Some Preliminary Findings on Hong Kong Business Cycles

This paper presents some preliminary quantitative findings on the characteristics of business cycles in Hong Kong. The recently developed "approximate bandpass filter" is used to extract the fluctuations at business cycle frequencies (8 to 32 quarters) of macroeconomic time series. Based on the filtered time series, the paper identifies the cyclical turning points, describes the pattern of output fluctuations, and examines the co‐movement of various macroeconomic variables.     

Out of the Mouths of Babes: Business Ethics and Youths in Asia

A model of corporate ethics and social responsibility (CESR) was developed and empirically tested among Chinese business undergraduates in Hong Kong and Singapore. As predicted, it was found that CESR beliefs were negatively related to Machiavellianism and two Confucian concepts, guanxi (interpersonal connections) and mianzi (face). CESR beliefs were also lower among Hong Kong than Singaporean youths. The negative effects of guanxi, mianzi, and Machiavellianism were more pronounced for the Hong Kong than Singapore sample. Implications of these findings are discussed and directions for future research suggested.     

在近岸采油装置上实施集成风险检查系统

介绍中东国家把集成风险检查和检查系统用于近岸油田装置。根据详细的风险检查分析和过去的检查记录,对所选择的设备采用无损检测技术实施检查。资产数据、检查记录和有关文件都集中保存在计算机系统中。这样有能力保管和查看不同种类的文件和图样。这个系统能生成和监管维修和检查工作单,并能与企业其他系统进行交流。有一个知识数据库用于资产整合活动,与MS Excel的输入/输出功能进行数据交换也更加方便。     

A research and development decision model for pharmaceutical industry: case of China

This paper evaluates prospective technology areas, development strategies, and various innovation resources in China's pharmaceutical sector through the use of a hierarchical decision model. The results indicate that although domestic SMEs are the major preferred innovation alternative, it is followed closely by foreign MNCs. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the effectiveness of policy decisions are influenced by certain high technology areas. Recombinant therapeutic proteins, recombinant vaccines, and monoclonal antibody technologies are identified as the major areas that will influence the priority of innovation resources. The research crafts a research framework to formulate innovation strategies in dealing with the uncertainties of technology development and policy decisions in the biopharmaceutical industry.     

Risk perceptions across the current political spectrum in Finland: a study of party members

Political party member perceptions of risk continue to attract a great deal of attention in current public discourse and media coverage, yet little research exists in terms of a comparative analysis of Finnish political parties’ views on the issue. Party members are in many ways a highly significant social group, one that exercises a great deal of decision-making power in modern civil societies. This article provides a novel and up-to-date look into the key areas of perceived risk held by the members of Finland’s political parties, in addition to a comparison of inter-party differences and similarities. The analysis is based on a unique survey data-set of the members of Finland’s six major political parties (N = 12,427). Included are the Finns Party, Centre Party, Left Alliance, Social Democratic Party, Green League and National Coalition Party. Together, these represent the political spectrum in Finland. Risk factors included primary categories dealing with various national, institutional, cultural and economic issues. Also included in the analysis was a look into whether length of party membership affects risk concern for the included issues. Findings showed that national and external risks were more of a concern for the Finns Party, while the Left and the Social Democrats considered economic issues a greater risk than did others. Furthermore, economic risk was most concerning to the left while external risks were generally viewed in line with the current centre-right administration. Some notable differences between old and new party members were also found. Findings emphasize the importance of understanding how political party members differ in their views of various societal risks while providing new points of comparison between those parties toward improved clarity of the national political landscape.     

The Resources Allocation Effects of Indonesia's Financial Repression in the 1974–1983 Period

We found that the selective credit policy of the 1974-83 period benefitted the Indonesian economy in a way unanticipated by the protagonists in the financial repression debate. The selective credit policy by favoring the manufacturing and trade sectors reduced their decimation by the overvalued exchange rate created by expansionary macroeconomic policies. The existence of a sizeable tradeable sector when the negative balance of payments shocks hit after 1981 enabled Indonesia to earn enough foreign exchange to service its external debts and thus avoid the type of prolonged economic crisis experienced by Latin America. (It must be stressed that the selective credit policy constituted only one of the policy actions that preserved the economic viability of the tradeable sector.) Since the selective credit policy was not undertaken with the expectation of negative balance of payments shocks in 1980s, its beneficial effects on economic development were entirely fortuitous.     

A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange

This paper develops a new bivariate jump model to study jump dynamics in foreign exchange returns. The model extends a multivariate GARCH parameterization to include a bivariate correlated jump process. The conditional covariance matrix has the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (1989) structure, while the bivariate jumps are governed by a Correlated Bivariate Poisson (CBP) function. Using daily data we find evidence of both independent currency specific jumps, as well as jumps common to both exchange rates of the Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen against the U.S. dollar. The paper concludes by investigating a time-varying structure for the arrival of jumps that relaxes the assumption of constant and bounded jump correlation imposed by the CBP function.I am indebted to two anonymous referees and the editor, Baldev Raj for helpful suggestions. I am also grateful for helpful comments from Adolf Buse, Ramazan Gencay, Rehim Kilic, John Maheu, Alex Maynard, Denis Pelletier, Denise Young, and seminar participants at the Tenth Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (SNDE), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2002; the Midwest Econometrics Group (MEG) Meetings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 2001; Canadian Economics Association (CEA) Meetings, McGill University 2001.     

Pricing and Hedging of Discrete Dynamic Guaranteed Funds

We derive a risk‐neutral pricing model for discrete dynamic guaranteed funds with geometric Gaussian underlying security price process. We propose a dynamic hedging strategy by adding a gamma factor to the conventional delta. Simulation results demonstrate that, when hedging discretely, the risk‐neutral gamma‐adjusted‐delta strategy outperforms the dynamic delta hedging strategy by reducing the expected hedging error, lowering the hedging error variability, and improving the self‐financing possibility. The discrete dynamic delta‐only hedging not only causes potential overcharge to clients but also could be costly to the issuers. We show that a naive application of continuous‐time hedging formula to a discrete‐time hedging setting tends to worsen these possibilities.     

Factors influencing strategic alliance outcomes in a manufacturing supply chain: Role of alliance motives,interdependence, asset specificity and relational capital

Integration of various theories is essential to completely understand and explain strategic alliances in a supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework by integrating the features of transaction cost theory, resource-based theory, contingency theory, social exchange theory, and Kelley's personal relationship theory and test the framework through empirical research. The present study addresses the impact of strategic alliance motives, environment, asset specificity, perception of opportunistic behavior, interdependence between supply chain partners, and relational capital on strategic alliance outcomes. Besides, the study has also tested the role of relational capital as a central mediating construct. A sample of 2156 companies representing different industries in manufacturing in Malaysia was selected for the distribution of questionnaire. We tested the structural model using structural equation modeling (SEM). Based on the results, we conclude the following significant relationships: (1) strategic alliance motives and perception of opportunistic behavior on interdependence and relational capital, (2) interdependence on relational capital, (3) environment on strategic alliance motives, (4) relational capital on strategic alliance outcomes, and (4) the mediating role of relational capital. The current study adds significantly to the body of knowledge on strategic alliances and can help managers identify factors that influence the success of strategic alliances and provide a proper direction to develop robust and effective collaborative relationships between supply chain partners.