Forward-Looking Tail Risk Exposures at U.S. Bank Holding Companies

This paper develops a simple method for quantifying banks’ exposures to large (negative) shocks in a forward-looking manner. The method is based on estimating banks’ share prices sensitivities to (market) put options and does not require the actual observation of tail risk events. We find that estimated (excess) tail risk exposures for U.S. Bank Holding Companies are negatively correlated with their share price beta, suggesting that banks which appear safer in normal periods are actually more crisis prone than their beta would suggest. We also study the determinants of banks’ tail risk exposures and find that their key drivers are uninsured deposits and non-traditional activities that leave assets on banks’ balance sheets.     

Smart Homes as a Means to Sustainable Energy Consumption: A Study of Consumer Perceptions

European and national policies are aimed at reducing greenhouse gases and increasing energy efficiency—also in the household sector. For this purpose, new solutions for private homes based on information and communication technologies (ICT) are being developed and tested. However, up to now, hardly anyone has seen, experienced or lived in an environment that offers the full range of ICT-based energy management solutions. In this study, consumer reactions to a fully furnished and equipped smart home are analysed using focus groups (four groups with a total of 29 participants). The analysis looks at consumer perceptions of and reactions to an energy management system which optimizes electricity consumption based on different ICT solutions. The topics that were demonstrated in practice and then discussed with the participants included variable tariffs, smart metering, smart appliances, and home automation. In general, there were positive group reactions to the smart home environment. Consumers saw many advantages for themselves; especially the chance to save money. However, giving up high levels of flexibility and adapting everyday routines to fit in with electricity tariffs were regarded as difficult. Smart appliances and smart meters were therefore considered to be necessary elements by most participants. Concerns regarding data privacy played a major role in one of the groups.     

Neue Anforderungen an optimierende Energiesystemmodelle für die Kraftwerkseinsatz- und Zubauplanung bei begrenzten Netzkapazitäten

Recent changes in energy economic frameworks conditions lead to new requirements for energy systems models. Particularly in Germany, structural and locational changes in the power plant sector can be observed. Above all, this is due to the liberalisation process entailing the legal unbundling of system operators and generation companies as well as to the ambitious aims for the extension of wind energy. Consequently, modelling energy systems as single node systems, in which network constraints are neglected, can lead to suboptimal results. Most energy systems models offer the possibility to limit interregional energy exchange capacities. However, these so-called transhipment models normally neglect the actual load flows. Yet, there are several possibilities to adequately consider the characteristics of power transmission. In this paper, the most popular approaches, which are used in particular technical applications, such as the AC- (Alternating Current), the DC- (Direct Current) and the PTDF- (Power Transfer Distribution Factors) approach are introduced and discussed with respect to their application in energy systems models. In addition, first experiences with their implementations are presented.     

Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario‐dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better‐off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex‐ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex‐post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.     

Do‐It‐Yourself Projects as Path toward Female Empowerment in a Gendered Market Place

The role of women as homeowners and heads of households are changing the dynamics in which women engage in do‐it‐yourself (DIY) behavior. Because there is limited extant theory associated with female involvement in DIY behavior, a qualitative study using in‐depth interviews was conducted. Through grounded theory analysis several themes emerged during the coding process, and the themes of empowerment were especially relevant to the informants in this study. Five dimensions of empowerment were identified: empowerment through project initiation, production mastery, adding economic value to goods and services, unleashing creative potential, and empowerment through ownership. The findings show women's involvement in DIY behavior and the consumption of DIY‐related goods is closely tied to the concept of female empowerment.     

Diversification, Vertical Integration, and the Regional Pattern of Dairy Farm Size

Dairy farm size differs considerably across the United States. We analyze patterns of dairy farm size to determine how differences in vertical integration and diversification relate to farm size. We find that diversification accounts for little size variation. For vertical integration, the partial correlation with dairy herd size is strongly negative. Dairy value-added size measures vary less across regions than herd size, indicating that an important part of herd size variation relates to vertical integration. Nonetheless, dairy farms in the Pacific and South regions remain much larger than farms in the traditional dairy regions, even when accounting for vertical integration.     

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Trends in the international licence trade

The term “international licence trade” signifies the worldwide buying and selling, across national frontiers, of technical and industrial licences. In contrast to the trade in goods, which involves the exchange of material goods, the transfer of licences concerns immaterial goods, i.e. legally protected industrial property rights (patents, registered or ornamental designs, copy rights) and unprotected technical knowledge and inventions (the so-called “know-how”).