永远流淌的大瀑布——欧茨小说《大瀑布》的生态解读

全球变暖,生态危机是当下最热点话题,因为生态危机已经威胁到了人类的生命安全.跟许多有识之士一样,欧茨也关注生态问题,虽然她不是生态主义者,更不是生态女性主义者.近作<大瀑布>探讨了人与人、人与社会、人与自然的关系,尤其是人与自然关系的思考给读者以启示:人类只不过是生物圈的一份子而已,任何生命体都有其内在价值.     

区港合一与厦门港城经济发展

区港合一指的是保税区、港口码头作业区实行一体化运作,在货物监管上采取一线放开、二线管住、区内宽松的自由贸易模式。按照构想,在厦门实行区、港合一,主要是充分利用象屿保税区坐落在东渡港区、区内无居民而便于实行隔离监管的优势,将象屿保税区与东渡港区进行组合,形成一体     

新时期广东省山区人口控制探析

20世纪90年代以来，广东省的山区人口增长速度虽然得到了控制，但与珠江三角洲相比还存在一定差距，地区之间发展也不平衡，生育水平仍不稳定，有效的人口控制机制尚末真正形成。因此，必须建立保障体系 和切合实际人口控制工作新机制，把人口控制工作寓于服务之中；加强计划生育队伍建设，提高队伍整体素质和工作效率。     

当前邮政储蓄机构违规经营原因与治理

近几年来,我国邮政储蓄业务迅速发展,已成为我国金融业中的一支不可忽视力量.邮政储蓄业务在高速发展的同时,也存在高息揽储、汇转储、公款私存、乱拉存款、乱设机构等违规行为,必须改革邮政储蓄机构管理体制、取消利率优惠政策、加强内部管理和强化金融监管,保证邮政储蓄机构健康发展,维护金融秩序稳定.     

论柔性战略在中国邮政发展中的应用

文章阐述了柔性战略的含义和特征,阐述了中国邮政实施柔性战略的必要性,提出了邮政企业实行柔性战略管理的推进策略,以提高邮政的应变能力,适应市场的变化。     

杠杆融资项目净现值计算方法的比较与分析

负债融资具有杠杆效应,有节税收益。计算杠杆融资项目的净现值,如仍按全权益融资项目的方法计算,其结果会有所不同,直接影响投资决策的正确性。本文介绍三种西方常用的杠杆融资项目的净现值计算方法,并对其适用条件进行比较和分析。     

A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.