The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective

In this article we analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy—for a group of four Central and Eastern European countries. The recent literature shows that fiscal multipliers in the developed economies are higher during recession than expansion. So far, similar empirical analyses have been lacking for CEE countries. The results presented in this article show that fiscal multipliers in CEE countries differ with respect to the phase of the business cycle. Based on the SVAR methodology in which we allow for deterministic regime switching, we show that the government spending multipliers are significantly higher when the output gap is negative.     

Minimum Wage in Poland and Youth Employment in Regional Labor Markets

The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of a uniform minimum wage in Poland on youth employment in regional labor markets and to determine in which of the regions the effect is significant. The analyses are based on NUTS2 level in 1999–2012. The results point to a statistically insignificant parameter of minimum wage variable for the whole sample. However, after allowing the minimum wage parameter to vary across regions, we find that the relatively high ratio of minimum to average wages could be the factor limiting youth employment growth in less-developed regions in the southeast of Poland.     

Long-Run Performance Persistence of Investment Funds

This article analyzes the long-run persistence of returns and risk of investment in the assets of money, bound, and stock funds recorded on the Polish market in 2000–12. Portfolios of safe, hybrid, and stock classes are formed on the basis of tested funds. The persistence of returns and the Sharpe ratio are investigated in rolled five-year sub-periods, with one year step. Also, persistence in performance is assessed using classic CAPM and Fama and French models, which allow for evaluating management skills. We find the occurrence of the Sharpe ratio long-run persistence of money and bound funds. The study does not explicitly show long-run persistence in hybrid and stock fund portfolios. The CAPM and Fama and French models simulations of returns on stock and hybrid funds indicate varying management skills during five-year periods.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

Partial privatisation: The caveats and expriences

Partial privatisation, in which a more or less large number of residul shareholdings remain in the hands of the state, is a widespread phenomenon in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The following paper compares experiences in Poland with those of the UK, where there has been extensive privatistion of public utilities in the last 20 years, and concludes with some policy recommendations for the transforming countries. The original version of this paper was commissioned by the OECD and presented at its workshop on Management and Sale of Residual Shareholdings, Berlin, Germany, May 1996.     

Selection of a Representative Value Function for Robust Ordinal Regression in Group Decision Making

In this paper, we introduce the concept of a representative value function in a group decision context. We extend recently proposed methods UTA^GMS-GROUP and UTADIS^GMS-GROUP with selection of a compromise and collective preference model which aggregates preferences of several decision makers (DMs) and represents all instances of preference models compatible with preference information elicited from DMs. The representative value function is built on results of robust ordinal regression, so its representativeness can be interpreted in terms of robustness concern. We propose a few procedures designed for multiple criteria ranking, choice, and sorting problems. The use of these procedures is conditioned by both satisfying different degrees of consistency of the preference information provided by all DMs, as well as by some properties of particular decision making situations. The representative value function is intended to help the DMs to understand the robust results, and to provide them with a compromise result in case of conflict between the DMs.     

Unfolding intensity function of a Poisson process in models with approximately specified folding operator

Quasi-maximum likelihood histogram sieve estimators of the intensity function of an indirectly observed Poisson process are studied. The setup differs from the standard one in that the exact form of the folding operator may not be known. Instead, approximate knowledge on its discretized version is available. Conditions for strong L ²-consistency are given and admissible discretization rates are studied. In non-folding problems, the number of histogram bins may essentially increase at the usual maximal rate while folding reduces the allowed discretization rates. It is shown that, even in moderately ill-posed problems, the discretization effects may be critical for the strong L ²-convergence and that there is an essential need both for further regularization and for imposing stronger conditions on the estimated function. Not surprisingly, the most restrictive factor is the low approximation power of piecewise constant functions. A regularization method is proposed which suitably modifies the discrete approximation of the folding operator and ensures the strong consistency. Since no penalty term is being introduced, the EM algorithm can be used in its factorized, efficient form. Convergence rates are obtained in terms of the discrete problem. Received: July 1999     

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in a multivariate poisson process

Asymptotic normality and quick consistency of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in a multivariate Poisson process are proved. Possible application of the results obtained to the problem of unfolding histograms is briefly discussed.