城镇化会增加居民能源需求吗——基于事实与文献的述评*

城市消耗了中国70%的能源总量,新型城镇化发展要求实现“高城镇化、低能源消耗”。未来的城镇化是否会推高居民能源需求？以往观点往往得出肯定的结论。本文基于典型事实和逻辑推理对此提出质疑,分别对基于“自上而下”和 “自下而上”视角的两类文献进行了综述和比较,并构建了一个融合两种研究视角的传导机制分析框架。在系统总结现有文献的基础上,本文提出未来三个可创新的方向：首先是融合不同学科与视角,将微观居民的用能行为置于城镇化这一动态变迁中进行研究;其次是突破数据和研究方法局限,运用微观数据和实验性方法来科学识别相关性和因果性,并进行政策影响评估;最后是结合国际化视野和规范分析方法来研究中国城镇化中的能源、环境等本土问题,并凝练形成城镇低碳化发展的“中国模式”与“中国经验”。     

高校扩招与教育回报率的城乡差异——基于断点回归的设计

文章基于中国家庭收入调查项目数据（2007年与2013年）,在断点回归设计的框架下分析1999年实施的高校扩招政策对城乡居民受教育年限、收入及教育回报率的影响。结果表明：第一,高校扩招政策的实施使农村居民的平均受教育年限提高了0.59年左右,使城镇居民的平均受教育年限提高了0.85年左右。第二,在断点回归的设计下,农村居民的教育回报率大约为11%,城镇居民的教育回报率大约为8%,高于OLS的估计。虽然实证结果显示教育回报并不存在城乡间的马太效应,但并不意味者城乡间教育发展与收入差距缩小。第三,高校扩招政策一方面显著促进了城镇居民低收入群体教育回报的提升,有效抑制了城镇居民中可能出现的收入差异扩大的"马太效应"。另一方面,高校扩招政策使得农村居民高收入群体教育回报高于低收入群体,在一定程度上导致了农村居民收入差异扩大的"马太效应"。     

Progressive taxation and corporate liquidation policies with mean-reverting earnings

This paper develops a real options model of an all-equity financed firm that receives mean-reverting earnings and is subject to progressive taxation. Tax progression arises from an exogenously given tax exemption threshold such that the firm pays no corporate income taxes should its earnings be less than this threshold. The firm possesses a perpetual option to liquidate its operation for a deterministic salvage value at any time. We show that the firm optimally exercises the liquidation option at the first instant when its earnings reach an endogenously determined threshold (the liquidation trigger) from above. Using numerical analysis, we show that the liquidation trigger is higher or lower than the exogenously given tax exemption threshold, depending on whether the tax exemption is below or above a unique critical level, respectively. We further show that the liquidation trigger is strictly decreasing for all tax exemption thresholds less than the critical level, and can be hump-shaped for all tax exemption thresholds greater than the critical level, especially when the salvage value is small. Corporate income taxes as such are not neutral when tax schedules are progressive.     

制造传统——关于傣族泼水节及其相关新年话语的研究

有关泼水节即傣历新年的说法在当代学术界已成定论。然而,为什么这一节日庆典的日期不在傣历的一月一日？对此,既有研究并未给出令人满意的解释。在对相关文献进行梳理和作者本人田野研究所得发现的基础上,本文提出了自己的看法,认为泼水节并非傣历新年,而是佛教新年和傣族远古泼水习俗两个来源的结合体。继而,作者指出,被视为傣历新年的泼水节实际上是一种被制造出来的传统。     

广西农垦产业园区建设融资问题探讨

产业园区要实现其运营目标和服务功能,良好的基础设施是首要具备的条件。基础设施建设资金的不足和融资渠道的匮乏,影响并制约了广西农垦产业园区的开发与建设。为了促进农垦经济又好又快地发展,提高投资效率,应当针对经营性、准经营性及非经营性基础设施项目的各自特点选择适宜的融资模式,并不断探索、发展新型融资模式,拓宽融资渠道,促进农垦产业园区的发展。     

Buying while expecting to sell: The economic psychology of online resale

Consumer online resale is becoming increasingly common for transactions of secondhand goods. However, when accompanied by a preconceived intention to resell a product after using it, the initial consumer purchasing decision for self-use is complicated by the estimated resale value of that good. We applied the principles of mental accounting to develop and evaluate a new concept that may influence consumer resale and purchase intention: external resale reference price (ERRP). The study examines how online consumer sellers' economic psychology of buying affected their expectation of future online resale outcome. The results indicate that (1) consumers' awareness of future online resale potential can influence their purchasing decisions; (2) ERRP, which is mediated by the estimated resale return, can increase purchase intention; and (3) the effects of ERRP on purchase intention are moderated by online resale likelihood, but are minimal when consumers are aware that resale possibility is extremely low.     

汽车产品再制造中的知识产权问题分析

汽车产品再制造是汽车工业发展循环经济的重要途径,是汽车工业可持续发展的必然选择。随着再制造产业的发展,原产品制造商与再制造商的利益冲突和知识产权冲突问题逐渐显现。明确再制造中的知识产权保护原则,平衡各方的利益,才能既鼓励创新,保护知识产权人的利益,又可以高效发展汽车再制造产业。     

低碳经济与人类可持续发展

低碳经济是一种正在全球兴起的以采用低碳能源和去碳技术减少温室气体排放、应对全球气候变暖为目标的新经济,是人类实现可持续发展的新途径。世界上所有国家和地区都要为此进行努力,但发达国家负有巨大的历史债务,应当承担更多、更大的责任。中国作为一个发展中国家,按照"共同但有区别的责任"原则,正在积极展开自主行动,为人类可持续发展作出更大的贡献。     

Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model

The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been proposed for bankruptcy prediction using panel data from firms. This model has been demonstrated by many examples to be more powerful than the traditional models. In this paper, we propose an extension of this approach allowing for a more flexible choice of hazard function. The new method does not require the assumption of a parametric model for the hazard function. In addition, it also provides a tool for checking the adequacy of the parametric model, if necessary. We use real panel datasets to illustrate the proposed method. The empirical results confirm that the new model compares favorably with the well-known discrete-time parametric hazard model.     

安徽农地承包经营权规模化流转调查与思考

近年来,安徽省农地承包经营权流转面积稳步增加,规模逐渐加大,对促进农业增产和农业现代化效果显著,对农民增收和工业化、城市化发展也有积极影响。农地规模化流转及经营完善了农业家庭承包的经营结构,在发展现代农业中可以与农户经营互荣共存。促进农地规模化流转要注意保护农民土地承包权益,与农村剩余劳动力转移相结合。