and economically significant. Conditioning on public information controls for biases in traditional market timing models and makes the average performance of the mutual funds in our sample look better.     

Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure

Analysis, model selection and forecasting in univariate time series models can be routinely carried out for models in which the model order is relatively small. Under an ARMA assumption, classical estimation, model selection and forecasting can be routinely implemented with the Box–Jenkins time domain representation. However, this approach becomes at best prohibitive and at worst impossible when the model order is high. In particular, the standard assumption of stationarity imposes constraints on the parameter space that are increasingly complex. One solution within the pure AR domain is the latent root factorization in which the characteristic polynomial of the AR model is factorized in the complex domain, and where inference questions of interest and their solution are expressed in terms of the implied (reciprocal) complex roots; by allowing for unit roots, this factorization can identify any sustained periodic components. In this paper, as an alternative to identifying periodic behaviour, we concentrate on frequency domain inference and parameterize the spectrum in terms of the reciprocal roots, and, in addition, incorporate Gegenbauer components. We discuss a Bayesian solution to the various inference problems associated with model selection involving a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. One key development presented is a new approach to forecasting that utilizes a Metropolis step to obtain predictions in the time domain even though inference is being carried out in the frequency domain. This approach provides a more complete Bayesian solution to forecasting for ARMA models than the traditional approach that truncates the infinite AR representation, and extends naturally to Gegenbauer ARMA and fractionally differenced models.     

R. J. Chambers on Securities and Obscurities: Making a Case for the Reform of the Law of Company Accounts in the 1970s

This study examines the contribution of Raymond J. Chambers to the British inflation accounting debate in the early‐to‐mid 1970s, from the perspective of the reception of his book, Securities and Obscurities: A Case for Reform of the Law of Company Accounts, published in 1973. To structure the empirical narrative, drawing on previously unpublished documents from the R. J. Chambers Archives, we employ Czarniawska and Joerges’ ( 1996 ) notion of the ‘travel of ideas’, and Mumford’s ( 1979 ) observation of the existence of ‘inflation accounting debate cycles’. The result is a narrative that traces the environmental and material circumstances that led to Chambers’ book having a lesser impact on the British inflation debate than one would expect based on the international exposure of his ideas, his influence at the time, and the empirical rigour of his proposal. The purpose of this exercise is to assess how contextual factors, such as the choice of publisher, use of promotional material, and distribution methods, can be as (or more) important than the substance of the proposed ideas, arguments, and solutions.     

经济增长的变化本质

在过去的一个世纪中,富裕国家的经济本质已经发生了巨大的变化。因此,文章提出“技术生理演变(technophysio evolution)”概念,即快速技术变化和人类生理进步的协同作用。这主要表现在以下三个方面：(1)消费结构和工作体闲时间分配的改变;(2)经济和家庭产出分配方面受高水平经济成就的影响;(3)全球市场迅速急剧转向耐用消费品和高科技服务。