Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area

This paper provides an update on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) estimates for 12 euro area (EA) countries. First, based on quarterly data over the 1990–2012 period, the study does not find a significant heterogeneity in the degree of pass-through across the monetary union members, in contrast to previous empirical studies. As the authors use a longer time span for the post-EA era than existing studies, this is not surprising, since the process of monetary union has entailed some convergence towards more stable macroeconomic conditions across EA member states. Second, when assessing the stability of pass-through elasticities, the authors find very weak evidence of a decline around the inception of the euro in 1999. However, their results reveal that a downtrend in ERPT estimates became apparent starting from the beginning of the 1990s. This observed decline was synchronous to the shift towards reduced inflation regimes in their sample of countries. Finally, the authors notice that the distinction between “peripheral” and “core” EA economies in terms of pass-through has significantly decreased over the last two decades.     

An Evaluation of Contingent Claims Using the CKLS Interest Rate Model: An Analysis of Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom

In this paper we apply a new efficient numerical method for valuing default free bonds and contingent claims within the CKLS interest rate model. Using historical parameter estimates of the CKLS model for Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom we compare implied bond and contingent claim prices. Our results indicate that default free bond prices and contingent claim prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rate model used.     

An Internalisation‐based World Environmental Organisation

We evaluate the possibilities for a new World Environmental Organisation (WEO), with our discussion motivated both by recent calls for such an organisation in light of WTO trade and environment conflicts and the relative absence of internalisation of global externalities. We propose an organisation building upon the idea of facilitating Coasian deal on the global environment. We motivate the establishment of such an organisation by itemising the ways in which global environmental deals are presently restrained by various impediments, including free riding, property right ambiguities, and mechanisms for authentification and verification. We indicate how such a WEO might help in each of these areas, stressing the differences from the WTO which is a much narrower bargaining framework.     

Establishing the validity of cycle path capacity assumptions in the Highway Capacity Manual

Cycle mode share increase is widely desired, but highway design practitioners lack the numerical tools to deliver infrastructure, instead relying on design standards and intuition, with little literature basis. As a case in point, the US Highway Capacity Manual (which is well used internationally) has developed levels of service for cycle infrastructure that are, at their core, based on an assumption of noninteraction between multiple cyclists. This paper uses a modified implementation of the Social Force Model to test the validity of this assumption. Necessary changes such as the consideration of acceleration characteristics and minimum maintainable speed are included. The resulting model produces valid outcomes in keeping with established traffic flow properties, reflecting three-phase traffic flow theory and the ability for the stochastic elements in traffic flow to cause flow breakdown. The developed simulation indicates that there is a fundamental difference in outcome if cyclists are assumed to have a fixed speed versus one they can change given their surroundings. This difference in outcomes is found to exist within the range of literature design flow capacities for bicycle infrastructure and also yields emergent outcomes that align closely with those known behaviors of highway vehicles, which intuitively transfer to cyclists. These findings reinforce the standing need for large-scale empirical studies to determine the basic numerical and behavioral parameters for cyclists, upon which all design ultimately rests.     

Estimating Transition Probabilities from a Time Series of Independent Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of a binary dependent variable in a time series of independent cross sections. The model, previously considered by M offitt (1993), offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fisher's method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch women using data from the Socio-economic Panel (SEP) study conducted in the Netherlands between 1986 and 1995. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the employment status sequences predicted by the model with the observed sequences in the panel. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are also discussed.     

我国银行特许权价值的决定因素分析

本文从市场相关和银行相关角度,运用面板数据模型,对我国14家上市银行特许权价值的决定因素进行了实证检验.结果发现,决定我国上市银行特许权价值的主要因素包括以银行为导向的金融结构,银行业垄断性和宏观经济因素;但并没有发现银行控股股东性质对银行特许权价值的显著影响.     

The Land Crisis in Zimbabwe Viewed from South of the Limpopo

Farm invasions in Zimbabwe have highlighted the pressing need for land reform throughout the southern African region. In South Africa, where the racial disparities in land holding are most severe, the events in Zimbabwe have raised the temperature of the land debate and led to calls for land invasions by some rural groups. The ANC-led government, facing criticism from both right and left for the slow pace of reform, has veered between strident defence of private property rights and threats to expropriate white farms. White farming interests have reacted differentially, with some progressive voices joining the calls for an accelerated reform programme. Current land reform policy in South Africa seems set to advance the interests of emerging black commercial farmers and tribal chiefs at the expense of the rural poor and landless.     

The Friday Effect in European Securitized Real Estate Index Returns

This study extends research on the day-of-the-week effect towards European real estate indices. We examine this anomaly for several European securitized real estate index returns between 1990 and 2003. Although the countries under analysis have unique country-specific patterns, we find that eight out of eleven European countries exhibit abnormally high Friday returns. Moreover, two different Europe indices also exhibit the Friday anomaly. The anomaly is robust with respect to extreme observations, alternative specifications and several well-known calendar effects.     

Avoiding integrity land mines

How does a large multinational keep thousands of employees, operating in hundreds of countries, honest in a high-pressure business environment? As the chief legal officer at General Electric for nearly 20 years, Ben Heineman was part of the senior management group that sought to do just that--to make sure its executives and employees are moved to do the right thing as strongly as they are motivated to make their numbers. Heineman describes a set of systems that combine the communication of clear expectations with oversight, deterrence, and incentives. Nowhere are the expectations higher--and the sanctions more powerful--than for top executives. Heineman recounts example after example of senior leaders terminated for ethical lapses even when the business consequences of doing so were painful--and even when they had no direct knowledge of the violations occurring on their watch. To make expectations clear throughout the company, GE has systematically sought to set uniform standards that stay well ahead of current legal developments and stakeholders' changing attitudes about corporate accountability. Responsibility for implementing those standards, which are embedded in GE's operating practices, rests with the business leaders in the field. Oversight is both methodical and multifaceted. A host of auditing and assessment systems enables GE to compare the performance of its various business units against one another and against industry benchmarks. Perhaps the most powerful is the company's ombudsman system, which doesn't just allow but requires employees to lodge concerns. Failures to report into the system or up the line, or retaliation in any form, are firing offenses. The current intense focus on board-level governance has missed the point, Heineman argues. It is time to shift the debate from board oversight of the CEO to how top company leaders can most effectively infuse integrity at all levels of the corporation.