A CLIOMETRIC REVOLUTION IN THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF KOREA: A CRITICAL REVIEW

Cliometric approaches to the economic history of Korea have emerged as a distinctive trend from the mid‐1990s. They have quickly made profound changes to our understanding of Korea's economic history from 1700 to 1945. The most remarkable include identifying the long‐term decline of agricultural productivity from around 1800, the subsequent upswing in economic development from the late nineteenth century, and the continuing growth during the Japanese colonial era, 1910–45. We survey primarily the Korean language literature that reports the achievements of this cliometric movement and speculate about the future research agenda.     

物流业上市公司的盈余管理模式研究

针对中国物流业的发展现状,以分析上市公司盈余管理的动机为起点,对物流业的盈余管理模式进行剖析.     

Effect of Price Limits: Initial Public Offerings versus Seasoned Equities*

In this paper, we examine the effect of price limits on initial public offerings (IPOs) using Taiwanese data. On average, it takes 6.24 days for IPOs to reach their equilibrium prices in the presence of a 7% price limit. We compare IPOs with their industry‐ and size‐matched seasoned equities (MSEs) and observe higher volatility levels on subsequent days for IPOs than for MSEs. However, the higher volatility decays within 2 days. Lower price limits interfere with trading and lead to higher trading activity on subsequent days for IPOs than for MSEs. We also observe delayed price discovery for both IPOs and MSEs. Overall, our results provide evidence about the effect of price limits on IPOs and generate important regulatory implications for countries imposing price limits on IPOs.     

DERIVATION OF AN INTERTEMPORAL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT MODEL BASED ON CASH FLOW COMPONENTS AND PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF A PROJECT'S NPV

If the first two moments (mean and variance) of the net present value (NPV) are known, various probabilistic information of possible NPV can be derived. However, in general, it is practically impossible to estimate the variance of lengthy investment projects due to difficulties in estimating all the intertemporal correlation coefficients between cash flows of two different periods. In this paper, we derive an estimation model for the intertemporal coefficients based on cash flow components and show how the model, under a certain assumption, can be used for estimating and deriving probabilistic information.     

High Performance Work Practices and Employee Voice: A Comparison of Japanese and Korean Workers

Using a unique new cross‐national survey of Japanese and Korean workers, we report the first systematic evidence on the effects on employee voice of High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs) from the two economies that are noted for the wide use of HPWPs. We find for both nations that: (i) workers in firms with HPWPs aimed at creating opportunities for employees to get involved (such as shopfloor committees and small group activities) are indeed more likely to have stronger senses of influence and voice on shopfloor decision making than other workers; (ii) workers whose pay is tied to firm performance are more likely to have a stake in firm performance and hence demand such influence and voice; and (iii) consequently workers in firms with HPWPs are more likely to make frequent suggestions for productivity increase and quality improvement. As such, this paper contributes to a small yet growing new empirical literature that tries to understand the actual process and mechanism through which HPWPs lead to better enterprise performance.     

The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing—Not Decreasing

We investigate the relationship between earnings and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows from 1973 to 2000. Although the extant research indicates a weakening relationship between contemporaneous earnings and stock prices over time, we find that the relationship between current earnings and future operating cash flows has increased over time. This result holds for numerous divisions of our sample. Out‐of‐sample predictions of operating cash flows generally show increasing forecast accuracy over time. Increasing accounting conservatism appears to play a role in this phenomenon.     

The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of post-war U.S. business cycles. We specify a time-series model for real GNP and consumption in which the two share a common stochastic trend and transitory component, and Markov-regime switching is used to model business cycle phases in these components. The timing of switches between business cycle phases is allowed to differ across the permanent and transitory components. We find strong evidence of a lead-lag relationship between the switches in the two components. Specifically, switches in the permanent component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions.     

Disagreements among Shareholders over a Firm's Disclosure Policy

This paper examines the issue of voluntary disclosure of information by firms with heterogeneous shareholders. It shows that in a rational expectations setting, better informed shareholders prefer less disclosure than less well-informed shareholders. This is due to differences in the adverse risk-sharing effect and the beneficial cost-saving effect of disclosure among shareholders with different risk tolerances and information acquisition cost functions. The presence of individual liquidity shocks is shown to reduce shareholder disagreements regarding a firm's disclosure policy.     

Can the U.S. Interbank Market Be Revived?

The U.S. interbank market essentially disappeared as the reserve supply dramatically increased after the 2007–2008 crisis. We build a model to study whether the interbank market can revive if the reserve supply decreases sufficiently. The market may not revive due to balance sheet costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although interbank volume may initially increase as reserves decline from abundant levels, the balance sheet costs may engender changes in market structure that completely replace interbank trading by nonbank lending to banks. This nonmonotonic response could lead to misleading forecasts about future interbank volumes.     

Politically Connected Governments

This paper examines the consequences of powerful political connections for local governments. We find that governments located within the constituencies of, and thus connected to, powerful congressional members reduce their stewardship over public resources. Using plausibly exogenous declines in the power of congressional representation, we show that the effect is causal. To better understand why connected local governments can reduce stewardship, we study electoral characteristics. Our findings suggest that the increased resources that come with powerful congressional representation allow local-government officials to reduce stewardship without material adverse effects on their reelection prospects. In sum, we provide evidence of a cost of political connections: they weaken local governments' incentives to act in a socially optimal manner.