Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin

Small Business Economics - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices—from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method...     

Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns

This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling one‐minute‐ahead return forecasts using the entire cross‐section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out‐of‐sample fit and forecast‐implied Sharpe ratios. This out‐of‐sample success comes from identifying predictors that are unexpected, short‐lived, and sparse. Although the LASSO uses a statistical rule rather than economic intuition to identify predictors, the predictors it identifies are nevertheless associated with economically meaningful events: the LASSO tends to identify as predictors stocks with news about fundamentals.     

Retaining and engaging older workers: A solution to worker shortages in the U.S.

Over the next 20 years, many organizations will experience significant shortages of skilled workers. At the same time, because of longer lifespans and a gradual rise in what society has considered the traditional retirement age of 65, older workers will represent a growing proportion of the American workforce. For a variety of reasons, many of these older workers desire to continue working and, if retained and engaged, they constitute a significant labor source for mitigating the emerging shortages of skilled workers. However, many organizations are not prepared to take advantage of this demographic shift; some even generate barriers that impede the retention and engagement of older workers. In this article, we identify a variety of ways in which organizations can retain and engage older workers to meet their staffing needs and enhance organizational performance. We also discuss the relationship of these proposals to prominent theories of motivation in management.     

Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets

This paper presents the case for and the evidence in favour of passive investment strategies and examines the major criticisms of the technique. I conclude that the evidence strongly supports passive investment management in all markets—small–capitalisation stocks as well as large–capitalisation equities, US markets as well as international markets, and bonds as well as stocks. Recent attacks on the efficient market hypothesis do not weaken the case for indexing.     

Ag econ angst crisis revisited

The present paper was inspired by and is a response to the Rola-Rubzen, Hardaker and Dillon paper 'Agricultural economists and world poverty: progress and prospects' (Rola-Rubzen et al. 2001). It is agreed that the position of agricultural economists in foreign aid and poverty programs has declined over recent decades. Such a feeling of guilt and remorse expressed by the above authors does indeed create considerable 'angst'. A major reason for this state of affairs lies in 'the flavour of the month' approach of the development agencies. These include women in development, gender-based farming systems research, household nutrition and food security, people participation, and targeting the poorest of the poor. These fads have driven disciplinary considerations to the wall and the more widely-defined objectives have reduced the drive for economic efficiency. We argue there is still a place for better designed and delivered assistance programs within the wider framework of assistance that has become fashionable. Greater application of institutional principles in both the political processes associated with assistance and the implementation agencies would improve the outcomes of many projects. Particular attention would need to be given to the interface between the development agencies and recipient governments. The present paper picks up on the market failure aspects of agriculture's rather poor contribution to development, and develops a wider perspective in terms of the new institutional economics and a continuing role for the agricultural economist.     

EDITORIAL: TAX REFORM AND SIMPLIFICATION

Major tax reform to simplify the UK tax system is possible. Merging income taxes, social security taxes and corporation tax into only a single flat-rate of tax on all incomes would be a radical start. Avoiding taxes on income and expenditure which are 'too high' requires major reductions in government spending, mainly on the welfare state. Given the political will, over a period of years we really can hugely improve the UK tax system.