Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

When Hard Heads Collide

ABSTRACT . In this article, Loren Lomasky begins with a firsthand account of some of the people he interacted with at the Center for the Study of Public Choice in Blacksburg and some of what he learned there. Aside from the revealing personal anecdotes, we learn something of the culture clash he experienced as a visiting fellow at the Center and about his introduction to intellectual activity as “blood sport.” Lomasky then reviews some of the strengths and weaknesses of public choice theory from a philosophical point of view and offers some suggestions. These primarily concern the theory's narrow focus on the material nature of interests. Finally, Lomasky offers techniques for including moral interests in the deliberations of decision makers.     

The maintenance, funding and modification of retiree medical benefits

Retiree medical benefits are an ever-growing concern as costs escalate and the date for implementation of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 106 approaches. These authors summarize case law relevant to employers' right to modify or terminate benefits and discuss methods of funding theses liabilities.     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.     

Implementing a new inventory management system

Determining the type of inventory management system to use in a hospital depends as much on one's technical abilities as its does with the culture of the institution and the vendor's capabilities.     

The use of statistical techniques in par-level management

The total quality management movement has allowed the reintroduction of statistics in the materials management workplace. Statistical methods can be applied to the par level management process with significant results.     

Putting supplies at the bedside via the Friesen concept

Hospitals designed using the concepts of architect Gordon Friesen are especially conducive to reengineering for patient-focused care. The Nurserver, a closet-like space outside each patient's room, makes it very easy for hospitals to redesign their methods for delivering supplies so that caregivers seldom have to go more than a few feet to get what they need. In this article, staff of Monongalia General Hospital in Morgantown, West Virginia, describe how they have used the Friesen design to modify supply distribution processes.