Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on 15 OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies.First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change/Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.     

Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries

This article studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for 12 central European countries in comparison with the United States and the euro area. We find that inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the United States and the euro area. In most central and eastern European countries, for which our study covers 1993–2012, inflation persistence has also declined, with the main exceptions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, where persistence seems to be rather stable. Our findings have implications for the conduct of monetary policy and for a possible membership in the euro area. Among the two time-varying coefficient methods we use, our results favour the flexible least squares smoother over the Kalman smoother. We also conclude that the OLS estimate of an autoregression is likely upward biased relative to the time-average of time-varying parameters, when the parameters change.     

Drivers of Trust: Some Experiences from Hungarian Agricultural Cooperatives

This article examines the drivers of trust in the machinery-sharing cooperation arrangements of Hungarian field crops farms. Our research has focused on the role of 2 factors on the basis of the widely referred trust model: faith in loyalty and capability. The empirical results clearly confirm the hypothesis of the theoretical model, namely, partners will trust each other if their faith is high both in loyalty and in competence. Our research has also pointed out that the level of trust between partners is determined differently by the 2 examined factors: it is statistically proven that the impact of faith in loyalty is higher.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.     

Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary

This paper introduces a method of calculating physical capital stock figures in transition countries and derives data for Hungary. On the basis of international experience, we set investment and saving paths for future income levels. Confrontation of savings prospects of different sectors with investments needs leads to an economic policy analysis of the fiscal policy needed to catch up to 70 per cent of Austrian per capita income by 2030.     

SEMI‐NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONSUMER SEARCH COSTS

This paper studies the estimation of the distribution of non‐sequential search costs. We show that the search cost distribution is identified by combining data from multiple markets with common search technology but varying consumer valuations, firms' costs, and numbers of competitors. To exploit such data optimally, we provide a new method based on semi‐nonparametric estimation. We apply our method to a dataset of online prices for memory chips and find that the search cost density is essentially bimodal, such that a large fraction of consumers searches very little, whereas a smaller fraction searches a relatively large number of stores. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leveraged carry trade portfolios

Studying all possible pairs of 11 major currencies and 11 portfolios in 1976–2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. We explain these findings with the leveraged nature of carry trade: leverage may increase profitability but it materially increases downside risk. We argue that market inefficiency is related to the level of leverage.     

Comment on Johnson’s creating dimensional stock-flow inconsistency in Binswanger’s model

Binswanger (2009 Binswanger, M. 2009. “Is There a Growth Imperative in Capitalist Economies? A Circular Flow Perspective.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 31:707–727. doi:10.2753/pke0160-3477310410.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) constructed a model of a pure credit money economy with production to demonstrate the existence of growth imperative in such economies. This model entails a misspecification because money may disappear from the economy at the alleged minimal steady state growth rate (Gilányi 2015 Gilányi, Z. 2015. “A Brief Note on Mathias Binswanger’s Model.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:590–596. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1049927.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Johnson (2015 Johnson, R. 2015. “Capitalism’s Growth Imperative: An Examination of Binswanger and Gilányi.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:597–622. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1049928.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) attributes this inconsistency to the confusion between the stock of outstanding loans at the end of period and the flow of loans taken during the period; that he calls dimensional stock-flow inconsistency. On the grounds of this criticism he modifies some flows to eliminate the problem raised by Gilányi. Binswanger (2015 Binswanger, M. 2015. “The Growth Imperative Revisited, a Rejoinder to Gilányi and Johnson.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:648–660. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1050333.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) omits this criticism because it is a simple misinterpretation of his model; rather he explains the inadequacy of Johnson’s specification of flows. Doing so, he makes believe that there is still an unsettled debate on whether to treat loans as stocks or as flows in his model. This note demonstrates that both model specifications are dimensionally stock-flow consistent. Hence, Johnson’s criticism is just a narrative behind the rationale of altering flows in the model; the controversy is not on dimensional stock-flow inconsistency but on the logically coherent specification of the magnitude of flows in the model.     

Agenda chasing and contests among news providers

This article studies competition in contests with a focus on the news industry that is increasingly influenced by social media. The model assumes publishers to pick a single topic from a large pool based on the topics' prior “success” probabilities, thereby “chasing” potentially successful topics. Firms that publish topics that become successful divide a “reward” which can change with the number of competing firms and the number of successful topics. The results show that share structures can be categorized into three types that, in turn, lead to qualitatively different outcomes for the contest.