跨境网购中的消费者反馈信息和信任相关因素研究

随着在国外网站购物的消费者数量的增加,跨境电子商务的发展已极具潜力。本文针对"跨境网购意愿"的影响因素展开调查,建立了一个基于信任和风险的消费者行为模型;本文针对模拟的三个反馈场景,调研了912个样本,重点检验了"来自不同国家消费者的信息反馈对上述因素之间相关性的影响"。研究结果表明,在跨境网购时,"风险"和"信任"对购买意愿有影响,但二者受消费者反馈信息的影响相对较小,而其他因素间的相关性则会受到样本组间差异的影响,比如,在含反馈信息的样本组中,对电子商务的"普遍信任"会显著影响消费者对某一具体境外购物网站的信任。     

Supply chain integration and operational performance: The contingency effects of production systems

The boundary conditions of supply chain integration (SCI) have been widely studied in order to find out when SCI is applicable and effective. However, prior studies have mainly focused on external contextual factors, such as supply complexity, environmental uncertainty and country-level infrastructure. This study contributes to the SCI literature by examining the contingency effects of internal production systems on the relationship between supplier integration, customer integration and operational performance. Based on organizational information processing theory, we provide evidence to show that the impact of supplier and customer integration on operational performance varies across production systems, such as one-of-a-kind production, batch production and mass production systems. The empirical results also reveal how supplier and customer integration can be matched with different configurations of production systems in order to achieve the desired quality, flexibility, delivery or cost performance.     

Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models

Copulas provide an attractive approach to the construction of multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of forecasting the tail-dependences explicitly. Most of the available approaches are only able to estimate tail-dependences and correlations via nuisance parameters, and cannot be used for either interpretation or forecasting. We propose a general Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting tail-dependences and correlations as explicit functions of covariates, with the aim of improving the copula forecasting performance. The proposed covariate-dependent copula model also allows for Bayesian variable selection from among the covariates of the marginal models, as well as the copula density. The copulas that we study include the Joe-Clayton copula, the Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula and the Student’s $t$-copula. Posterior inference is carried out using an efficient MCMC simulation method. Our approach is applied to both simulated data and the S&P 100 and S&P 600 stock indices. The forecasting performance of the proposed approach is compared with those of other modeling strategies based on log predictive scores. A value-at-risk evaluation is also performed for the model comparisons.     

The effect of travel purpose and self-image congruency on preference toward airline livery design and perceived service quality

This paper examines travelers’ preference for airline livery design, which is an important component of sensory experience for tourists. Based on surveys of both U.S. and South Korean respondents, this study finds that airline livery preference depends on travel purpose (i.e. business vs. vacation). Designs preferred by the two travel segments differ in terms of color tone, hue, line, and shape. Business traveler-preferred designs signal punctual, efficient, classy, and safe service; while vacation traveler-preferred designs elicit feelings of fun, friendly, and exotic service. It is also shown that travelers prefer airline livery that is congruent with their situational self-image, depending on the travel occasion at hand. In fact, self-image congruency of design is approximately half of the variance in airline livery preference. Finally, results show that self-image congruency also increases perceived service quality.     

Effective communication styles for the customer-oriented service employee: Inducing dedicational behaviors in luxury restaurant patrons

The goals of this study were (1) to identify the optimal facets of communication style for customer-oriented service employees and (2) to examine the ways in which the customer-oriented service employee (COSE) induces luxury restaurant patrons’ dedicational behaviors. Customer dedicational behaviors are defined as ‘a set of active and positive customer voluntary behaviors towards a business induced by high relationship quality’. Based on the existing body of communication literature, nine types of communication styles were derived. Theoretical relationships between the nine communication styles and the COSE also were developed via literature review, and causal relationships between the COSE and three different types of consumer dedicational behavior styles were subsequently suggested. By integrating the derived theoretical hypotheses, a conceptual model was proposed and then tested utilizing data collected from 527 luxury restaurant patrons. The results of data analysis revealed that five types of communication styles (attentive, friendly, impression leaving, open, and relaxed) bear a positive impact on COSE, while one communication style (contentious) bears a negative impact. It was also found that the customer-oriented service employee plays a critical role in inducing three types of dedicational behaviors in consumers: enhancement, cooperation, and advocacy. The key theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed in the latter part of this article.     

Moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress in the U.S. restaurant industry

During the recent and ongoing economic turmoil, countless businesses have been facing financial distress and many have filed for bankruptcy. This issue is especially critical for the restaurant industry due to restaurants’ sensitivity to economic fluctuations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the financial distress issue in the U.S. restaurant industry. In particular, the study examines a moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between a firm's leverage and degree of financial distress. The dataset includes publicly traded U.S. restaurant firms during the period 1990–2008. The study measures the degree of financial distress by modified Z-scores, and findings suggest a positive moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress.     

利用大数据分析技术的智能化网络故障诊断系统

随着网络技术的快速发展以及各种新网络业务的出现,网络的规模日益扩大和复杂。同时,各种网络服务对于网络可靠性的要求也逐渐提高,这就对网络的维护提出了更高的要求。在这种情况下,传统的网络维护模式逐渐不能适应现代网络发展的需求。针对现代大型网络的故障诊断问题,利用大数据分析技术,设计并完成了一套整体的智能化故障诊断系统。在此系统中,针对不同的故障类型,利用能够获取到的数据类型,针对性地设计了相关的故障诊断模块和算法。系统整体基于开源的数据处理平台构建,具备良好的可扩展性。通过实际案例数据的验证,结果表明此系统具备良好的处理实际网络故障的能力,将大数据分析技术应用于网络故障诊断领域也具备较强的可行性。     

农地流转对农户生计转型影响的实证分析

[目的]为清晰识别土地流转对农户生计转型的影响程度,以期为后期土地流转政策及农户生计引导政策提供科学的决策依据。[方法]文章借鉴已有研究方法,基于农户可持续生计分析框架,利用内蒙古4个市区的380户农户样本数据,采用Multinomial Logit模型对参与土地流转和未参与土地流转农户的生计模式进行了分析,客观评价农村土地流转对农户生计转型的影响。[结果]农地流转在一定程度上对农户的生计转型产生了显著影响,拥有较低自然资本和较高金融资本的农户倾向混合型和务工型生计策略,同时人力资本水平高的家庭更倾向于采取混合型生计策略,而不是采取农业型生计策略。[结论]农地流转后,农户从繁重的种植业活动中得以解放,有了更多时间和精力从事非农生产活动,生计策略由单一化走向多样化,从传统的主要依赖种植业到经营养殖业、从事建筑业、交通运输业、批发零售业等非农行业,多元化了农户的收入来源。     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

海南高职酒店管理专业校企合作现状与分析

为了深入了解行业企业在高职酒店人才培养过程中所起的作用、具体的运作方式及不同企业的关注点,课题组对海南省15家星级酒店进行了问卷调查和深度访谈。调研显示,高职院校在今后的校企合作过程中,应更加关注行业企业的需要,进行教育教学改革,探索形式多样的校企合作人才培养方式。