中国金融市场信用风险模型研究与应用

文章运用中国金融市场和原银行信贷登记系统数据及人民银行组织的信用评级等数据资源,在金融工程理论和技术方法创新的基础上,借鉴国际信用风险模型中违约模式代表——KMV模型原理,实证建立由判别函数和违约强度共同构成的中国金融市场违约预警模型;借鉴国际信用风险模型中盯市模式代表——CreditMetrics模型原理,使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法实证建立中国金融市场信用组合计量模型;探索这两类模型在中国信贷市场、外汇市场、货币市场和债券市场风险管理实务中的应用;并在此基础上提出了政策性建议。     

深化中国农村改革的思考与建议

针对中国农村改革发展面临着的突出矛盾和问题,当前和今后一个时期,要按照统筹城乡发展的要求,协调推进农村经济建设、政治建设、社会建设,在农村基本经营制度、农村市场体系、农业支持保护体系、乡村治理机制、农村基本公共服务等重点领域深化农村改革,逐步实现城乡发展一体化。     

国际关系与国际法跨学科研究之路径

从本源看,国际关系与国际法关系紧密;从学科发展史看,国际关系理论与国际法学相辅相成。正由此,在两个学科的联结被割裂近半个世纪后,跨学科研究又在西方蓬勃兴起,甚至号称一个国际关系与国际法学派正在形成。相比之下,中国的相关研究刚刚起步,《当代国际法的发展:一种从国际关系理论视角的分析》一书正是起步阶段的一部探索性之作。该书是从国际关系理论的视角,对当代国际法与国际组织的实践进行的一种跨学科分析,试图为当代国际法的实践提供另一种途径的理论诠释。无疑,国际关系与国际法的跨学科研究必须克服很多困难,包括跨学科研究的难度、学科内的偏见以及学科之间的隔阂等。不过,正是由于跨学科研究本身能够给两个学科的进步带来的诱人前景,决定了其是一种具有强大生命力的研究路径,并将成为学科发展的必然趋势之一。     

Treatment experience,burden and unmet needs (TRIBUNE) in MS study: results from Turkey

Abstract

Objective:

To estimate the economic burden of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Turkey, including the relapses and disease severity, and to evaluate the quality-of-life of MS patients.

Methods:

The Treatment Experience, Burden and Unmet Needs (TRIBUNE) study was a multi-national, cross-sectional, retrospective, burden-of-illness survey. Total costs were calculated using unit costs derived from price lists or published literature, where relevant, and inflated to 2011 TL prices.

Results:

A total of 295 MS patients (74% females) were included in the analysis. The population had a mean age of 36 years; 73% had the relapsing–remitting form. Mean Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was 2.2. Twenty-two per cent of the MS patients required hospitalization in the past year and spent an average of 29.2 days/year in hospital. These values were 43% and 5.6 days for the outpatients, respectively. Total cost per patient/year was 18,700 TL (Turkish Lira). Total costs for patients with mild, moderate, and severe disability were 15,418 TL, 26,002 TL, and 44,208 TL per patient/year, respectively. The mean EuroQol 5D scores in the same groups were 0.73, 0.52, and 0.05, respectively.

Conclusions:

Multiple sclerosis imposes a significant economic burden on patients and society in Turkey.     

Effect of type 1 diabetes on school performance in a dynamic world: new analysis exploring Swedish register data

This paper investigates if the effect of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) on school performance, documented in prior research, has changed in more recent birth cohorts of children using national Swedish population register data. The issue is of interest because management and treatment of the disease have improved over the last decades and, furthermore, because of changes in the educational grading system. Despite these changes, data indicate a persistent negative effect of T1DM on compulsory and upper secondary school grades with a standardized effect size of ?0.109 and ?0.070, respectively, and the results appear only marginally smaller compared to earlier findings in cohorts completing school under the previous grading system. Moreover, the results are consistent for alternative model specifications and econometric estimation strategies. Whereas access to new treatment technologies and improved diabetes management strategies has reduced the burden of diabetes in daily life, the results from this study indicate that continued efforts are needed to improve the situation in school for children with T1DM to prevent potential long-term socio-economic consequences.     

线上金融活动中个人金融信息保护问题与建议

聚焦线上金融活动中个人金融信息保护问题,对部分开展线上金融业务的商业银行、小贷公司、征信机构等开展调研,对机构个人金融信息保护机制和制度建设、技术防范、查询授权、规范采集使用、教育培训等方面进行了分析研究.针对线上金融活动中个人金融信息保护在法律、技术和监管方面存在的问题,提出完善法律体系、健全内控机制、引导数据市场发展、加强合规监管、强化数据全生命周期安全防护等政策建议.     

英国应对主权债务危机的税收举措

2010年以来,在国际金融危机的影响尚未完全消除的情况下,英国又遇到主权债务危机的强烈冲击。2010年5月12日,英国新任首相、保守党领袖卡梅伦就职不久,即发布了财政紧缩预算案,通过大力压缩政府开支、以增税为主的税收政策调整等一系列措施以重振经济和解决财政困难。本文主要介绍其税收举措,以期对后金融危机时期我国的税制改革和税收政策调整有所借鉴。     

对鄂尔多斯转变经济发展方式的探讨

加快转变经济发展方式,是我国经济社会领域的一场深刻变革,贯穿于"十二五"经济社会发展的全过程。改革开放以来,鄂尔多斯依托丰富的自然资源,实施资源转换战略,实现了经济社会的跨越式发展。但是鄂尔多斯"依托资源,并不依赖资源",积极创新发展思路,着力转变经济社会发展方式,提高可持续发展的能力。