外商投资与中国经济发展──产业和区域分析证据

本文将有关外商直接投资影响的分析 ,与中国经济的特定发展模式联系起来 ,从中得出两项分析结果。一是在产业发展层面 ,外商投资确实有助于改进资源配置效率 ,然而这种贡献却是以妨碍生产效率改进为代价的 ;二是在区域发展层面 ,以进口替代加资本深化为特征的“上海模式” ,在促进地区和全国经济发展方面 ,确实优于以出口导向加劳动密集为特征的“广东模式” ,只是前一模式本身存在着严重的可持续性问题     

On exact D-optimal designs with 2 two-level factors and n autocorrelated observations

In this paper we consider the exact D-optimal designs for estimation of the unknown parameters in the two factors, each at only two-level, main effects model with autocorrelated errors. The vector of the n random errors in the observed responses is assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)). The exact D-optimal designs seek the optimal combinations of the design levels as well as the optimal run orders, so that the determinant of the information matrix of BLUEs for the unknown parameters is maximized. Bora-Senta and Moyssiadis (1999) gave some conjectures about the exact D-optimal designs based on their experience of several exhaustive searches. In this paper their conjectures are partially proved to be true.Received: January 2003 / Accepted: October 2003Partially supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 91-2115-M-008-013.Supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 89-2118-M-110-003.     

Can hedge funds time market liquidity?

We explore a new dimension of fund managers' timing ability by examining whether they can time market liquidity through adjusting their portfolios' market exposure as aggregate liquidity conditions change. Using a large sample of hedge funds, we find strong evidence of liquidity timing. A bootstrap analysis suggests that top-ranked liquidity timers cannot be attributed to pure luck. In out-of-sample tests, top liquidity timers outperform bottom timers by 4.0–5.5% annually on a risk-adjusted basis. We also find that it is important to distinguish liquidity timing from liquidity reaction, which primarily relies on public information. Our results are robust to alternative explanations, hedge fund data biases, and the use of alternative timing models, risk factors, and liquidity measures. The findings highlight the importance of understanding and incorporating market liquidity conditions in investment decision making.     

Stock market prices do not follow random walks: evidence from a simple specification test

In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weeklystock market returns by comparing variance estimators derivedfrom data sampled at different frequencies. The random walkmodel is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (1962-1985)and for all subperiods for a variety of aggregate returns indexesand size-sorted portfolios. Although the rejections are duelargely to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be attributedcompletely to the effects of infrequent trading or time-varyingvolatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk forweekly returns does not support a mean-reverting model of assetprices.     

Applicability of the market appeal—robusticity matrix: a case study of heritage tourism

Hong Kong is a city where contemporary global culture coexists with traditional Chinese heritage. One way of promoting Hong Kong's traditional built heritage is to develop a number of linked sites as a heritage trail. For helping the development of such, this study evaluates the applicability of the market appeal—robusticity matrix on heritage tourism development, by assessing the potential for tourism in the single-surname villages of Hong Kong's New Territories. The study techniques include documentary research, questionnaire survey and interviews. The findings indicate the matrix is effective for enabling the assessment of heritage tourism potential because it simultaneously demonstrates the importance of two major considerations for both tourism industry and heritage managers, namely market appeal—an asset's appeal to tourists, and robusticity—its ability to endure visitation. The shortcomings of the model includes the inappropriateness of the technical term “product design needs” in the market appeal subset and lack of community concerns in the robusticity subset of the matrix.     

Risk,uncertainty and monetary policy

The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility (“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being stronger. The result holds in a structural vector autoregressive framework, controlling for business cycle movements and using a variety of identification schemes for the vector autoregression in general and monetary policy shocks in particular. The effect of monetary policy on risk aversion is also apparent in regressions using high frequency data.     

Value Creation in Brand Alliances: A Dynamic Conceptualization

The objective of this article is to conceptualize the value creation process in brand alliances using a dynamic approach, based upon the literature on strategic alliances and inter organizational relationships, to explain the importance of organizational components in brand alliances. The research question is to identify the key components which allow the creation and sustaining of value: context, actors, objectives, behaviors, resources, and governance mechanisms, internal and external conditions affecting the value creation process. Then the framework is applied in case studies of brand alliances in the food market. We show that the impact of these components depends on the nature of the organizations involved, on market conditions and on the manner resources and governance mechanisms are combined together.     

What do analysts do? Discussion of “Information interpretation or information discovery: which role of analysts do investors value more?”

Three decades of accounting and finance research has extensively studied the outputs from financial analysts. However, there is sparse systematic evidence on what analysts do to generate their outputs in the form of forecasts, recommendations, and research reports. Livnat and Zhang (Rev Account Stud, 2012) provide interesting new evidence regarding the relative amount of value added that analysts produce by examining investors?? reaction to analysts?? forecast revisions issued promptly after firms?? public disclosures compared with those issued at other times. Their analysis shows that prompt revisions are associated with larger returns, which the authors interpret as evidence that analysts?? ability to interpret public disclosures is more valuable to investors. Three issues bear consideration in the interpretation of these findings.