Risk analysis for operation of aluminum heat exchangers contaminated by mercury

Brazed aluminum plate-fin heat exchangers are extensively used in gas separation processes including LNG, LPG, NGL, nitrogen rejection and olefins manufacture. In situations where mercury is a trace component of feed gas or liquid feeds to crackers, condensation of liquid or precipitation of solid mercury can occur in heat exchanger passes, even with functional mercury removal systems in place. Mercury in liquid phase causes, under certain well-defined conditions, liquid metal embrittlement of susceptible metallurgy or amalgam corrosion of core fins, both of which can lead to sudden loss of pressure containment. Mercury-contaminated aluminum heat exchangers require close scrutiny and quantitative risk assessment to allow safe operation, remediation or to justify replacement. The risk analysis procedure involves computational prediction of mercury deposition, inspection of critical areas, detailed assessment of metallurgy and fabrication, strain analysis of temperature changes during trips and shutdowns and oxide fatigue analysis. Assigning probability of equipment failure requires a complete understanding of the mechanisms of liquid metal embrittlement and amalgam corrosion that operate on aluminum plate-fin heat exchangers. Statistical correlations to known failures are essential to assignment of probability-based risk factors. Probabilities of leak and rupture failure modes can be estimated using amounts and locations of mercury deposits determined from focused inspection or calculated thermodynamically. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009     

Niche tourism attributes scale: a case of storm chasing

In spite of the rapid and large growth of niche tourism, and the proliferation of tour operators catering to such markets, limited information is available on the measurement of tour operator attributes that are critical to maximise the experience and needs of their tourists. Thus, a study was conducted to comprehensively evaluate different operational attributes of small storm-chasing tour operators. Findings reveal high internal reliability and utility for this niche market; additional testing is suggested to evaluate such scale among other small niche tourism operators.     

RELATIVE CONCENTRATION CURVE: FUNCTIONAL FORM AND MEASURES OF NON-PROPORTIONALITY

The note presents an explicit functional form in one equation of a relative concentration curve relating the first-moment distributions of any pair of variables as well as two summary measures of non-proportionality that can be visualized by distance and area properties of a relative concentration curve.     

IMMIGRATION AND NATIVE WELFARE*

This article unifies two approaches for identifying the welfare and wage effects of immigration, one emphasizing the immigration surplus, the other stressing a potential welfare loss due to a terms‐of‐trade effect. We decompose the native welfare effect into a standard complementarity effect, augmented by a Stolper–Samuelson effect, and a terms‐of‐trade effect. We illustrate the welfare and wage effects of endogenous goods prices in a stylized‐specific factors model. Finally, we calibrate this model to a generic OECD economy and provide simulation results. The key insight is that endogenous goods prices play a quantitatively important role, sometimes even overturning received results.     

Factor-price equalization under joint and nonjoint production

We investigate how joint production affects the likelihood of factor price equalization (FPE) through trade. Following up on recent contributions by Samuelson (1992) and Jones (1992), we propose to take the relative size of the FPE region of endowment distributions to measure this likelihood, and we show that it mayincrease even if joint production leads to adecrease of the number of basic production processes, and it maydecrease even if the number of basic production processes operated in equilibrium isthe same as under nonjoint production. A 2×2×2 example is analyzed in more detail. Moreover, we show that the argument of Jones (1992) can be reinterpreted in a more applied direction by considering the effects of switching from a regime where only intermediate products are traded to a regime where all products are traded. The paper shows that the likelihood of FPE may decrease by integrating product markets in this way. Still more surprising is the fact that integration may even destroy FPE.     

An economic evaluation of area yield insurance for small-scale cane growers

In the past, crop insurance schemes have based indemnity payments on individual producers' yields. Insurance of individual yields does not cope efficiently with systemic risk and therefore fails in areas where crop yields are correlated across space. Area yield insurance provides an alternative and eliminates the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection associated with individual yield insurance. Area yield insurance therefore effectively copes with systemic risk. In this study, principles of area yield insurance were applied to yield data on small-scale cane growers in KwaZulu-Natal and used to calculate pure premium rates. The viability of a government-subsidised area yield insurance scheme for small-scale cane farmers was assessed in terms of affordability to the government, the farmers and private insurance companies. The empirical results obtained from this study indicate that such a scheme may pose great expense to the government and, as a result, may not be viable in South Africa. This topic needs further study, while other risk management strategies should also be considered.     

Die Rolle der Versicherungsmathematik innerhalb der gesamten Wissenschaft und Praxis der Versicherung

Abstract

Der überraschenden ehrenvollen Einladung in den drei skandinavischen Hauptstadten im Verein der Aktuare einen Vortrag zu halten, bin ich zwar gern aber nicht ohne Bedenken gefolgt; weiss ich doch nicht, ob ich in einem solchen Kreise von Sachverstandigen der Wissenschaft und Praxis der Versicherung etwas bieten kann. Aber die so überaus liebenswürdige Schreiben Ihrer Herrn Vorsitzenden geben mil' den Mut hier zu sprechen. Ich will kein speziell versicherungsmathematisches Thema behandeln: rch will vielmehr den Rahmen weiterspannen und iiber die {iRolle der Versicherungsmathematik innerhalb del gesamten Wissenschaft und Praxis der Versicherung sprechen.     

The “Lisbon Goal” of the EU: Rhetoric or Substance?

This paper explores the relationship between the rhetoric of the Lisbon Goal of the EU and key insights from trade theory and growth theory. It argues that the policy initiative as such is valid, but the paradigm of international competitiveness is potentially misleading. The focus should, instead, be on productivity. Industrial policies, while potentially valid against the backdrop of recent developments in growth theory, are subject to pitfalls in practice. Policies focusing on institutions are more promising. The paper offers a framework for discussing the role of different types of institutions with respect to the Lisbon Goal. This paper goes back to a joint presentation with Mario Nava at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna—40th Anniversary Symposium “A Changing Europe in a Changing World” June 24–25, 2004.