Making judgment calls. The ultimate act of leadership

According to the traditional view, judgment is an event: You make a decision and then move on. Yet Tichy, of the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, and Bennis, of the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, found that good leadership judgment occurs not in a single moment but throughout a process. From their research into the complex phenomenon of leadership judgment, the authors also found that most important judgment calls reside in one of three domains: people, strategy, and crisis. Understanding the essence of leadership judgment is crucial. A leader's calls determine an organization's success or failure and deliver the verdict on his or her career. The first phase of the judgment process is preparation--identifying and framing the issue that demands a decision and aligning and mobilizing key stakeholders. Second is the call itself, And third is acting on the call, learning and adjusting along the way. Good leaders use a "story line"--an articulation of a company's identity, direction, and values--to inform their actions throughout the judgment process. Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, for instance, focused on a story line of Boeing as a world-class competitor and ethical leader to make a judgment call that launched the company's recovery from a string of ethical crises. Good leaders also take advantage of "redo loops" throughout the process, reconsidering the parameters of the decision, relabeling the problem, and redefining the goal in a way that more and more people can accept. Procter & Gamble's A.G. Lafley and Best Buy's Brad Anderson have both used redo loops--in preparation and execution, respectively--to strengthen not only support for their calls but also the outcomes.     

Economic and financial themes in Australian aged care

This contribution reflects the results of work for a review of aged care in Australia. Initial material covers the policy arrangements in place prior to the beginning of the Review in September 2002. The main feature of the contribution is a survey of economic and financial performance of aged care entities not hitherto attempted. Most attention is directed to labour costs in relation to total costs and earnings before interest and taxes. Cross-section analyses are based on institutional differences between providers of services with some operating as “for profit” entities but most are not reflecting their religious, community-based and charitable origins. Locational differences are also examined. The results show a very great disparity in experiences so that notions of the average experience across providers of services cannot be upheld. Differences between the top 10 percent of entities offering services and the bottom quartile are striking. The implications for development of new strategic approaches to policies are clear.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

At Aldus,globalization wasn't an afterthought

At Aldus, entering foreign markets was not a strategy pursued after its products had been successfully marketed in the U.S. Aldus President Paul Brainerd set out from the beginning to build products that could be quickly adapted to local markets. With a strong competitive position in the European Community, the Seattle-based computer software producer now looks to the Pacific Rim.     

Constructivist Negotiation Ethics

The success of Discourse Ethics is premised on the discovery and use of shared values. If this is true what type of negotiation style, especially when used in an intercultural setting, is best suited to make use of shared values. Research focusing on moral arguments between Germans and Americans uncovered an array of shared values. But the existence of shared values, by itself, was not an adequate predictor of a negotiation's success. What did prove to be a predictor of success was the use of a Constructivist style of negotiation by both parties.     

The effectiveness of interest-rate futures contracts for hedging Japanese bonds of different credit quality and duration

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)-traded Japanese 10-year JGB futures contract to hedge portfolios of Japanese bonds of differing maturity and credit quality. The bond portfolios examined are Government, AAA-, and AA-rated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 20 years. Consistent with the recent literature, the study employs univariate methods for calculating hedge ratios based on levels, first differences, and percentage change of each series. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to determine the effectiveness of the calculated hedge ratios for each of the bond portfolios and to determine which approach to calculating hedge ratios is the most effective. The results show that this particular futures contract does provide a good hedge, particularly for those bond terms closest to the 10-year term of the contract. There is some evidence, although not strong, that JGBs are better hedged than AAA and AA bonds. Investors should take some caution when using this futures contract to hedge bond portfolios of different maturities and credit ratings.     

Working Time Mismatch and Subjective Well-being

This study uses nationally representative panel survey data for Australia to identify the role played by mismatches between hours actually worked and working time preferences in contributing to reported levels of job and life satisfaction. Three main conclusions emerge. First, it is not the number of hours worked that matters for subjective well-being, but working time mismatch. Second, overemployment is a more serious problem than is underemployment. Third, while the magnitude of the impact of overemployment may seem small in absolute terms, relative to other variables, such as disability, the effect is quite large.     

Do Chinese corporations take their governance practices abroad? Evidence from Chinese mining subsidiaries in Australia

Directors of firms are theorized to fulfil control, service and resource dependence roles. However, the ways in which directors’ of Chinese MNCs govern their foreign subsidiaries, and perform these roles remains unclear. Building on the institutional logics perspective, this study explores the roles enacted by the boards of directors eight Chinese‐controlled companies in Australia to gain an appreciation of their governance practices. In depth semi‐structured interviews with insider and independent directors, consultants and market analysts were undertaken. A content analysis of company annual reports and web sites complimented primary sources of data on board functions. Findings reveal that control is the most dominant role played by these boards, rather than service or resource dependence. It also appears that the dominant logics of Chinese institutions influence the corporate governance of Chinese MNCs as they internationalize. These findings extend our understanding of corporate governance practices in China and abroad.     

Old technology meets new technology: complementarities,similarities, and alliance formation

Alliance formation is commonplace in many high‐technology industries experiencing radical technological change, where established firms use alliances with new entrants to adapt to technological change, while new entrants benefit from the ability of established players to commercialize the new technology. Despite the prevalence of these alliances, we know little about how these firms choose to ally with specific firms given the range of possible partners they may choose from. This study explores factors that lead to alliance formation between pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. We focus on the alliance tie as the unit of analysis and argue that dyadic complementarities and similarities directly influence alliance formation. We then introduce a contingency model in which the positive effect of complementarities and similarities on alliance formation is moderated by the age of the new technology firm. We draw theoretical attention to the intersection between levels of analysis, in particular, the intersection between dyadic and firm‐level constructs. We find that a pharmaceutical and a biotechnology firm are more likely to enter an alliance based on complementarities when the biotechnology firm is younger. Another noteworthy finding is that proxies for broad capabilities appear to be at least as effective, if not more so, in predicting alliance formation compared to fine‐grained science and technology‐related indicators, like patent cross‐citations or patent common citations. We conclude by suggesting that future studies on alliance formation need to take into account interactions across levels; for example, how dyadic capabilities interact with firm‐level factors, and the advantages and disadvantages of more or less fine‐grained measures of organizational capabilities. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.