Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

区港合一与厦门港城经济发展

区港合一指的是保税区、港口码头作业区实行一体化运作,在货物监管上采取一线放开、二线管住、区内宽松的自由贸易模式。按照构想,在厦门实行区、港合一,主要是充分利用象屿保税区坐落在东渡港区、区内无居民而便于实行隔离监管的优势,将象屿保税区与东渡港区进行组合,形成一体     

新时期广东省山区人口控制探析

20世纪90年代以来，广东省的山区人口增长速度虽然得到了控制，但与珠江三角洲相比还存在一定差距，地区之间发展也不平衡，生育水平仍不稳定，有效的人口控制机制尚末真正形成。因此，必须建立保障体系 和切合实际人口控制工作新机制，把人口控制工作寓于服务之中；加强计划生育队伍建设，提高队伍整体素质和工作效率。     

走可持续发展的道路,必须树立科学的“资源优势”观

资源优势不等于经济优势,它不是固定不变的。其在现代经济中的作用已让位于科学技术,利用不当会转化为劣势。所以,走“可持续发展”道路,必须遵循开发资源坚持以科技为先导、以市场为导向、开采与保护并重的原则。