Labour-Market Developments at a Time of Heightened Uncertainty

These are testing times for labour-market policies in Indonesia. The country faces two major challenges in an unpredictable international and domestic environment: providing people with better, more secure jobs and raising productivity to help raise living standards and reduce poverty. Over the past several months, new global and domestic threats to economic growth have emerged and may hinder progress in jobs and productivity. In the longer term, the government is searching for new strategies to increase productivity, with a focus on supply-side investments in skills and training. In relation to events abroad, uncertainty has increased over the early initiatives taken by the new US president and his nationalist administration, such as the scuttling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. At home, likely to be of some significance for economic policy are mass actions that were levelled against Jakarta’s governor but de facto also directed against the government. In the medium term, our assessment of the record of the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) government on the labour market is mixed. Over the past two years, growth has been slower than under the previous administration and hence job creation has also been muted. The experience of a handful of countries in Asia suggests that the government might have done more to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. The disappointing performance of manufacturing stands out. Yet inflation has fallen and the slide in the value of international trade—both exports and imports—has reversed in recent months. Improved fiscal management and a generally successful tax amnesty are other pluses. There was also an unexpected but considerable fall in unemployment in 2015–16, according to labour-force statistics. Some policies, such as the new approach to minimum wages, seem to have had beneficial effects for both business and the economy, and Indonesia has done well in some international rankings, such as the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. However, the picture for the medium to longer term seems less bright for the labour market. There has been much talk about raising productivity by improving skills through government support for investment in training and apprenticeships, as well as by expanding vocational training along the lines of the German model. Expanding tourism is seen as one solution to the lack of employment for young secondary- and tertiary-educated jobseekers. But we have an impression of policy-making on the run; often, the argument for government intervention has not been made clearly enough. We argue that Indonesia still lacks a coherent, well-thought-out plan to increase jobs and productivity.     

国家创新体系视角下的创新型企业建设工程绩效评价

从2006年起,科技部、国资委、全国总工会三部门联合启动了创新型企业建设工程,由此我国创新型企业建设进入快速发展阶段,经过多年的培育,创新型企业建设工程到底有没有取得预想的结果?本文采用非介入研究、对比研究、综合分析等方法,综合评价了创新型企业建设工程近几年来所取得的主要成效,发现创新型企业已经成为我国研发投入的主要力量,其自主创新能力与国际竞争力持续提高,对国民经济发展的贡献日益显著.与发达国家相比,我国研发经费所占GDP的比重较低、研发人员在劳动力中的比例较低、技术对外依存度较高、发明专利的申请有效率较低.     

闽台食品供应链标章与规范整合研究

闽台食品供应链标章与规范及其监管路径和制度存在较大差距.探讨闽台食品及农产品标准对接和供应链标章与规范整合的可行路径,有助于推动闽台农业经贸一体化愿景的实现.     

PORTFOLIO CHOICE VIA QUANTILES

A portfolio choice model in continuous time is formulated for both complete and incomplete markets, where the quantile function of the terminal cash flow, instead of the cash flow itself, is taken as the decision variable. This formulation covers a wide body of existing and new models with law‐invariant preference measures, including expected utility maximization, mean–variance, goal reaching, Yaari's dual model, Lopes' SP/A model, behavioral model under prospect theory, as well as those explicitly involving VaR and CVaR in objectives and/or constraints. A solution scheme to this quantile model is proposed, and then demonstrated by solving analytically the goal‐reaching model and Yaari's dual model. A general property derived for the quantile model is that the optimal terminal payment is anticomonotonic with the pricing kernel (or with the minimal pricing kernel in the case of an incomplete market if the investment opportunity set is deterministic). As a consequence, the mutual fund theorem still holds in a market where rational and irrational agents co‐exist.     

《现代电视技术》课程教学改革新探

《现代电视技术》是电类专业学生的一门重要应用性课程,为激发学生学习兴趣,最大程度提高学生的实践技能,本文从教材选择、实验与实训以及成绩评定等几方面对《现代电视技术》课程的教学改革进行了探讨。     

WIN7平台ARP网络攻防

为了确认Windows7平台下ARP欺骗攻击的防御能力,利用arpfree命令行工具,模拟三种不同的ARP网络攻击,分析攻击结果及对Windows7的性能影响,并检测ARP防火墙在面对以上攻击时的防御能力。未安装防火墙的Windows7可以防御ARPRequest攻击,但三种攻击都会显著的占用带宽资源。Windows7在防火墙的支持下,可以防御三种攻击,只能发现并阻断ARPRequest攻击,两种攻击仍然会占用大量用户的带宽与CPU资源。     

浅议德国的关系型融资

近年来,银行与企业之间的关系型融资在世界范围内得到广泛运用。在美、日、德等发达国家,关系型融资已成为企业外部融资的一条有效途径,并对企业的经营管理产生着重要的影响。本文总结分析了德国关系型融资模式的特点,希望能够对我国企业的外部融资有一定的指导意义。     

卧式釜搅拌调速变频器的故障分析及解决方法

在卧式釜搅拌改造过程中,根据生产工艺要求,采用变频器调速方式.但在实际使用中经常发生由于变频器不匹配及内部参数设置不当,导致变频器不能正常投入使用.文章对过载过流故障进行排查和原因分析,并根据经验进行估算,更换了1台相匹配变频器,解决了卧式釜搅拌的调速问题.     

Trading frequency and volatility clustering

Volatility clustering, with autocorrelations of the hyperbolic decay rate, is unquestionably one of the most important stylized facts of financial time series. This paper presents a market microstructure model that is able to generate volatility clustering with hyperbolically decaying autocorrelations via traders with multiple trading frequencies, using Bayesian information updates in an incomplete market. The model illustrates that signal extraction, which is induced by multiple trading frequencies, can increase the persistence of the volatility of returns. Furthermore, we show that the volatility of the underlying time series of returns varies greatly with the number of traders in the market.     

沪通铁路建设背景下的南通区位形势及交通行业影响预测

沪通铁路建设的帷幕在南通提出加快沿江沿海开发和建设长三角北翼经济中心的背景下正式拉开。沪通铁路工程将对南通地方交通格局及交通运输行业形成重要影响。文章将首先对南通地方交通体系的历史和现状作简要陈述,在此基础上,围绕沪通铁路的建设对完善南通地方交通体系格局的作用展开分析,然后就该工程对南通地方交通行业的影响作综合分析和预测。