日本货物贸易模式背离倾向演进研究:1976～2011

日本经济在进入稳定增长阶段后走上了一条出口导向型的经济发展道路。利用1976～2011年的SITC三位数分类产品的贸易数据,本研究根据产品的技术结构将其重新聚合为10大类别,进而深入分析了日本在各个产品类别上"净出口比率"、"对称的显示性比较优势指数"以及"贸易模式背离倾向指数"的静态分布和动态演进特征。在样本期间内,日本的货物进出口贸易普遍存在着净出口相对能力超出比较优势实际水平的贸易模式"正背离倾向"。在1985年"广场协议"和1986年"前川报告"后,日本的贸易模式开始明显地向均衡方向回复,但直至2011年,日本在绝大多数产品类别的贸易模式上仍然存在"正背离倾向"。本研究认为,对出口导向型经济发展方式的调整难以一蹴而就,并且是一个长期而痛苦的转型过程。     

Organisational justice and customer citizenship behaviour of retail industries

Previous research has concerned itself more with customers' purchasing behaviours but not non-purchasing behaviour. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate the organisational justice (OJ) and customer citizenship behaviour (CCB), including the mediating role of organisational trust. A survey was conducted on a sample of 447 fast-food restaurant customers in Taiwan in order to test the proposed model. The findings showed that the customers who have higher perceptions of justice have higher levels of trust and CCB. Positive relationship was found between trust and CCB. In addition, trust has a partially significant mediating effect between OJ and CCB. The findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical implications, and also provide some suggestions for managerial practice and further research.     

Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression

Exchange rates are known to have irregular return patterns; not only their return volatilities but the distribution functions themselves vary with time. Quantile regression allows one to predict the volatility of time series without assuming an explicit form for the underlying distribution. This study presents an approach to exchange rate volatility forecasting by quantile regression utilizing a uniformly spaced series of estimated quantiles. Based on empirical evidence of nine exchange rate series, using 19 years of daily data, the adopted approach generally produces more reliable volatility forecasts than other key methods.     

多媒体在工科院校教学应用中存在的问题及改进

多媒体已经成为高校教学不可缺少的手段之一,与传统教学相比有很大的优势,但在工科院校的应用中存在着教学节奏快、应用不恰当等缺点。根据上述特点,多媒体在教学实践应用中应注意与传统教学的适当结合、人机互动性的调动和实践知识的引入。     

“用负债比例显示企业质量”模型述评

“用负债比例显示企业质量”是信息经济学在企业资本结构理论方面的一个应用模型，它从信息不对称的角度指出资本结构是有关的，是资本结构理论最重要的模型之一。然而，一方面，这个模型存在企图用一个已知信息求解两个未知信息的严重缺陷，另一方面，它仍然局限于完全信息的理论框架内，值得进一步深化。     

河北省利用外资的成效和对策

河北省利用外资已走过了 2 0年的历程。 2 0年来 ,外资在河北的经济建设中发挥了重要作用 ,收到了突出的成效。但由于河北软、硬环境的限制 ,河北利用外资的水平还不高 ,不能满足河北经济发展的需要 ,应采取有效的对策 ,更好地利用外资。     

经济全球化与劳动密集型产业

一、经济全球化的特点目前 ,经济全球化 (ｅｌｏｎｏｍｉｌｇｌｏｂａｌ ｉｚａｔｉｏｎ)已成为当代经济学界使用频率最高的新词之一 ,但究竟什么是经济全球化却众说纷纭 ,莫衷一是。一般认为 ,经济全球化是指货物和生产要素在全球范围内自由流动程度提高的过程。它在几百年前就已经以各种方式开始 ,只不过在最近几年中速度大大加快了 ,特别是生产要素的流动速度加快。经济全球化发展至今 ,其特点为 :1、从经济全球化产生的原因看 ,是多方面的。但原因根本在于当代科学技术日新月异的发展 ,可以说 ,技术进步是经济全球化的物质基础。目前的…     

Stability and bifurcation in a simple heterogeneous asset pricing model

Stability and bifurcation analysis of deterministic systems has been widely used in modeling financial markets. We develop a simple pricing model with two types of rational traders, fundamentalists and chartists, in order to study well price behavior in financial markets, we use student t distribution to replace traditional normal distribution to describe fundamental price process. We study the stability and bifurcation of the underling deterministic system and use numerical simulation to study the dynamic of the stochastic system, including autocorrelations structures and high kurtosis of the returns. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced).     

Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data*

This paper analyses the relationship between production subsidies and firms’ export performance using a very comprehensive and recent firm‐level database and controlling for the endogeneity of subsidies. It documents robust evidence that production subsidies stimulate export activity at the intensive margin, although this effect is conditional on firm characteristics. In particular, the positive relationship between subsidies and the intensive margin of exports is strongest among profit‐making firms, firms in capital‐intensive industries, and those located in non‐coastal regions. Compared to firm characteristics, the extent of heterogeneity across ownership structure (SOEs, collectives, and privately owned firms) proves to be relatively less important.     

Idiot's Bayes—Not So Stupid After All?

Folklore has it that a very simple supervised classification rule, based on the typically false assumption that the predictor variables are independent, can be highly effective, and often more effective than sophisticated rules. We examine the evidence for this, both empirical, as observed in real data applications, and theoretical, summarising explanations for why this simple rule might be effective.