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11.
Sancho Salcedo‐Sanz Mario DePrado‐Cumplido María Jesús Segovia‐Vargas Fernando Prez‐Cruz Carlos Bousoo‐Calzn 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2004,12(4):261-281
We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces. 相似文献
13.
陕西民间资金流失问题研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
摘要:游离于国家计划之外的民间资金由于不受国家监管,流动的隐蔽性极强。在趋利动机的支配下,必然出现资金流向高利润率地区,从而出现经济不发达地区民间资金的大量流出。虽然西部大开发战略已实施四年有余,陕西民间资金却出现了向外流失的现象,找出其流出的渠道和原因,引导民间资金回流、支持陕西经济发展是目前急需解决的问题。 相似文献
14.
财政分权与义务教育财政管理体制问题探析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
我国是成功实施财政分权化的国家之一。作为公共财政框架部分之一的义务教育也实行了分权化管理,义务教育办学的责任主要地落在了县、乡两级地方政府身上。而我国庞大的义务教育事业由县、乡甚至村脆弱的财力来承担,可谓“杯水车薪”:一些农村地区和贫困山区学龄儿童无学可上,无书可读等现象屡见不鲜。可见过度分权化的义务教育财政管理体制是制约当今中国义务教育发展的症结所在。 相似文献
15.
16.
We introduce bids in a rent-seeking contest. Players compete for a prize. Apart from exerting lobbying efforts, they also submit a bid which is payable only if they win the prize. We show that our model has a unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies, in which each active player submits the same bid, while the sum of all efforts equals that bid. In equilibrium there is underdissipation of rent. 相似文献
17.
The literature on mergers has extensively analyzed the decision to merge by private firms, but it has not considered the decision to merge by private and public firms. We assume that when a private firm and a public firm merge (or when one of them acquires the other), they set up a multiproduct firm in which the government owns an exogenous percentage stake. In this framework, we show that the decision to merge by firms depends on the degree to which goods are substitutes and on the percentage of the shares owned by the government in the multiproduct firm. 相似文献
18.
María Xosé Vázquez Rodríguez Carmelo J. León 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2004,28(2):233-249
Altruism is a type of non-use value which can have different definitions depending on the type of goods entering the utility function of the altruists and their expectations about the contributions of others. The purpose of this paper is to measure the trade-offs between different types of altruist values originating from social and environmental policies. Environmental policies are concerned with reducing health effects from a power plant while social policies involve both the attainment of public facilities for education and leisure and an increase in the income of the affected population. The empirical application utilizes a choice experiment technique which allows for valuation of multiple goods. Health effects are decomposed into the values of the risk of becoming ill, the duration of the episodes and the limitations imposed by illness. Altruist values are elicited from a population that is not affected by pollution. Results show that altruism is significant for policies directed to reducing health effects and improving the income level of the affected population, whereas there is egoism for a policy aimed at improving public facilities in the polluted suburb. The value of altruism is significantly influenced by the expectations of net benefits to be received by the affected population. 相似文献
19.
In this paper the stability of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) among N identical countries that emit a pollutant are studied using a two-stage game. In the first stage each country decides noncooperatively whether or not to join an IEA, and in the second stage signatories jointly against nonsignatories determine their emissions in a dynamic setting defined in continuous time. A numerical simulation shows that a bilateral coalition is the unique self-enforcing IEA independently of the gains coming from cooperation and the kind of strategies played by the agents (open-loop or feedback strategies). We have also studied the effects of a minimum participation clause finding that for this case a self-enforcing IEA just consists of the number of countries established in the clause.JEL Classification:
C73, D62, Q28
Corresponding author : Santiago J. RubioThis paper is based on chapter four of Begoña Casinos Ph. Dissertation. Financial support from the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología under grant BEC2000-1432 and Fundación BBVAis gratefully acknowledged. We also appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous referees, whose suggestions improved the paper. Regarding any remaining inadequacies, the usual caveat applies. 相似文献
20.
José M. Luengo Sagrario Arias Mario Arcos Elías R. Olivera 《Spanish Economic Review》2005,7(4):307-307