农村小额保险与小额信贷结合发展及其模式探讨

小额保险是一种新型保险项目,它以低廉的保费为中低收入人群提供能够保障基本生活的保险产品,具有商业性和社会公益性的双重特征,被认为是一项重要的扶贫措施。农村小额信贷在支持三农发展、帮助农村低收入群体脱贫方面起到不可替代的作用。本文分析了小额信贷机构在经营中面临的信贷风险,在对比国际经验的基础上指出农村小额信贷与小额保险相结合的发展模式,是我国发展农村金融可资借鉴的一种良好模式。文中分析指出了农村小额信贷与农村小额保险相结合的必要性与紧迫性,并提出发展农村小额信贷与农村小额保险的政策建议。     

河南省农业科技进步贡献率的测算和分析

本文运用改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和索洛增长速度方程,对1985—2008年河南省农业科技进步对农业经济增长的贡献率进行了测算。研究结果表明,1985—2008年河南省农业科技进步对农业经济增长的贡献率达到46.47%,仅次于物资投入的贡献率,而劳动投入和土地的贡献率却很小;从经济增长发展阶段来看,"十五"期间河南省农业科技进步对农业经济增长的贡献率最大,达到55.08%,但没有呈现规律性的增长态势。     

China’s value-added tax reform,firm behavior and performance

China reformed value-added tax (VAT) by removing investment from the tax base in northeastern provinces in 2004, which is a “natural experiment” of its tax system. Using difference-in-differences method, this paper for the first time investigates the impact of VAT reform on China firms’ fixed asset investment, employment behavior, innovative activities, and productivity, and furthermore discusses the impact of firm behavior on industrial structural upgrade and employment with a firm-level panel data of large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China. We find that VAT reform significantly promotes firms’ fixed asset investment, and increases firms’ capital-labor ratio and productivity; while enhancement of firms’ productivity is mainly achieved by means of substituting labor with capital, rather than independent technology innovation; meanwhile, VAT reform distinctly decreases employment. Our findings have essential policy implications on the extension of VAT reform in the entire China.     

The effects of heterogeneous interaction and risk attitude adaptation on the evolution of cooperation

This paper addresses the evolution of cooperation in a multi-agent system with agents interacting heterogeneously with each other based on the iterated prisoner’s dilemma (IPD) game. The heterogeneity of interaction is defined in two models. First, agents in a network are restricted to interacting with only their neighbors (local interaction). Second, agents are allowed to adopt different IPD strategies against different opponents (discriminative interaction). These two heterogeneous interaction scenarios are different to the classical evolutionary game, in which each agent interacts with every other agent in the population by adopting the same strategy against all opponents. Moreover, agents adapt their risk attitudes while engaging in interactions. Agents with payoffs above (or below) their aspirations will become more risk averse (or risk seeking) in subsequent interactions, wherein risk is defined as the standard deviation of one-move payoffs in the IPD game. In simulation experiments with agents using only own historical payoffs as aspirations (historical comparison), we find that the whole population can achieve a high level of cooperation via the risk attitude adaptation mechanism, in the cases of either local or discriminative interaction models. Meanwhile, when agents use the population’s average payoff as aspirations (social comparison) for adapting risk attitudes, the high level of cooperation can only be sustained in a portion of the population (i.e., partial cooperation). This finding also holds true in both of the heterogeneous scenarios. Considering that payoffs cannot be precisely estimated in a realistic IPD game, simulation experiments are also conducted with a Gaussian disturbance added to the game payoffs. The results reveal that partial cooperation in the population under social comparison is more robust to the variation in payoffs than the global cooperation under historical comparison.     

创业者经验对创业机会识别影响模型构建

基于现有创业经验学习研究文献,清晰地界定了创业机会识别、创业者经验、创业学习和创业自我效能的概念,划分其维度,深入探讨了创业者经验对创业机会识别的作用机制,提出相关理论命题,构建了创业者经验-创业学习、创业自我效能-创业机会识别理论模型,为创业者经验实证研究奠定了必要的理论基础。在此基础上,指出研究局限,并对未来创业者经验研究方向进行了展望。     

跨国公司研发投资的前向关联模式

经济全球化背景下,跨国公司为保持市场竞争优势和技术领先地位在全球范围内进行R&D投资,这为东道国通过产业关联获取跨国公司技术资源以提高本国产业技术水平创造了机会。从前向关联模式角度入手,研究了跨国公司与东道国本土企业通过R&D投资建立产业关联的动因、关联溢出效应及技术溢出路径,揭示了跨国公司R&D投资与东道国企业建立前向关联的内在机理,可为我国政府有效利用跨国公司R&D投资提升本土企业技术水平提供相应的管理启示和政策建议。     

开盘价操纵与定价效率——基于高频数据的开盘价操纵识别模型

本文利用2007-2018年中国A股上市公司作为研究样本,基于异常交易行为构建了开盘价操纵识别模型,并利用分时高频数据实现了疑似开盘价操纵行为的监测.基于识别模型侦测的疑似开盘价操纵行为,本文实证检验了开盘价操纵与定价效率之间的关系.研究结果表明:开盘价操纵提升了 日内股价短期收益率的可预测性,降低了定价效率.开盘价操纵吸引了散户投资者的流入,进而降低了定价效率,受操纵股票的散户投资者参与程度越高,定价效率越低.同时,信息不对称程度越高、投资者情绪越高涨、羊群行为越严重,开盘价操纵对定价效率的损害程度越大.     

皖江城市带城市经济联系与中心城市辐射范围分析

分析经济区内城市间经济联系不仅有利于引导城市的空间发展,而且有利于空间经济的合理组织。以皖江城市带为例,引入克鲁格曼指数、建成区面积、人口素质权重系数等指标修正了以往的引力模型,并利用城市间的日发车班次数据对修正模型进行了检验。在此基础上,利用修正模型确定了各城市的主要对外联系方向及联系强度,采用断裂点公式计算了中心城市的吸引范围。结果表明:①皖江城市带内各城市对外经济联系强度差异较大;②各城市的主要联系方向呈现中心城市指向性和地域相邻指向性特征;③合肥和芜湖为皖江城市带的两个经济中心城市,它们的对外吸引范围较为狭小。     

路径依赖对公司数字创业的抑制及免疫机制研究

路径依赖是在位企业实现数字创业面临的必然挑战,而对企业如何有效利用内外部资源克服路径依赖,现有研究并未形成明确的观点。基于组织免疫理论,遵循抑制—免疫分析思路,从战略联盟和资源拼凑内外视角探究公司数字创业中克服路径依赖的免疫机制。实证结果表明,路径依赖对公司数字创业具有显著抑制作用;战略联盟与资源拼凑均能够对路径依赖的抑制作用产生免疫效应,但针对路径依赖的3个表现维度,战略联盟与资源拼凑发挥的免疫效应存在显著差异。