基于因子分析法的农技员技术推广行为综合评价

农技员的技术推广行为是影响农业技术推广效果的重要因素之一。基于农户的角度,通过6项指标全面、客观地评价了农技员的技术推广行为,并运用因子分析法得出农技员技术推广行为的综合得分,以为继续探究基层农技推广机构管理制度对农技员技术推广行为的影响奠定理论研究基础。     

Minimum nurse staffing ratios for nursing homes

The authors explored minimum nurse staffing ratios for nursing homes using production function simulations. Minimum levels of registered nurse hours per resident day were 0.31, 1.83, and 3.3 at 50%, 75%, and 90% levels of quality respectively. These results suggest that efficiency-oriented minimum nurse staffing points exist, and could be used to inform policymakers and nursing home administrators on better resource allocation and health care delivery.     

Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price

Baumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338–351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real‐time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea‐based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor‐based Nelson–Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian yields similar results to those reported in their paper. Also, the futures‐based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons.     

Rewriting China’s Recent History: Fluctuations in State Economic Control, 1949–1984

China's political and economic systems are often discussed in combination. It is generally believed that under the political system of centralization, the economic system had to be a state monopoly. This article challenges that view by providing an economic perspective. The period 1949–1984 is selected to explore the causes of successive periods of strengthening and weakening of the state's monopoly power over the economy. Scholars have generally assumed that the period of state monopoly originated from socialist ideology or the personal will of the leaders. But economic conditions severely limited the options available. After the new China was established, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) did not try to create a fully socialist economy in the short run. Instead, the CCP formulated a New Democracy platform that pragmatically allowed many types of enterprise to function side by side, including private industry, household ventures, and state‐owned enterprises. The original plan of the CCP was to allow private enterprise to develop in order to build up capital to rebuild the war‐damaged economy so that a strong foundation could be established for creating a socialist economy. But the Korean War from 1950 to 1953 and an influx of Soviet capital caused a shift from a mixed economy to state capitalism by 1956. From that point on, Mao Zedong and other Chinese leaders had to change course again and again as fiscal crises limited available options. A reversal occurred in 1958 when the Soviets withdrew both their advisors and their capital subsidies, leaving the state capitalist system weakened. The crisis in the Chinese economy from 1959 to 1961 required decentralization of economic authority and efforts to promote rural capital formation. The next shift occurred after 1963 as the economy was organized to prepare for a possible military invasion. The required mobilization of industrial resources in remote regions of China inevitably reinforced state management of the economy. The final reversal occurred in the late 1970s, when imports of Western technology and equipment created another fiscal crisis for the central government, which then had to shift the burden of capital formation from the state to private entities. The reform of the rural household contract system, the adjustment of economic structures, and an increase in exports to gain foreign exchange all took place as part of “de‐monopolization” reforms. The reforms that occurred after 1979 were not an aberration or a radical break from the past. They were part of a pattern that evolved from 1949 to 1984, with fluctuations dependent on the weakening and strengthening status of state finances. The shifts that occurred during this period have either been ignored by observers, or they have been misinterpreted as being motivated by ideology. In fact, new policies were created to enable the government to adjust to changes in the internal and external environment.     

香港与国外高校预算管理的特点和启示

目前,我国高校预算管理中存在的一些问题正日益显现,加强高等学校的预算管理不仅对我国高等教育事业的发展具有重要意义,也将是落实科教兴国战略的具体表现。本文通过对香港及国外高校预算管理特点的分析,提出对我国高校预算管理的启示,同时,为"十二五"高校预算管理改革的实施提供意见。     

公共图书馆如何在党史教育中发挥作用

公共图书馆是社会主义精神文明建设的主阵地,也是党史教育的一扇重要窗户。本文通过对公共图书馆在党史教育中重要作用的阐述,在分析其具有的传统优势和明显特色基础上,着重提出了如何加快公共图书馆建设、如何加强党史教育的建议。     

浅谈变压器故障分析及运行维护

本文分析了变压器常见的故障和短路故障原因,介绍了变压器运行中出现的不正常现象和运行中的检查,提出了变压器发生故障时,处理之气味、颜色异常诊断方法。     

台风对福清渔溪至平潭大桥高速公路施工的影响

台风具有突发性强、破坏力大的特点,是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一。我国华南地区受台风影响最为频繁,其中广东、海南最为严重,有的年份登陆以上两省的台风可多达14个。此外,台湾、福建、浙江、上海、江苏等也是受台风影响较频繁的省市。通过对台风成因的分析,确定台风对福清渔溪至平潭大桥高速公路土建工程A1合同段施工的影响及控制措施。     

实习大学生的劳动权益保护——以《广东省高等学校学生实习与毕业生就业见习条例》为视角

随着高校扩招和就业压力的增大,大学生在实习期间的劳动权益保护问题成为社会关注的焦点。作为全国首发的《广东省高等学校学生实习与毕业生就业见习条例》在立法上的突破毋庸置疑。本文主要探讨《条例》实施后,实习大学生在劳动权益保护方面仍旧面临的问题,并针对相关问题提出了笔者一些看法。     

基于优先满意度最大的维修设施覆盖选址问题

以战时维修设施选址为背景,扩展了传统的最大覆盖选址模型的应用范围,对优先满意度函数进行了定义,并建立了基于优先满意度最大的维修设施覆盖选址模型,运用拉格朗日松弛算法对模型进行了求解。