Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India

This paper examines the spillover effects and the causality between inflation, output growth and its uncertainties for India. Using monthly data for the period from April 1980 to April 2011, we estimated a bi-variate GARCH in mean with BEKK representations. This study differs from the earlier works where the parameters in the BEKK representations are estimated individually and the inferences are drawn on the basis of the individual lagged variance, covariance, and error terms from the respective equations. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation uncertainty seems to have significant negative impact on output growth and positive impact on output uncertainty and there is a positive influence of output uncertainty on the inflation. More importantly, there are spillovers and volatility transmission effects between the macroeconomic uncertainties where the volatility in output growth is significantly influenced by the shocks and volatility in inflation.

     

外资进入、竞争与性别就业差异

在中国性别就业差异持续扩大的背景下，文章基于2004-2007年的中国工业企业数据库检验了外资进入是如何通过竞争效应对企业性别就业差异产生影响的。结果显示，外资进入程度越高的地区与行业具有越低的性别就业差异，外资进入程度每增加1%，我国内资企业女性就业份额将会增加0.0407%，且这一结果在考虑了抽样偏倚、不同外资范围的界定、使用不同外资进入程度衡量标准和控制内生性后依然十分稳健。进一步的研究显示，外资进入通过提高企业面临的竞争程度来促使以利润最大化为目标的企业雇佣更多成本较低的女性劳动力，进而降低性别就业差异。更为重要的是，外资进入产生的竞争效应对于性别差异的影响在不同受教育群体之间存在差异，其对受过高等教育，特别是受过研究生以上教育的群体影响最大。文章结论表明，在经济全球化背景下完善市场竞争机制和提高女性受教育程度将有利于减少性别就业差异。此外，文章也为研究外资进入的社会经济影响提供了不一样的思路。     

退社行为对合作社可持续发展的影响分析——来自渤海湾优势区211户退社果农的实证

基于目前合作社中存在的农户退社现象,本文利用211个有效样本实证分析了果农退社行为与果农合作社可持续发展的关系。研究发现:其一,从整体看,果农退社的四种方式均会对果农合作社可持续发展产生显著的负向影响,且负向影响程度由大到小依次为被迫退社、盲从退社、主动退社、隐形退社。其二,从细分维度看,一方面,主动退社、被迫退社和盲从退社会对合作社内部凝聚力、成员积极性产生负向影响,而隐形退社则对这二者无影响;另一方面,四种退社方式均会对合作社组织声誉、政府资源利用产生负向影响。其三,从发展水平看,果农退社方式对高水平果农合作社的可持续发展的负向影响程度相对轻微,且主动退社行为对高水平果农合作社的可持续发展具有显著的正向影响。其四,从比较分析看,果农退社方式对中、低发展水平合作社具有不同程度、不同方向的影响。本文研究结论对合作社管理者采取差异化措施防止退社现象蔓延、优化退社制度安排以及有效利用政府资源具有一定的启发。     

Employee satisfaction trajectories and their effect on customer satisfaction and repatronage intentions

Does improving employee happiness affect customer outcomes? The current study attempts to answer this question by examining the impact of employee satisfaction trajectories (i.e., systematic changes in employee satisfaction) on customer outcomes. After accounting for employees’ initial satisfaction levels, the analyses demonstrate the importance of employee satisfaction trajectories for customer satisfaction and repatronage intentions, as well as identify customer-employee contact as a necessary conduit for their effect. From a macro perspective, employee satisfaction trajectories strongly impact customer satisfaction for companies with significant employee–customer interaction, but not for companies without such interaction. From a micro perspective, employee satisfaction trajectories influence customer repatronage intentions for frequent customers, but not for infrequent customers. These effects are robust to controlling for previous customer evaluations and recent employee evaluations. Overall, these findings extend the dominant view of examining static, employee satisfaction levels and offer important implications for the management of the organizational frontline.

     

Determinants of Geographic Voter Participation Rate Differentials: the 2014 Mid-Term Election

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American.     

中国高速铁路发展分析

根据1996年欧盟96/48号指令对高速铁路的定义，在新建高速专用线上运行时速至少达到250公里的铁路可称作高速铁路。国际铁盟认为，在既有线上提速改造，时速达到200公里以上，也可称为高速铁路。
　　铁路作为一种经济的、大运量交通工具，在许多国家经济和社会生活中占有非常重要的地位，并为本国经济和社会的发展做出了重大的贡献。近年来，国民经济持续快速增长，全社会运输需求总量持续升高。随着人民水平的不断提高和经济结构的优化升级，旅客对运输快捷舒适、经济便利、安全正点等方面的质量要求越来越高，运营速度快、舒适度强、安全性高的高速铁路在我国逐渐兴起。     

Can Agents Be Better Off with Pay Caps?

A popular way to discipline the managers of companies or banks that got into trouble during the recent financial crisis has been to impose caps on managers' pay. Using a small extension of the standard principal–agent model, we argue that pay caps might serve the opposite purpose, because the agent might be better off with a pay cap. Specifically, we show that, given a fixed effort level to be implemented, the agent's expected utility can be decreasing in an upper bound for the agent's reward. The effect of pay caps on the general structure of optimal incentive contracts is also characterized. While an improvement of contracting information always helps the principal, it might increase or decrease the marginal cost of imposing pay caps.