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921.
This paper makes three main points. First, whereas the Monetary Policy Committee's forecasts of inflation and output growth
in the UK are comparatively accurate, they cannot forecast deviations around trend, except at short horizons. Second, this
is primarily because they adjust policy, the short-term interest rate, to drive inflation/output back to trend at their forecast horizon. This is not apparent when
using a Taylor-rule using ex post forecasts, since these are published after taking account of policy changes. I use a rule of thumb to re-engineer estimates of the ex ante forecasts, upon which the policy decision was based. Also, because of the lengthy lags in the transmission mechanism, Central
Bank decision-makers relate their interest decisions, not to current variables, but to forecast values for future inflation
and output, with a forward-looking interest rate reaction function of the form:
Taking account of ex ante forecasts, with a forward-looking reaction function, gives very different results from the standard Taylor reaction function
estimates. Third, the coefficient of reaction to inflation deviations at the forecast horizon has been almost exactly enough
to return inflation to trend without need for any further change. So one might expect interest rates to follow (nearly) a
random walk. Yet they are strongly auto-correlated. This latter remains a conundrum which requires further research.
The Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Luncheon Address presented at the Fifty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference,
London, England, 9–13 March 2005. An earlier version of this paper was published in Issues on Monetary Theory and Policy: Proceedings of a Colloquium in Honour of Wolfgang Gebauer, eds, V. Deville, J. von Landesberger, M. Müller, F. Schobert and A. Worms, (Bankakademie Verlag GmbH, Frankfurt, 2005). 相似文献
922.
This paper analyzes the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization
programs. By providing financial support that may allow the reduction of inflation without incurring politically unacceptable
economic costs, the IMF can hasten stabilization. But, since support can also reduce the costs of inflation, it may instead
delay it. Empirical results obtained for 10 countries that suffered from chronic inflation fail to support the hypothesis
that IMF financial assistance accelerates stabilization. Rather, they indicate that other factors have a greater impact on
the timing of stabilizations: greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization, while a higher level of
inflation hastens it.
JEL Classification Numbers: E63, E31, F35 相似文献
923.
This paper evaluates the developments in the Turkish economy in light of the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBT) policies during a recent period of floating exchange rate system (March 2001–July 2003). It is found that the CBT was effective in containing volatility and reducing the average inflation rate while there was a strong recovery of output. However, there are accumulated risks in the economy. Particularly, the extreme appreciation of the Turkish lira during this period and the record level of real interest rates give the impression that the current state of the economy is fragile. Unless the government accelerates the structural reform process and pursues sound fiscal policies to reduce the public sector borrowing requirement and the debt ratio, an adverse shock to the system may trigger a reversal of fortune. 相似文献
924.
The large effect of currency union on trade volume has been well documented by Rose (2000). However, the effect of currency union on trade balance has hardly been previously reported. In this study, the effect of currency union is found to differ substantially across imports and exports when a developing country trade with developed country that anchors the currency. To ensure that the asymmetric effect does not come from the specific nature of countries that have adopted a common currency or endogeneity of currency union, we test the same hypothesis using nominal exchange rate volatility and real exchange rate level. 相似文献
925.
When the disutility of global pollution is measured in units of a numeraire good that is polluting in consumption, the marginal rates of substitution in consumption are generally weighted differently in each countrys calculation of marginal damages. In that case, it is inefficient to control global warming by tradable emission permits, which in theory trade at a unique international equilibrium price. This conclusion is derived from a model of Shibata (1996) in which consumption is pervasively polluting in global warming gases. Shibata dubiously based the inefficiency he discovered on the reciprocal external damages of global warming emissions rather than on the nullibicity he posed for a non-polluting numeraire good.JEL Classification Numbers: F02, Q4, Q25 相似文献
926.
Summary This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between pay and performance. Economic and psychological theories predict
that the design and implementation of a performance measurement and compensation system affect the motivation of employees.
Our survey results demonstrate a positive relationship between the perceived characteristics of the complete compensation
system and extrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation is not affected by the design of monetary compensation, but by promotion
opportunities. The compensation system also significantly affects work satisfaction and turnover intent. Our results have
both managerial as well as policy implications.
We would like to thank the organization and the participants of the 2002 conference of the Performance Measurement Association
in Boston for helpful discussions and also seminar participants of the Dutch Labor Market Conference. We are grateful for
the comments provided by Bruno S. Frey. The paper has also significantly benefited from the suggestions and comments of two
anonymous referees. 相似文献
927.
In the 1980s it became increasingly clear that the European Community market was still segmented by national borders because
of non-tariff barriers to trade. A major objective of the Single Market Program in 1992 was to remove these barriers, thereby
enforcing intra-union competition. In this paper, a panel of Swedish firm-level data is used to evaluate whether domestic
market power has been curtailed as a consequence of the SMP and of the Swedish membership in the European Union in 1995. Evidence
of increased competition emerges, as price-cost margins have declined in industries with high non-tariff barriers prior to
1992.
JEL Classification Numbers: F15, L11, C33 相似文献
928.
Chien-Chung?Nieh Yu-Shan?WangEmail author 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2005,25(1):55-71
This paper re-examines Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model to exchange rate determination by employing both conventional Johansen’s (1988, 1990, 1994) maximum likelihood cointegration test and the ARDL Bound test by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) for the monthly data of Taiwan over the period 1986:01 ∼ 2003:04. Ambiguous results are found for the long-run equilibrium relationship between the NTD/USD exchange rate and macro fundamentals. With the advantage that ARDL Bound test incorporates both I(1) and I(0) series, we conclude our empirical evidence that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and macro fundamentals. Moreover, for the short-run dynamic response, the result from the ARDL-UECM-MAIC (1, 10, 10, 8, 10) setting supports the overshooting of currency depreciation as pre-described by Dornbusch (1976). However, this overshooting phenomenon does not exist the current month, but one month after.JEL Classification: C32, B22, E44 相似文献
929.
Chaoshin?ChiaoEmail author David?C.?Cheng Welfeng?Hung 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2005,24(1):65-91
In this paper we observe that firm size (SZ) and book-to-market (BM) cannot fully explain stock returns on prior-return- (PR-) based portfolios in the Japanese stock market. The overreaction effect after controlling for the SZ and BM effects is significant and persistent, and accounts for a large part of the zero-investment returns on the loser to the winner. We therefore propose a new mimicking portfolio whose returns mimic the common factor in returns related to overreaction. Our evidence shows that the proposed four-factor model captures common variation in returns on portfolios, based on stocks SZ, BM, and PR, better than the well-known three-factor model does. 相似文献
930.
Incentives of Stock Option Based Compensation 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Elettra?AgliardiEmail author Rainer?AndergassenEmail author 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2005,25(1):21-32
We introduce explicitly the effort as a choice variable in a continuous time utility maximisation framework of an executive who is partly compensated with stock options. We solve the model in the case where the executive is not allowed to trade in the company’s stock but is able to achieve a partial insurance through trading in a correlated market portfolio. We define the executive’s value of the options through a certainty equivalence approach both in the case of European call options and non-standard capped stock options and study the behaviour of the reservation price as relevant parameters change.JEL Classification: G13, G30, G32, J33, M12 相似文献