Inflow Composition,Duration Dependence and their Impact on the Unemployment Outflow Rate*

This paper presents estimates of the components of the dynamics of the unemployment outflow rate with British data. We allow both the composition of the inflow and individual duration dependence to vary over the business cycle. We find the inflow composition to be strongly countercyclical. Individual exit rates are found to be substatntially more sensitive to the business cycle than previously thought and than the average exit rate fluctuations suggest. Cyclical variations in duration dependence are not significant. With our estimates, fluctuations in the average exit rate out of the first year of unemployment are mainly accounted for by variations of individual exit rates, variation of inflow composition, and variation in the inflow level combined with the duration dependence phenomenon.     

The effects of corruption on growth performance of the mena countries

This article aims at testing the effects of institutional characteristics on growth in countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. For this purpose we consider conditional convergence in terms of initial conditions, macroeconomic performance, trade openness, government size, natural resource abundance and institutional and political structures for a sample of 90 countries over the period 1960–2000. We use regional indicators and MENA-specific variables in order to test for the effects of each variable on the growth performance of the MENA economies. We highlight the direct and indirect impacts of both corruption and bureaucratic quality on the MENA growth compared to the other regions of the world.     

Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence

Recent economic geography and trade empirical studies based on monopolistic competition suggest high levels of trade price elasticities (between 3 and 11). However, price elasticity estimations in trade equations using unit values as price proxies usually lead to lower values of around unity. We show that those inconclusive results may be due to some misspecification in these equations as well as measurement errors in prices. When suitable instrumental variables are used, within a panel of industrialized countries, we obtain high price elasticities, the majority ranging from 1 to 13. The highest estimates correspond to industries producing homogeneous goods. JEL classification: C2, C3 and F1.
Les élasticités prix des importations : un nouveau coup d'oeil aux résultats. Plusieurs études empiriques récentes fondées sur des modèles de concurrence monopolistique exhibent des élasticités prix estimées des échanges élevées (entre 3 et 11). Or, la plupart des élasticités prix estimées dans la littérature approchant les prix par des valeur unitaires sont plus faibles, de l'ordre de 1. Nous montrons que ces résultats non concluants pourraient provenir d'une mauvaise spécification des équations d'échanges ou d'erreurs de mesure sur les prix. Quand ceux-ci sont correctement instrumentés, sur un panel de pays industrialisés, nous obtenons des élasticités prix élevées (de 1 à 13). Les plus fortes correspondent aux secteurs produisant des biens homogènes.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the originator follitropin alfa to its biosimilars in patients undergoing a medically assisted reproduction program from a French perspective

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness (CE) of the originator follitropin-α (Gonal-F) in patients undergoing a medically assisted reproduction (MAR) program in comparison to its biosimilars Bemfola and Ovaleap in a French context.

Methods: A CE model was developed for France with a National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Clinical, safety, and dosage data were derived from pivotal clinical trials that compared Gonal-F to Ovaleap and Bemfola. Costs pertaining to drugs, hospitalizations, specialist visits, and examinations were retrieved from the French Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information (PMSI) hospital database, literature review, and French clinical experts using 2017?Euro tariffs. In order to test the robustness of results, deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses were carried out on the main variables to assess the impact of treatment cost, probability of birth, ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) rates, and dosage.

Results: The average incremental cost per live birth with OHSS and without OHSS was €259.56 and €278.39, respectively, for Gonal-F compared to the pooled biosimilars (i.e. Ovaleap and Bemfola). GONAL-F had an incremental efficacy of 0.06 over the pooled biosimilars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for Gonal-F with OHSS ranged from €3,274.80 to €4,877.76 compared to the pooled biosimilars, owing to the additional live births reported with Gonal-F. Sensitivity analyses also supported results from the base case analyses, with Gonal-F being cost-effective or the dominant strategy in most cases.

Conclusion: Gonal-F seems to be a cost-effective strategy compared to its biosimilars Ovaleap and Bemfola, irrespective of the incidence of OHSS events, but further data are needed to confirm these results.     

Killing two birds with one currency: Income and fiscal policies in a growth model of a currency union

Building on a two-country Kaleckian model of a currency union, we examine the consequences of balance-of-payments adjustment policies, focusing on the interdependence between the long-run growth paths of member countries. The model separates the short-run from the long-run dynamic, comparing price and wage dynamics in each country in the light of Thirlwall’s balance-of-payments-constrained growth model. We show that by shifting the burden of adjustment to the less competitive country, austerity and wage moderation policies lead to long-term recessionary effects. Only expansionary policies in the more competitive country can achieve the two goals of reducing external imbalances and increasing the long-run growth rate in both member countries.     

Googling Investor’s Sentiment: Powerful Measure in Conventional and Islamic MENA Financial Markets

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to investigate whether investors' sentiment measured by the Internet search behavior constitutes a valid measure of investor’s sentiment on Islamic and conventional indexes of emerging and frontier financial markets in MENA countries. In fact, we examine the relation between googling investor’s sentiment and monthly Islamic and conventional index returns during the period 2004–2016. Using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation, the BEKK-GARCH and the wavelet coherence models, we confirm that googling investor’s sentiment is a perfect indicator of investor’s sentiment measure. Indeed, we find that this measure has the ability to reflect major events such as subprime financial crisis, oil crisis and Arab spring revolution affecting MENA Islamic and conventional index markets. Our finding indicates that investors can use googling investor’s sentiment as an indicator to predict returns and volatility of emerging and frontier markets since it reflects the behavior and emotions of investors in MENA financial markets.     

Towards a fair procedure for risk management

The need for fairness in risk management is frequently expressed in the risk literature. In this article, fairness is connected to the procedure for decision‐making. Two models for procedural justice in the management of risks are discussed, one that focuses on a hypothetical thought experiment, and one that focuses on actual dialogue. The hypothetical approach takes John Rawls’ theory of justice as a starting point. The actual inclusion approach employs Iris Marion Young’s theory of inclusive deliberative democracy. With Rawls’ theory, important issues concerning risk distribution are emphasized, and a parallel between social primary goods and risk management is drawn. The hypothetical reasoning should mainly serve as a guide concerning risk issues that affect people who cannot be included in the decision procedure, such as future generations. However, when the affected can be included, an interactive dialogical reasoning is to be preferred. Here, Young’s theory is fruitful. It aims at fair decisions by fulfilling conditions of inclusiveness, equality, reasonableness and publicity.     

Does the impact of plant closure on labour market attachment differ between immigrants and native workers across the business cycle?

This article investigates the effect of plant closure on the labour market attachment of immigrants and how these effects vary with business cycles. The research covers two periods: one of economic upturn and one of economic downturn, and uses a rich employer–employee dataset. Results show that experiencing a plant closure in a recession has more severe individual repercussions than experiencing a plant closure in an expanding economy, particularly for immigrants. In good times, the long-term effects of plant closure are very small for both immigrants and natives, while in a recession, effects are more severe for immigrants, possibly leading to lasting scars for this group. These results appear robust using both matching techniques and fixed-effect models.     

Adherence,persistence, and inpatient utilization among adult schizophrenia patients using once-monthly versus twice-monthly long-acting atypical antipsychotics

Aims: This study compared healthcare resource utilization (HRU), healthcare costs, adherence, and persistence among adult patients with schizophrenia using once-monthly (OM) vs twice-monthly (TM) atypical long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotic (AP) therapy.

Materials and methods: A longitudinal retrospective cohort study was conducted using Medicaid claims data from six states. Patients initiated on aripiprazole or paliperidone palmitate were assigned to the OM cohort; risperidone-treated patients were assigned to the TM cohort. HRU and healthcare costs were assessed during the first 12 months following stabilization on the medication. Adherence was measured using the proportion of days covered (PDC) during the first year of follow-up. Persistence to the index medication was measured during the first 2 years following the index date. Comparison between the cohorts was achieved using multivariable generalized linear models, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results: Patients in the OM LAI cohort had lower inpatient HRU and medical costs when compared with patients in the TM cohort. Higher medical costs in the TM LAI cohort offset the higher pharmacy costs in the OM LAI cohort. Mean PDC during the first 12 months of follow-up was higher in the OM cohort than in the TM cohort (0.56 vs 0.50, p?<?.01). Median persistence was longer in the OM cohort than in the TM cohort (7.5 months vs 5.5 months), as was the hazard of discontinuing the index medication (hazard ratio?=?0.83, p?=?.01). Kaplan-Meier rates of persistence at 1 year were higher for OM patients than for TM patients (37.6% vs 29.6%, p?<?.01).

Limitations: This was a Medicaid sample with few aripiprazole LAI patients (5.4% of OM cohort). Medication use was inferred from pharmacy claims.

Conclusions: Among Medicaid patients in these six states, OM AP treatment was associated with lower HRU, better adherence and persistence, and similar total costs compared to patients on TM treatment.