On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias

A number of empirical studies on the efficiency of racetrack betting market have shown the ‘favourite-longshot bias,’ which means longshots are overbet while favourites are underbet. Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Japan, however, have produced some contradictory empirical evidence to the bias. One critical element in the efficiency test procedure is how to assess the unobservable objective winning probability of a horse in a race. This paper proposes a new test framework with a more general evaluation of the objective probability of winning than the traditional method. Unlike the traditional method, our model allows the heterogeneity of the horses and the races. We apply the new empirical method to test whether the favourite-longshot bias is present in racetrack betting market of Korea. We found that the favourite-longshot bias exists in the racetrack market of Korea and the result distinguishes Korean racetrack market from other Asian markets.     

浅谈网络技术在高校档案管理中的应用

本文阐述了网络技术对高校档案管理的作用及影响 ,提出了高校档案管理部门发展的思路。     

国外农户现代农业技术应用问题研究综述

在农业农村发展对科技进步的要求明显提高,对科技进步的依赖明显增强的背景下,研究现代农业技术的最终需求者--农户应用行为具有重大的现实意义.国外对于此问题的研究已经进行了半个多世纪,并形成了丰富的研究结论和成果.本文旨在对国外关于此方面的研究结论和观点进行整理和评述,以期对中国农户现代农业技术应用问题的相关研究和决策提供有益的参考.     

Monotone strong increases in risk and their comparative statics

We introduce a new concept of the monotone strong increase in risk (MSIR) order that imposes monotonicity restrictions on the ratio of the two cumulative of cumulative distribution functions as a special case of Rothschild–Stiglitz increases in risk that is the subset of the second‐degree stochastic dominance criterion. We show that the MSIR order implies that the conditional expectation of a random variable under one cumulative distribution function is greater than or equal to that under another cumulative distribution function. Restricting the payoff function to be linear in the random variable and limiting our analysis to risk‐averse decision‐makers who are prudent, we obtain appealing comparative statics results for the MSIR shift. This general conclusion can be applied to prevailing economic models having a linear payoff.     

“金融脱媒”背景下的商业银行发展战略

随着“金融脱媒趋势的不断发展,商业银行赖以生存发展的基础和环境也发生了重大变化,证券市场将成为资源配置、财富管理和风险管理的重要场所。在金融脱媒的大趋势下,商业银行如何把握证券市场发展的历史机遇,主动应对金融脱媒带来的现实挑战是当前应重点研究的问题。本文正是立足于这一背景,试图从我国商业银行目前经营中所面临的挑战出发,提出一些优化策略,这对研究我国商业银行的经营策略的选择具有一定的启发、借鉴作用。     

Interlopers and disorderly brethren at the Stade Mart: commercial regulations and practices amongst the Merchant Adventurers of England in the late Elizabethan period

This article examines the role of merchant companies in structuring overseas trade in early modern Europe by considering the commerce of the Merchant Adventurers of England, the ‘regulated’ Company which monopolized the cloth export trade to Germany and the Netherlands in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. It examines the Company's trade to its German ‘mart’ town of Stade at the close of the sixteenth century through a detailed case study of the trade of one particular merchant, John Quarles. Using correspondence between Quarles and his factors overseas, it considers how membership of this regulated trading company impacted on the practice of its members, both through its formal regulatory regime and the informal pressures that came with corporate affiliation. However, corporate privileges also created ‘shadow economies’ inhabited by the excluded, those castigated by companies as ‘interlopers’. The article considers the connections between interlopers and those ‘disorderly brethren’ of the company who were prepared to violate corporate regulations in pursuit of opportunities. It shows how the regulatory regimes of merchant companies were shaped by the changing practices of members and non‐members as they responded to the structural changes facing European trade in the early modern period.     

Trade,the Staple Theory of Growth,and Fluctuations in Colonial Singapore, 1900–39

Our paper enquires into the nexus between trade, growth, and fluctuations in the British colony of Singapore during the early twentieth century. Hitherto, little quantitative economic history has been written on this great entrepôt of Southeast Asia due to a lack of data. We overcome this limitation by utilising the gross domestic product series recently constructed for the pre‐war period by Sugimoto. This comprehensive data set enables us to explore the relevance and applicability of the staple theory of export‐led growth to colonial Singapore through cliometric analyses. The results suggest that foreign trade had acted both as an engine of growth and a source of economic instability.     

迁移与幸福

文章结合2012年度流动人口动态监测调查数据，系统考察了迁移行为对农民工主观幸福感的影响。研究表明：相比于省内迁移，跨省迁移对农民工的主观幸福感有显著负面影响；同样，相比于家庭化迁移，孤身外出也会显著弱化农民工的主观幸福感。在加入其他解释变量、控制地区效应，并通过倾向得分匹配法和处理效应模型纠正选择性偏误后，结论依然稳健。进一步，作用机制的分析表明，社会交往是迁移行为影响农民工主观幸福感的重要渠道，之所以跨省迁移、孤身外出的农民工主观幸福感偏低，很可能是因为面临着社会交往的困境，社会网络局限、社区参与不足。