Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

邓小平经济特区理论探析

在中国创办经济特区，是建设中国特色社会主义的一项重要举措，而邓小平关于经济特区的理论，则是建设中国特色社会主义理论体系的一个重要内容。“创办经济特区，是邓小平同志亲自倡导、设计并始终关注和支持的一项崭新事业，是我们党和国家的一个重大决策。经济特区作为对外开放的‘窗口’，为全国的改革开放一直发挥着试验，探路和积极推动的作用，并以自己宝贵经验为丰富建设有中国特色社会主义的理论作出了贡献。”邓小平经济特区理论包含着十分丰富的内容，从其提出，发展到获得普遍的指导意义，无不伴随着建设中国特色社会主义理论和实践的全过程。当前，进一步学习邓小平经济特区理论，对于我们全面建设小康社会，加快推进社会主义现代化的新进程仍然具有十分重要的指导意义。     

穆尔谈2002年世界贸易组织的新动向

<正> 本文是 WTO 总干事麦克·穆尔对成员方的非正式的新年献词,并对2002年 WTO 所要采取的行动提出了建议:过去的一年对于 WTO 来说是成绩辉煌的一年,或许是 WTO 短暂历程中最重要的一年,但是我们没有时间去回顾去年的成就,因为在卡塔尔多哈成功举行的部长会议上,部长们部署了很多我们应在很短时间内就必须完成的事情。正如美国贸易代表 Bob Zoellick 所评价的“多哈是一个使我们的贸易组织抹去西雅图会议的阴影的地方”。但是,现在我们必须保持源于这次     

AN EVALUATION OF PROCESS‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKS

Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

中国投资体制改革的二元性特征及其趋势研究——兼论投资体制市场化改革的重要性

一、中国投资体制改革的特征及二元投资体制的转化1.改革成为经济增长的基础因素。投资体制改革就是解决投资制度与社会资本的配置问题,其实质就是从国民计划投资体制的一元性投资机制引入市场机制,建立计划投资体制与市场投资体制并存的二元投资体制,其改革的最终目标是建设社     

The Contingent Value of Responsive and Proactive Market Orientations for New Product Program Performance*

While the benefits of being market oriented are largely accepted, a group of scholars and managers remain skeptical. Marketing scholars have sought to counter the criticisms leveled against market orientation (MO) by arguing that it has both responsive and proactive dimensions. However, few studies have empirically examined the complexity of the effects of these dimensions on firm performance. Drawing on theories of resource‐based advantage and organizational search behavior, this article advances understanding by arguing that responsive and proactive market orientations have curvilinear effects on product development performance, that their interaction may be positively related to product development performance, and that their effects on new product program performance are moderated differentially by the organizational implementation conditions and marketing function power. Survey results of 175 U.S. firms indicate support for most of the hypotheses. Specifically, whereas responsive MO has a U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance, proactive MO has an inverted U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance. Contrary to the arguments presented here, the interaction of both orientations is negatively related to new product program performance. This study finds that both orientations are needed; however, new product program performance is enhanced when one is at higher level and the other is at lower level. Finally, responsive MO is only positively related to new product program performance under specific conditions such as when strategic consensus among managers is high. On the other hand, the positive effect of proactive MO on new product program performance is further strengthened when learning orientation and marketing power are high. Overall, this study suggests that the effects of responsive and proactive MO on new product program performance are more complex than previously theoretically argued and empirically examined.     

2001年世界新造船市场回顾及2002年展望

2001年世界宏观经济形势较2000年发生了急剧的变化,美欧日等主要发达国家的经济增长同时减速。根据国际货币基金组织的数据,2001年世界经济增长率仅为2.4％,大大低于2000年的4.7％。作为世界经济火车头的美国经济在2001年下半年     

冀北地区幔源成矿作用研究

河淮地幔亚热柱的隆升，使岩石图发生强烈减薄的同时，地幔物质呈蘑菇状向外围造山带之下拆离。当幔源拆离薄层被造山带陡倾韧性剪切带切割造成减压释荷，使韧性软化岩石转变为深熔岩浆上侵，形成沿造山带轴部展布的点状或线状构造岩浆带，表现为以构造岩浆带为核部的隆升构造一幔枝构造。隆升较快的构造区段上覆盖层里揭顶式大幅度拆离，形成典型的变质核杂岩构造。地幔亚热柱→幔枝构造→变质核杂岩演化过程控制着成矿物质的运移、聚集、成矿作用，并在幔枝（变质核杂岩）构造的不同部位形成不同的矿床类型。     

板峪口—上寨地区韧性剪切带的发现及其地质意义

板峪口—上寨地区位于太行山中段阜平穹褶束与五台山—恒山花岗绿岩带汇合部位。该区发育两期韧性剪切带,第一期为拆离—滑脱型韧性剪切带;第二期为逆冲推覆型韧性剪切带。本文重点总结了韧性剪切带地质特征,并对其地质意义进行了讨论。认为原五台群为由一系列韧性剪切带分割的构造岩片叠置体。板峪口组和五台群金刚库组中的部分中深变质片麻岩为“外来岩片。”原五台山群与阜平群为由韧性剪切带接触。并总结了韧性剪切带对金矿的成矿、控矿规律。