Potential measures and expected present value of operating costs until ruin in renewal risk models with general interclaim times

In this paper, a Sparre Andersen risk process with arbitrary interclaim time distribution is considered. We analyze various ruin-related quantities in relation to the expected present value of total operating costs until ruin, which was first proposed by Cai et al. [(2009a). On the expectation of total discounted operating costs up to default and its applications. Advances in Applied Probability 41(2), 495–522] in the piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk model. The analysis in this paper is applicable to a wide range of quantities including (i) the insurer's expected total discounted utility until ruin; and (ii) the expected discounted aggregate claim amounts until ruin. On one hand, when claims belong to the class of combinations of exponentials, explicit results are obtained using the ruin theoretic approach of conditioning on the first drop via discounted densities (e.g. Willmot [(2007). On the discounted penalty function in the renewal risk model with general interclaim times. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 41(1), 17–31]). On the other hand, without any distributional assumption on the claims, we also show that the expected present value of total operating costs until ruin can be expressed in terms of some potential measures, which are common tools in the literature of Lévy processes (e.g. Kyprianou [(2014). Fluctuations of L'evy processes with applications: introductory lectures, 2nd ed. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag]). These potential measures are identified in terms of the discounted distributions of ascending and descending ladder heights. We shall demonstrate how the formulas resulting from the two seemingly different methods can be reconciled. The cases of (i) stationary renewal risk model and (ii) surplus-dependent premium are briefly discussed as well. Some interesting invariance properties in the former model are shown to hold true, extending a well-known ruin probability result in the literature. Numerical illustrations concerning the expected total discounted utility until ruin are also provided.     

Insurance of Household Risks and the Rebalancing of the Chinese Economy: Health Insurance,Health Expenses and Household Savings

This paper studies the effects of a public insurance system, the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on household savings in rural China. We develop a theoretical model in which we explain the impact of health insurance on savings through the impact of health insurance on out‐of‐pocket (OOP) health expense given the household level of wealth and seriousness of illness. We test the model empirically using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We run endogenous and exogenous quantile regressions to evaluate the effects of NCMS participation on the distributions of household savings and OOP health expense. The impact of NCMS varies with the seriousness of illness. The NCMS induces an increase in OOP health expense for mild illness and, inversely, a decrease in health payments for more serious illnesses. The NCMS also leads to a higher incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. The impact of the NCMS, given a certain state of illness, also varies with the household level of wealth. Poor households face health expense for both mild and serious illnesses. As the NCMS has opposite effects on the OOP expense for these two kinds of illness, we observe no effect on poor households’ precautionary savings. Because the decrease in OOP health expense for mild illness is larger for less poor households, the NCMS induces a decrease in their savings. For the most affluent households, the higher decrease in OOP spending on most moderate illness is dominated by a sharp increase in catastrophic expense, causing an increase in savings. To significantly reduce household savings and enhance household consumption, the NCMS has to offer better coverage against both serious and catastrophic health risks.     

Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies

In this paper we explore the ‘Mrs. Machlup's Wardrobe’ hypothesis to understand the growing trend of Latin American economies amassing large stocks of international reserves. Using annual data from 1980 to 2007, we examine the relevance of the argument that economies continue to add to their existing reserves stock in order to keep up with the Joneses. We find strong evidence of presence of the Joneses effect. The effect is robust to the inclusion of traditional determinants of reserve accumulation as well as region specific factors including commodity exports that set the Latin American economies apart from other emerging economies.     

Exchange rate dynamics under alternative optimal interest rate rules

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results — exchange rate changes “calibrated” from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.     

How does customer motivational orientation affect satisfaction?

This study examines the link between customer motivational orientation and customer satisfaction in the Chinese context. The customer motivational orientation–satisfaction model was tested on 349 Chinese bank customers in Macao, China. Results of structural equation modelling indicated that task-oriented and interaction-oriented customers were not equally responsive to the financial services provided. Specifically, task motivational orientation was directly and indirectly related to customer satisfaction through customer perceived service quality, whereas interaction motivational orientation only linked to customer satisfaction through customer perceived service quality as a mediator. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Blockholding and market reactions to equity offerings in China

We examine the impact of blockholding on shareholders' wealth in equity offerings in China. We find that investors generally react negatively to equity-offering announcements by firms with high blockholding. A one-standard-deviation (12%) increase in blockholding leads to a 0.59% reduction in firm valuation over a seven-day window and a 5.50% reduction over a 2-year period surrounding the announcement. Private (non-governmental) blockholding is associated with a more negative valuation effect than governmental blockholding over the long-term event window. The above result holds only for financially constrained firms but not unconstrained firms. Further analysis shows that firms with private blockholding have greater positive cash–cash flow sensitivity than firms with governmental blockholding, and again, the result holds for financial constrained firms only. Collectively, the findings suggest that equity offerings in China signal the issuers' future financial constraints, but the findings do not support the agency hypothesis of state ownership.     

A discrete choice experiment to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in the urban population in Colombia

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in an urban Colombian population.

Methods: A Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) was conducted. Urban Colombian HIV patients were asked to repetitively choose between two hypothetical treatments that differ in regard to five attributes ‘effect on life expectancy’, ‘effect on physical activity’, ‘risk of moderate side effects, ‘accessibility to clinic’ and ‘economic cost to access controls’. Twelve choice sets were made using an efficient design. A Mixed Logit Panel Model was used for the analysis and subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, education level and sexual preference.

Results: A total of 224 HIV patients were included. All attributes were significant, indicating that there were differences between at least two levels of each attribute. Patients preferred to be able to perform all physical activity without difficulty, to have large positive effects on life expectancy, to travel less than 2?h, to have lower risk of side-effects and to have subsidized travel costs. The attributes ‘effect on physical activity’ and ‘effects on life expectancy’ were deemed the most important. Sub-analyses showed that higher educated patients placed more importance on the large positive effects of HIV treatment, and a more negative preference for subsidized travel cost (5% level).

Limitations: A potential limitation is selection bias as it is difficult to make a systematic urban/rural division of respondents. Additional, questionnaires were partly administered in the waiting rooms, which potentially led to some noise in the data.

Conclusions: Findings suggests that short-term efficacy (i.e. effect on physical activity) and long-term efficacy (i.e. effect on life expectancy) are the most important treatment characteristics for HIV urban patients in Colombia. Preference data could provide relevant information for clinical and policy decision-making to optimize HIV care.     

The augmented Black–Litterman model: a ranking-free approach to factor-based portfolio construction and beyond

The Fama and French factor-ranking approach (1992, 1993, etc.) has been extensively applied in quantitative fund management. However, this approach suffers from hidden factor view, information inefficiency, etc. issues. Based on the Black–Litterman model (1992; as explained in Cheung 2010b Cheung, W. 2010b. The Black–Litterman model explained. J. Asset Mgmt., 11: 229–243. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), we develop a technique that endogenizes the ranking process and elegantly resolves these issues. This model explicitly seeks forward-looking factor views and smoothly blends them to deliver robust allocation to securities. Our numerical experiments show this is an intuitive and practical framework for factor-based portfolio construction, and beyond. This article features: (1) a new and unified framework for strategy combination, factor mimicking and security-specific bets; (2) an elegant and ranking-free approach to factor style construction; (3) worked examples based on the FTSE EUROTOP 100 universe; (4) insight into the classic issue of confidence parameter setting; and (5) implementation guidance in an appendix.