The Life History of Cohorts of Exits from German Manufacturing

An investigation of the life history of three cohorts of exits based on longitudinal data covering the population of all manufacturing firms in a German federal state reveals three empirical regularities: (1) Although the probability of exit tends to decline with age ceteris paribus, only about a quarter of all exits is from the group of young firms aged five years or less. (2) Only a minor fraction of exits lived through a period of continous decline of employment for five years or more before closing down. (3) The "impact effect" of job loss due to exits can differ sharply from the "long run effect".     

Hedging Strategies for Grain Processors

Price risk management confronting grain processors differs from that faced by conventional hedgers, especially when futures markets for outputs do not exist. Three components of this problem are addressed in this study. One is the relationship between input and output prices, which are impacted in part by the structure and conduct of an industry. In some cases, these are highly correlated and in others they are not. The second refers to the hedge horizon or how far forward a firm should cover its inherent and persistent short cash positions. This study incorporates these relationships into a utility maximizing model to evaluate hedging effectiveness relative to traditional hedging strategies for processors. Finally, stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare hedging strategies when output is sold at a fixed price for future delivery. Secondary data from the bread‐baking industry are used for empirical analysis. Results indicate that hedging decisions are impacted by these relationships and affect firm risk exposure. La gestion du risque de prix des conditionneurs de grain diffère de celle des opérateurs en couverture traditionnels, surtout lorsqu'il n'existe pas de marchés de contrats à terme pour les extrants. La présente étude traite de trois aspects du problème. Tout d'abord, il y a la relation entre le prix de l'intrant et le prix de l'extrant, prix qu'influencent en partie la structure et le comportement d'une industrie. Dans certains cas, la corrélation est très étroite et dans d'autres, elle ne l'est pas. Ensuite, il y a l'horizon de couverture ou jusqu'où dans le futur une entreprise devrait‐elle couvrir ses faibles positions de trésorerie inhérentes et soutenues. Dans la présente étude, nous avons intégré ces relations dans un modèle de maximisation de l'utilité pour évaluer l'efficacité des opérations de couverture par rapport aux stratégies de couverture traditionnelles des conditionneurs. Finalement, l'analyse de la dominance stochastique est utilisée pour comparer les stratégies de couverture lorsque l'extrant est vendu à un prix fixe pour livraison à terme. Des données secondaires issues de l'industrie de la boulangerie ont été utilisées pour l'analyse empirique. Les résultats ont indiqué que ces liens influaient sur les décisions de couverture et que ces décisions avaient des répercussions sur l'exposition au risque de l'entreprise.     

Inferring Market Structure from Customer Response to Competing and Complementary Products

We consider customer influences on market structure, arguing that market structure should explain the extent to which any given set of market offerings are substitutes or complements. We describe recent additions to the market structure analysis literature and identify promising directions for new research in market structure analysis. Impressive advances in data collection, statistical methodology and information technology provide unique opportunities for researchers to build market structure tools that can assist real-time marketing decision-making.     

Women Entrepreneurs and Family Firm Heterogeneity: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Family firms add to the economic and social well-being of countries. While research on heterogeneity of family firms is gaining momentum, it has mostly been gender-neutral. The study fills this gap by examining heterogeneity of family firms owned and managed by women, in the context of a developing country—Brazil. The study draws upon the resource-based view of the firm to investigate the relationships between firm performance, family involvement, and financial resources at the start-up phase. An inductive analysis reveals two patterns. First, family firms that are started with the family achieve better performance than firms that are launched without the family and later evolve into a family business. Second, family firms that are funded with women entrepreneur’s own savings achieve worse performance than family firms that are started with borrowed funds. The results are useful for strategic decision making in fostering family businesses headed by women and proactive public policies for future innovation to enhance the success of women entrepreneurs.     

Seller experimentation and trade

Review of Economic Design - This paper studies the effect of trade opportunities on a seller’s incentive to acquire information through experimentation. I characterize the unique equilibrium...     

Bailouts and the modeling of bank distress

In this article, we develop a model for predicting distress events among large banks. We show that a bailout possibility induces different behaviors among small and large banks, and the proposed failure prediction model for large banks is thus considerably different from that for small banks. Major bank-level fundamentals show opposite conjecture directions for large versus small banks. The Tier 1 capital ratio, which is under the scrutiny of regulators and investors, has almost no distress prediction power among large banks. However, banks rescued by governments tend to maintain a lower Tier 1 ratio. The cost of funding in large banks is negatively correlated with the probability of failure, reflecting the fact that lenders internalize the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) policy and demand a lower interest rate from TBTF banks.