Tail mutual exclusivity and Tail-VaR lower bounds

In this paper, we extend the concept of mutual exclusivity proposed by [Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. (1999). The safest dependence structure among risks. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 25, 11–21] to its tail counterpart and baptize this new dependency structure as tail mutual exclusivity. Probability levels are first specified for each component of the random vector. Under this dependency structure, at most one exceedance over the corresponding Value-at-Risks (VaRs) is possible, the other components being zero in such a case. No condition is imposed when all components stay below the VaRs. Several properties of this new negative dependence concept are derived. We show that this dependence structure gives rise to the smallest value of Tail-VaR (TVaR) of a sum of risks within a given Fréchet space, provided that the probability level of the TVaR is close enough to one.     

Emotional intelligence,job insecurity,and psychological strain among real estate agents: a test of mediation and moderation models

We develop two models of the relationships between emotional intelligence (EI), job insecurity, and psychological strain. The moderation model suggests that EI reduces psychological strain by helping individuals cope with job insecurity when it arises. The mediation model suggests that EI reduces psychological strain by enabling individuals to conserve resources, thereby reducing their experience of job insecurity. Our results, based on a sample of 232 real estate agents, show that job insecurity mediates the relationship between EI and psychological strain. Contrary to what the moderation model suggested, the positive relationship between job insecurity and psychological strain was found to be stronger when EI was higher. Overall, the results provide more nuanced insights into the role of EI in psychological strain.     

What moves the gold market?

In this article, we provide a detailed characterization of the intraday return volatility in gold futures contracts traded on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The approach allows the study of intraday patterns, interday ARCH effects, and announcement effects in a coherent framework. We show that the intraday patterns exert a profound impact on the dynamics of return volatility. Among the 23 U.S. macroeconomic announcements, we identify employment reports, gross domestic product, consumer price index, and personal income as having the greatest impact. Finally, by appropriately filtering out the intraday patterns, we find that the high‐frequency returns reveal long‐memory volatility dependencies in the gold market, which have important implications on the pricing of long‐term gold options and the determination of optimal hedge ratios. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:257–278, 2001     

Diversification benefits of commodity futures

The finance literature seems to be in support of the diversification benefits of adding commodity futures to an existing portfolio. Yet no empirical work has been performed to test whether the benefits are indeed statistically significant. This paper addresses several unresolved issues concerning the potential diversification benefits of commodities. First, we attempt to ascertain whether the alleged diversification benefits exist and are statistically significant. Second, to what extent are the diversification benefits unique to US investors? Would investors of a resource-based economy like Canada also benefit from adding commodities to their portfolios? Third, recent studies indicate that correlations among international equity returns are higher during bear markets than during bull markets. This type of regime-switching correlation behavior will mean lower diversification benefits from international investments when investors face a bearish environment at home. Do commodity futures display the same type of regime-switching behavior? To what extent do commodity futures offer real diversification benefits that are robust over time and across regimes? Finally, commodities may appear to be an asset for the more adventurous investors with higher risk tolerance. We want to know what type of investors should hold commodities. We demonstrate that the diversification benefit of commodities is a far more complex phenomenon than often understood in the finance literature.     

Valuation and incentive effects of hurdle rate executive stock options

Traditional executive stock options are often criticized for inherently weak links between pay and performance. Hurdle rate executive stock options represent a viable improvement. However, valuing these options presents extraordinary analytic difficulties. With a constant dividend yield the strike price becomes a path-dependent function of the stock price and exact analytic valuation is intractable. To solve this problem, we apply the Monte Carlo valuation approach developed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 4:113–147, 2001) to estimate the value of path-dependent American options. We also extend the methodology to incorporate the theoretical framework by Ingersoll (J Bus 79:453–487, 2006) to permit subjective valuation influenced by an executive’s risk aversion.

Progressive taxation and corporate liquidation policies with mean-reverting earnings

This paper develops a real options model of an all-equity financed firm that receives mean-reverting earnings and is subject to progressive taxation. Tax progression arises from an exogenously given tax exemption threshold such that the firm pays no corporate income taxes should its earnings be less than this threshold. The firm possesses a perpetual option to liquidate its operation for a deterministic salvage value at any time. We show that the firm optimally exercises the liquidation option at the first instant when its earnings reach an endogenously determined threshold (the liquidation trigger) from above. Using numerical analysis, we show that the liquidation trigger is higher or lower than the exogenously given tax exemption threshold, depending on whether the tax exemption is below or above a unique critical level, respectively. We further show that the liquidation trigger is strictly decreasing for all tax exemption thresholds less than the critical level, and can be hump-shaped for all tax exemption thresholds greater than the critical level, especially when the salvage value is small. Corporate income taxes as such are not neutral when tax schedules are progressive.     

Managerial ownership and performance: A commentary essay

Florackis, Kostakis, and Ozkan [Florackis, C., Kostakis, A., and Ozkan, A., 2008. Managerial ownership and performance, Journal of Business Research, forthcoming] empirically examine the exact nature of the relationship between managerial ownership and corporate performance in the framework of semi-parametric regression. This commentary explores the authors' contribution to the corporate governance literature in the light of recent advances in semi-parametric regression. The commentary also considers how Florackis et al.'s findings align with important, emerging work in the corporate governance literature.     

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing one. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence that East Asian economies including China and Japan are accumulating an excessive amount of international reserves.     

Assessing the Role of Ecotourism Training in Changing Participants' Pro-Environmental Knowledge,Attitude and Behaviour

Ecotourism training is usually considered to be undertaken only by tourism practitioners for professional development. However, ecotourism training has a more important role to play, as it could be adopted as a long-term strategy for environmental conservation by altering people's attitudes and behaviours towards greater environmental responsibility. In this study, the role of ecotourism training with respect to pro-environmental knowledge enhancement as well as attitude and behavioural changes is investigated. A questionnaire survey was conducted on participants of an ecotourism training programme. Participants' environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviours were evaluated using a pre- and post-test method. The results indicated that participants demonstrated a significant increase in environmental knowledge after the training. Moreover, participants' demographic characteristics such as age group, occupation and salary are significantly associated with the improvement in knowledge, change in pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Participants tend to adopt environmentally responsible attitudes and behaviours after completion of ecotourism training.     

人民币的困境

一 中国的经济发展是一个奇迹,发展得那么好,人民币币值强劲应该是大好形势.但是现在我们国家在人民币问题上遇到了困境,这些问题处理得不好,会影响中国的发展.