Are unit export values correct measures of the exports’ quality?

It has become common to measure the quality of exports using their unit export value (UEV). Applications of this method include studies of intra-industry trade (IIT) and analyses of industrial ‘competitiveness.’ This literature seems to assume that export quality and export price (the most natural interpretation of UEV) are not merely correlated but that they follow each other one-for-one. We put this assumption under scrutiny from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In terms of theory, we formalize this assumption as a hypothesis of the proportionality of equilibrium prices and equilibrium qualities. We discuss several cases for which this hypothesis is theoretically doubtful (nonlinear utility and cost functions; strong and asymmetric horizontal product differentiation). We also suggest a method of verifying the hypothesis for cases in which it cannot be easily rejected theoretically. This method is then applied to German imports in the period of 1994–2009. We find that the implications of the proportionality hypothesis are largely contradicted by the data.     

Flugzeugbau bleibt wichtiges Standbein für den Industriestandort Deutschland

The aviation industry in Germany is one of the growing industry sectors and generates more than half of its revenues abroad. As a high-tech and knowledge-intensive sector, the aviation industry relies on a highly skilled work force as well as technical innovations. Effective research and development are therefore essential for the industry’s international competitiveness. Especially global trends open up positive development prospects for Germany’s aviation industry. To improve the economic conditions of the industry sector, companies as well as political and scientific actors have joined forces in regional sector networks.     

The limitations of decentralized world redistribution: An optimal taxation approach

A centralized scheme of world redistribution that maximizes a border-neutral social welfare function, subject to the disincentive effects it would create, generates a drastic reduction in world consumption inequality, dropping the Gini coefficient from 0.69 to 0.25. In contrast, an optimal decentralized (i.e., with no cross-country transfers) redistribution has a miniscule effect on world income inequality. Thus, the traditional public finance concern about the excess burden of redistribution cannot explain why there is so little world redistribution.Actual foreign aid is vastly lower than the transfers under the simulated world income tax, suggesting that voluntary world transfers - subject to a free-rider problem - produces an outcome that is consistent with rich countries such as the United States either placing a much lower value on the welfare of foreigners, or else expecting that a very significant fraction of cross-border transfers is wasted. The product of the welfare weight and one minus the share of transfers that are wasted constitutes the implicit weight that the United States assigns to foreigners. We calculate that value to be as low as 1/2000 of the value put on the welfare of an American, suggesting that U.S. policy is consistent with social preferences that place essentially no value on the welfare of the citizens of the poorest countries, or that implicitly assumes that essentially all transfers are wasted.     

Forecasting annual and harvest pecan prices

Pecan price forecasting is important to growers attempting to reduce income variability. Random coefficient regression (RCR) and OLS approaches were applied to annual price forecasts. Variance analysis was conducted to forecast pecan price during harvest. Price variation was postulated to be caused by two sets of variables: structural economic variables and unknown factors. RCR results consistently outperformed OLS results in annual price forecasting. The variation of harvest prices was found to be generated by a different process each year, making accurate predictions difficult. Annual price forecasts, however, can provide additional information to pecan growers and shellers for marketing decision-making.     

Demographischer Wandel und Arbeitsmärkte in Norddeutschland

Die bevorstehenden demographischen Veränderungen sind von erheblicher Bedeutung für den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland und seine Regionen. Inwieweit ist Norddeutschland betroffen? Welche Arbeitsmarkteffekte sind hier zu erwarten? Wie kann dem Rückgang der Erwerbsbevölkerung entgegengewirkt werden?Dr. Annekatrin Niebuhr, 38, ist wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Regionalforschung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in der Regionaldirektion Nord der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (IAB Nord); Dr. Silvia Stiller, 38, ist wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Europäische Integration im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).*Wir bedanken uns bei Lisa Dust für ihre hervorragende Forschungsassistenz bei der Erstellung dieses Aufsatzes. Download der Langfassung der Studie „Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland - Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf“ als HWWA Report Nr. 250 (2005): http://www.hwwa.de (Publikationen). Die Studie ist im Auftrag der Vereins- und Westbank/HypoVereinsbank, Hamburg im Jahr 2004 entstanden.