Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

Multiperiod Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategies with Mortality Risk and Environment Uncertainty

Abstract

In this article we investigate three related investment-consumption problems for a risk-averse investor: (1) an investment-only problem that involves utility from only terminal wealth, (2) an investment-consumption problem that involves utility from only consumption, and (3) an extended investment-consumption problem that involves utility from both consumption and terminal wealth. Although these problems have been studied quite extensively in continuous-time frameworks, we focus on discrete time. Our contributions are (1) to model these investmentconsumption problems using a discrete model that incorporates the environment risk and mortality risk, in addition to the market risk that is typically considered, and (2) to derive explicit expressions of the optimal investment-consumption strategies to these modeled problems. Furthermore, economic implications of our results are presented. It is reassuring that many of our findings are consistent with the well-known results from the continuous-time models, even though our models have the additional features of modeling the environment uncertainty and the uncertain exit time.     

论中小商业银行对中国中小企业融资支持

分析了中小商业银行是中小企业融资的重要渠道，对中小企业的成长起着重要作用。因此，大力发展中小商业银行，完善中小金融体系是解决我国融资难的一个根本出路。     

Judgment effects of familiarity with an analyst’s name

We conduct an experiment with MBA students where we manipulate whether participants are exposed to an analyst’s name in Stage 1, and whether they are given a cue in Stage 2 about the particular analyst’s prior performance as an All-star analyst. We find that in the absence of a favorable performance cue about the analyst, mere exposure to the analyst’s name enhances perceived analyst credibility, which in turn influences the investors’ earnings estimates. This suggests a benefit to analysts in terms of building credibility merely through media exposure that cannot be explained by performance. In fact, a diagnostic cue such as the analyst’s high prior performance no longer matters to investors once they have prior exposure to the analyst’s name. However, this enhancement of an analyst’s credibility through investors’ prior exposure to his/her name is reversed when the analyst’s forecast turns out to be inaccurate.     

《航空电气》任务驱动型教材编写的研究

本文以《航空电气》任务驱动型校本教材的开发为例,对任务驱动型教材编写的流程进行了探讨,并且提出了不足和展望。     

Corporate governance and the probability of default

We employ Merton's probability of default as a continuous ex‐ante measure of the likelihood of firm failure and dynamic panel generalised method of moments to better characterise the relationship between corporate governance and the chance of default. In doing so, we overcome limitations of discrete proxies widely used in previous studies and more completely account for endogeneity issues permeating this area of research. While initial testing designed to facilitate comparison with previous studies suggests a significant relationship between the probability of default and executive pay, board structure and ownership structure, once endogeneity concerns are accounted for, no such relationship remains.