基于城乡视角的居民能源消费影响因素研究

2002—2016年,伴随着291亿农村人口的城镇化,中国居民能源消费量增长了190%。在这一背景下,准确识别城乡居民能源消费模式差异及影响因素显得至关重要。本文基于城乡视角,重新界定居民能源消费,涵盖了建筑用能和交通用能两部分;同时在模型中创新性地引入了财富效应和强度效应,结合结构效应、城镇化效应和人口效应进行定量研究。利用对数平均迪氏分解法,基于我国2002—2012年城镇、农村居民数据,本文考察了不同驱动因素对城镇和农村能源消费的异质性影响。结果表明,建筑能耗强度和住房面积的增长是驱动居民能源消费增长的主要因素,机动车数量的增加也对城镇居民能源消费有明显的正向作用。由于较高的增长率,农村建筑能耗强度和人均住房面积增加对能耗增量的贡献已经逐渐超过城市。此外,分解结果表明,城镇化对居民能源消费的正向效应在逐年递减。这为“城镇化导致居民能源消费增加”提供了间接反证。     

Dividend clienteles: a global investigation

We compare the cross-sectional variation in the dividend payout policies of companies across 32 countries. Beyond the impact of firm-specific accounting and financial variables, this study investigates how the country level variations: shareholder demand due to demographic variations and consumption needs, agency problems manifested in the extent of minority shareholder protection and business disclosures, and market quality in terms of transparency and liquidity; affect the dividend payout policies. We find that firms have generous dividend payout policies when diverse shareholder demands are strong, extents of business disclosures and legal protections are weak, and the market qualities are poor. The empirical evidence supports the presence of strong dividend clienteles in a global setting.     

Cost of equity capital,control divergence,and institutions: the international evidence

This study investigates the governance role of a country’s legal and extra-legal institutions in explaining the variations in firms’ cost of equity capital induced by concentrated ownership structures from 21 countries. Using four implied cost of equity proxies, the results show that the large ownership-control divergence of the ultimate owner has a positive and significant impact on the firm’s cost of equity capital. The finding lends support to the entrenchment effect in that the concentrated ownership structure increases the firm’s external financing cost. Further analyses demonstrate that the higher equity cost induced by the ultimate ownership structure is significantly reduced by a country’s stronger legal and extra-legal institutions, highlighting the governance role played by a country’s institutions in reducing the firm’s external financing cost.     

R&D AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN A CASH‐IN‐ADVANCE ECONOMY

R&D investment has well‐known liquidity problems, with potentially important consequences. In this study, we analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic growth and social welfare in a Schumpeterian growth model with cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraints on R&D investment, consumption, and manufacturing. Our main results can be summarized as follows. Under the CIA constraints on R&D and consumption (the CIA constraint on manufacturing), an increase in the nominal interest rate decreases (increases) R&D and economic growth. We also analyze the optimality of Friedman rule and find that Friedman rule can be suboptimal due to a unique feature of the Schumpeterian model.     

Asset Pricing Specification Errors and Performance Evaluation

Many evaluation techniques typically measure performance asdeviations of average returns on actively managed funds fromthose predicted by some asset pricing model. Empirical evidence,however, has so far suggested that all asset pricing modelslack empirical support, implying that the models contain mis-specificationerrors to various degrees. Evaluating mutual fund performancerelative to any of these models thus becomes problematic. Inthis paper, we propose an approach to performance measurementthat emphasizes minimizing explicitly the pricing error associatedwith an asset pricing function which is employed to computeperformance measures. This approach is henceforth called theminimum specification-error (MSE) method. We also discuss thestatistical properties for implementing MSE performance measure.To demonstrate the significance of the pricing error confoundedin evaluation measurement, we contrast our methodology withthe Grinblatt and Titman (1989) period weighting approach andwith the empirical implementation of Chen and Knez (1996). Wefind that the greater the pricing error of passive assets, thelarger the performance measures. Given the average pricing errorgenerated from a collection of 163 diverse passive portfoliosused in this analysis the performance values assigned to a largenumber of the funds become statistically and economically insignificant.     

Contracting with private knowledge of signal quality

We characterize the optimal procurement contract in a setting where a supplier has privileged knowledge of the quality of a public signal about his production costs. The optimal contract exhibits important differences with standard contracts in adverse selection settings. For instance, the contract induces output both above and below first‐best levels. Furthermore, the induced output may not vary with the realized public signal unless the signal quality is sufficiently pronounced. In addition, output may increase as expected costs increase.     

高新技术园区经济周期波动特征及成因分析

研究目标：探析高新技术园区经济周期波动特征并挖掘形成原因。研究方法：利用经验模态分解测算高新技术园区经济周期,并结合多元线性回归模型对周期特征和影响因子进行分析。研究发现：高新技术园区经济处于10年左右中周期长度,整体经济与周期影响因素的特征相似但不完全同步,一定程度存在协同性。总体而言,高新技术园区发展存在矛盾和经济周期有潜在波动的可能均源于协同水平的待提升。研究创新：运用经验模态分解测算中微观经济周期及协同性,并对经济周期波动及影响因素的联动性问题展开研究。研究价值：为提升经济协同性和保障经济运行稳定性提供有益的理论依据和政策启示。     

工艺创新的两种驱动模型及其实证分析

从工艺创新的涵义和企业的实际运作出发,提出了工艺创新的两种驱动模型,讨论了模型的适用范围和产出效益.同时,以东风汽车公司合资前后有关工艺创新问题为实例,对工艺创新的两种驱动模型进行了实证分析.     

Transfer mechanisms and knowledge transfer: The cooperative competency perspective

This study examines the role of transfer mechanisms, including replication and adaptation, in knowledge transfer from the cooperative competency perspective. This study tests the hypotheses in a sample of 120 knowledge transfer cases. The results indicate that transfer mechanisms relate positively to cooperative competency with partnering firms, which then improves knowledge transfer performance. The results provide evidence that cooperative competency plays a mediating role between transfer mechanisms and knowledge transfer performance. The findings of this study contribute to the theoretical development of a conceptual model for explaining the interrelationships among transfer mechanisms, cooperative competency, and knowledge transfer performance. The empirical evidence of the Sobel test in line with Baron and Kenny's procedure and bootstrap analysis supports the process-oriented view and indicates that cooperative competency mediates the effects of transfer mechanisms on knowledge transfer performance. Finally, this study discusses the managerial implications and highlights future research directions.     

Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action

We study identification and estimation of finite-horizon dynamic discrete choice models with a terminal action. We first demonstrate a new set of conditions for the identification of agents’ time preferences. Then we prove conditions under which the per-period utilities are identified for all actions in the agent’s choice-set, without having to normalize the utility for one of the actions. Finally, we develop a computationally tractable semiparametric estimator. The estimator uses a two-step approach that does not use either backward induction or forward simulation. Our methodology can be implemented using standard statistical packages without the need to write specialized computational routines, as it involves linear (or nonlinear) projections only. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate the superior performance of our estimator compared with existing two-step estimation methods. Monte Carlo studies further demonstrate that the ability to identify the per-period utilities for all actions is crucial for counterfactual predictions. As an empirical illustration, we apply the estimator to the optimal default behavior of subprime mortgage borrowers, and the results show that the ability to identify the discount factor, rather than assuming an arbitrary number as typically done in the literature, is also crucial for obtaining correct counterfactual predictions. These findings highlight the empirical relevance of key identification results of the paper.