基于精益理念的高校人才职业能力培养研究——以供应链管理专业为例

精益管理方式一直广泛用于全球制造业的运营优化并取得了举世瞩目的绩效。供应链是物流的高级形态,在面向供应链管理人才断层,难于培养,无法满足企业实际需求的市场环境下,文章从用人单位角度出发,提出引入精益管理理念,明确供应链管理专业培养的职业能力目标,去除培养过程中的"无增值"环节,对人才培养模式及课程体系的进行再造,提高供应链管理人才的职业能力。     

Two-stage DEA: <Emphasis Type=Italic>caveat emptor</Emphasis>

This paper examines the wide-spread practice where data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency estimates are regressed on some environmental variables in a second-stage analysis. In the literature, only two statistical models have been proposed in which second-stage regressions are well-defined and meaningful. In the model considered by Simar and Wilson (J Prod Anal 13:49–78, 2007), truncated regression provides consistent estimation in the second stage, where as in the model proposed by Banker and Natarajan (Oper Res 56: 48–58, 2008a), ordinary least squares (OLS) provides consistent estimation. This paper examines, compares, and contrasts the very different assumptions underlying these two models, and makes clear that second-stage OLS estimation is consistent only under very peculiar and unusual assumptions on the data-generating process that limit its applicability. In addition, we show that in either case, bootstrap methods provide the only feasible means for inference in the second stage. We also comment on ad hoc specifications of second-stage regression equations that ignore the part of the data-generating process that yields data used to obtain the initial DEA estimates.     

One-stage estimation of the effects of operational conditions and practices on productive performance: asymptotically normal and efficient,root-<Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis> consistent StoNEZD method

Understanding the effects of operational conditions and practices on productive efficiency can provide valuable economic and managerial insights. The conventional approach is to use a two-stage method where the efficiency estimates are regressed on contextual variables representing the operational conditions. The main problem of the two-stage approach is that it ignores the correlations between inputs and contextual variables. To address this shortcoming, we build on the recently developed regression interpretation of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to develop a new one-stage semi-nonparametric estimator that combines the nonparametric DEA-style frontier with a regression model of the contextual variables. The new method is referred to as stochastic semi-nonparametric envelopment of z variables data (StoNEZD). The StoNEZD estimator for the contextual variables is shown to be statistically consistent under less restrictive assumptions than those required by the two-stage DEA estimator. Further, the StoNEZD estimator is shown to be unbiased, asymptotically efficient, asymptotically normally distributed, and converge at the standard parametric rate of order n ^−1/2. Therefore, the conventional methods of statistical testing and confidence intervals apply for asymptotic inference. Finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is examined through Monte Carlo simulations.     

民用建筑火灾CFAST模拟及分析

运用CFAST6.0区域火灾模拟软件,针对一个典型的民用建筑起火房间进行火灾模拟计算,得出着火房间上层烟气温度、走廊烟气层高度、走廊下层烟气温度及走廊中CO浓度等随时间变化的火灾参数,运用Origin软件对各参数进行数据处理得出相应的变化曲线,并结合曲线进行了详细分析。     

Pricing a contract of linking home reversion plan and long-term care insurance via the principle of equivalent utility

Home reversion plans allow homeowners to tap into the value of their house and live in it until their death. The article considers a contract linking home reversion plan and long-term care insurance, which could better prepare seniors for their retirement and long-term care needs. Here, we assume the product exposes an insurer to two risks: the uncertainty of nursing care cost from disable, and the home value decreasing in real estate markets at the time of sale. Because the market is incomplete, we apply the principle of equivalent utility to price the contract under exponential utility.     

Strong measures of group coherence and the probability that a pairwise majority rule winner exists

A Pairwise Majority Rule Winner (PMRW) exists for a voting situation if some candidate can defeat each of the remaining candidates by Pairwise Majority Rule. The PMRW would be very appropriate for selection as the winner of an election, but it is well known that such a candidate does not always exist. This paper concludes a series of studies regarding the probability that a PMRW should be expected to exist in three-candidate elections, by introducing the notion of a strong measures of mutually coherent group preferences. In order for voting situations to be reasonably expected to fail to have a PMRW in a three-candidate election, voters’ preferences must be generated in an environment that is far removed from the situation in which there is a strong-overall-unifying candidate. So far removed, that it is extremely unlikely that a PMRW will not exist in voting situations with large electorates for a small number of candidates.     

Do size and unobservable company factors explain stock price reversals?

We use daily price data from the Egyptian stock market and a Loser portfolio of 20 IPOs from the late 1990s that experienced dramatic 1-day price falls in the period 2004 to 2007 to estimate a 2-way fixed effects model of CARs. Observable covariates are company size and turnover growth and unobservables company and period fixed effects. Our results provide evidence of significant price reversal over the first 40 post-event days. Firm size is negatively correlated with post-event CARs, consistently with the argument that small firms have a stronger tendency to price-reverse due to greater informational opacity. But permanent, unobservable company-specific factors, account for a much larger percentage of post-event variation in stock prices and indicate an underlying heterogeneity in investor responses to initial price falls not uncovered before in the literature. Strong negative company effects following a price fall are found to presage reinforcing ‘long term’ price falls and strong positive company effects to presage countervailing ‘long term’ price reversals. At the extremes these company effects are sufficiently large to suggest that a trading strategy based on them would be profitable.     

信息技术环境下高职电子商务专业课程教学模式的设计

信息技术突飞猛进,高职电子商务专业如何培养面向行业企业、掌握商务管理知识、具备较高信息技术水平的高端技能型人才？在信息技术环境下必须打破传统的封闭式教学、校企分开培养的机制,必须更新教育观念,创新教学管理,构建以学生为中心,理论与实践紧密结合、学校与企业密切合作、竞赛与考证相促进的新型教学模式。     

Endogenous elites: power structure and patron-client relationships

In weak institutional settings, autocrats barter political and economic concessions for support to remain in power and extract rents. Instead of viewing the favors’ beneficiaries, i.e. the elites, as an exogenous entity, we allow the king to decide whom to coopt provided the subjects are heterogeneous in the potential support—their strength—they could bring to the regime. While the ruler can select the elites on the basis of their personal characteristics, an alternative strategy consists in introducing some uncertainty in the cooptation process. The latter strategy allows the king to reduce the clients’ cooptation price since in the event of a revolution the likelihood of being included in the future body of elites is lower. We show that weak rulers are more likely to coopt the society’s strongest individuals, while powerful rulers diversify the composition of their clientele. Moreover, when agents value more future discounted outcomes, the king is more likely to randomly coopt subjects.