Where is the value added of rebalancing? A systematic comparison of alternative rebalancing strategies

This study compares the performance of different rebalancing strategies under realistic market conditions by reporting statistical significance levels. Our analysis is based on historical data from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany and comprises three different classes of rebalancing (periodic, threshold, and range rebalancing). Despite cross-country differences, our history-based simulation results show that all rebalancing strategies outperform a buy-and-hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios, and Omega measures. The differences in risk-adjusted performance are not only statistically significant, but also economically relevant. However, the choice of a particular rebalancing strategy is of only minor economic importance.     

Western Europe’s economic security

Intereconomics - “Economic security” has become a fashionable but rather loose lable covering the new uncertainties in the world economy. Dr. Hager makes an attempt at a narrower...     

The assessment: financial instability

This paper analyses the causes, consequences, and cures forfinancial instability based on nine articles on this subjectin the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. It argues that thearticles suggest a high degree of consensus about the policiesrequired to minimize risks of financial instability and thepolicies required to tackle it if it emerges.     

The inflation game

We study a game where households buy consumption goods to preempt inflation. This game features a unique equilibrium with high (low) inflation, whenever money supply is high (low). For intermediate levels of money supply, there exist multiple stable equilibria where inflation is either high or low. Equilibria with moderate inflation, however, do not exist, and can thus not be targeted by central banks. That is, depending on agents' equilibrium play, money supply is always either too high or too low for moderate inflation. Finally, we find that inflation rates of durable goods, such as houses, cars, luxury watches, or furniture, are useful leading indicators for changes in overall inflation.     

Öffentliche Meinung als Online-Diskurs – ein neuer empirischer Zugang

The paper introduces a new empirical approach for measuring public opinion in the Internet: In a first step, all web pages containing relevant messages dealing with a specific issue are retrieved with a search engine. The pages are then content-analyzed in a second step. To answer the theoretical question of which kind of public opinion is registered by applying this method, the two basic paradigms of public opinion, which have hardly ever been connected so far, are discussed: public opinion as discourse and public opinion as measured by surveys. For the first time, both paradigms can be empirically compared by using a survey on the one hand, and the search engine based content analysis of web pages on the other. We conducted such a comparison for the issue of a smoking ban in restaurants, which was heavily discussed in Germany in 2007. The results reveal some fascinating parallels between both data sets and some differences, which are quite well in line with the theoretical assumptions. The paper finishes with some considerations on the theoretical and empirical capabilities of the approach.     

International Environmental Agreements,Fiscal Federalism,and Constitutional Design

In this paper, we analyze how the prospect of international negotiations over trans‐boundary pollution shapes intracountry transfer schemes when the governments of the countries' polluting regions are in charge of environmental policy and negotiations. Federal governments can implement compensation payments between domestic regions and matching grants prior to the international negotiations between the polluting regions. The subgame‐perfect transfer schemes fail to fully internalize the environmental externality, leading to an inefficient international environmental agreement. As the international spillover increases, the intracountry compensation rates increase while the matching rates decline, distorting the incentives for the regional governments in opposing directions. We also show that decentralization of environmental decision making arises endogenously.     

Can below-replacement fertility be desirable?

In this paper, we challenge the widespread notion that replacement level fertility is the most desirable level of fertility both for countries currently above and below this level. We discuss possible alternative criteria for choosing one fertility level over another. In accordance with earlier studies, we focus on age dependency as the sole criterion. But we do so by relaxing the strong assumption that all individuals of a given age are equal in terms of their economic contribution to society and introduce education as probably the most relevant observable source of population heterogeneity. Our criterion variable is the education-weighted support ratio and we perform thousands of alternative simulations for different constant levels of fertility, starting from empirically given populations. If education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during working age, then for most countries the desirable long-term total fertility rate turns out to be well below replacement level.     

Characterizing the sustainability problem in an exhaustible resource model

We provide a general condition under which consumption can be sustained indefinitely bounded away from zero in the continuous time Dasgupta–Heal–Solow–Stiglitz model, by letting augmentable capital substitute for a non-renewable resource. The assumptions made on the production function are mild, thus generalizing previous work. By showing that Hartwick?s rule minimizes the required resource input per unit of capital accumulation, and integrating the required resource input with respect to capital, we obtain a complete technological characterization without reference to the time path. We also use the characterization result to establish general existence of a maximin path.     

Do Overconfident Workers Cooperate Less? The Relationship Between Overconfidence and Cooperation in Team Production

The tendency to underestimate others' relative performance compared with one's own is widespread among individuals in all work environments. We examine the relationship between, and the driving forces behind, individual overconfidence and voluntary cooperation in team production. Our experimental data suggest an indirect and gender‐specific link: overconfident men hold more optimistic beliefs about coworkers' cooperativeness than men who lack confidence and are accordingly significantly more cooperative, whereas overconfidence, beliefs, and cooperativeness are not correlated in women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.