Incorporating the Bühlmann credibility into mortality models to improve forecasting performances

In this paper, we incorporate the Bühlmann credibility into three mortality models (the Lee–Carter model, the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model, and a linear relational model) to improve their forecasting performances, as measured by the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), using mortality data for the UK. The results show that the MAPE reduction ratios for the three mortality models with the Bühlmann credibility are all significant. More importantly, the MAPEs under the three mortality models with the Bühlmann credibility are very close to each other for each age and forecast year. Thus, by incorporating the Bühlmann credibility we are able to converge the forecasting MAPEs resulting from the three different mortality models to a lower and more consistent level. Moreover, we provide a credibility interpretation with an individual time trend for age x and a group time trend for all ages. Finally, we apply the forecasted mortality rates both with and without the Bühlmann credibility to the net single premiums of life insurance products, and compare the corresponding MAPEs.     

Information Asymmetry and Corporate Investment Decisions: A Dynamic Approach

This paper develops a dynamic model of the financing and operating decisions of firms in the presence of information asymmetry. When the value of growth opportunities is not fully recognized, securities are undervalued, thus influencing the financing and investment decisions. The agency‐based underinvestment problem is re‐examined under information asymmetry. For firms with greater growth opportunities, the investment distortion resulting from information asymmetry is especially significant. Information asymmetry also increases the expected bankruptcy cost. The cost of information asymmetry in terms of both the firm value and the information spread under the optimal capital structure could be substantial.     

Fuzzy Decision Making for Market Positioning and Developing Strategy for Improving Service Quality in Department Stores

Conventionally designed questionnaires frequently use the Likert Scale to gauge the feeling of respondents. The dichotomy and the same interval integer are clear-cut. Owing to the fuzziness of human thinking, this approach is inadequate and too simple to rule subject’s way and measure complex human thinking and cognition. Consequently, this investigation integrated the five dimensions of SERVQUAL and adopted a Fuzzy set theory based approach. The five criteria of SERVQUAL were tested for four department stores using Fuzzy set theory to clarify the positioning of service quality in the department store market and propose implementation priorities for different service strategies. This result permits managers to collate the service strategy of the benchmarking department store and its local competitors, and also enables department store decision-makers to consider the weights of the five dimensions when modifying the service strategy. The analytical results can be used to improve strategy development, and to devise superior and more effective management methods.     

Modes of cross-cultural leadership adjustment: adapting leadership to meet local conditions and/or changing followers to match personal requirements?

In this article, we present a study that explores modes of cross-cultural leadership adjustment (CLA) and investigates the forces influencing them. Nigel Nicholson’s theory of work role transitions was used as the theoretical foundation to explore work role requirements (consisting of role discretion and novelty of job demands) as potential predictors of modes of CLA. Our data were collected from expatriate senior managers working in Thailand. The results show that the majority of our expatriate executives make adjustments to their leadership approach and try to change Thai employees – thus demonstrating the adoption of an exploration mode of adjustment – and that role requirements, Thai employee characteristics, the local hierarchy system and the expatriate leaders’ perceptions all influence the latter’s modes of adjustment. Based on our findings, we develop a theoretical framework and a number of research propositions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings.     

What Promotes Online Group-Buying? A Cross-Cultural Comparison Study between China and the United States

Considering the universal prosperity of online group-buying (OGB), this research study used online surveys to gauge the impact of perceived risk, opinion seeking, and hedonistic/recreational and brand conscious decision-making styles on consumers' OGB intention in two diametrically distinguished countries—China and the United States. The research findings indicated both cultural similarities and differences in the mechanisms underlying Chinese and American consumers' OGB intention. Perceived risk emerged as the most important predictor in the U.S. data while brand consciousness was the key driver of Chinese consumers' OGB intention. Promotion and management implications based on the research findings are also presented.     

Strategic orientation and new product performance: The roles of technological capability

Although prior research has examined the linkage between strategic orientation and new product performance, existing empirical evidence suggests exploration of the effects of a firm's internal factors on this linkage is required. This study aims to fill the marketing literature gap by addressing how technological capability moderates the strategic orientation‐new product performance relationship. This study measures new product performance as a two‐dimensional construct to avoid the oversimplified bias. Research hypotheses are tested using a sample of 121 information system product projects and a hierarchical regression approach is utilized. Results show that (a) technological capability strengthens the market orientation‐performance relationship and (b) technological capability affects the financial performance effects of market and technology orientations via market performance. Copyright © 2014 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Government Spending and Real Interest Rate in an Open Economy

This paper investigates the dynamic effect of government spending in an optimizing monetary model of an open economy with capital immobility and fixed exchange rates. It is found that a rise in government spending will always lead to a reduction in real interest rates on impact. Moreover, real interest rates can be lower during temporary periods of high government spending. This result is compatible with the observation of low real interest rates during wars.