Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment

This study generates nowcasts and forecasts for the growth rate of the gross domestic product in Turkey using 204 daily financial series with mixed data sa     

Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

交互效应视角下政府补助、内部资源与创新绩效关系研究

以我国战略性新兴产业上市企业为研究对象,构建包含政府补助、内部资源和企业创新绩效的创新系统。建立PVAR模型,通过脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析系统要素间的动态交互作用。研究结果表明：在企业创新系统内,创新资源促进企业创新绩效提升的效果最显著,政府补助次之,政治资源最弱;进一步探究发现,创新绩效能够实现对内部资源的积极反馈,该反馈作用是快速响应的。此外,企业资源和创新绩效冲击对政府补助的影响程度很小,本期政府补助主要受到自身波动的影响。     

当前流动性过剩的趋势、影响与对策

一、流动性过剩的概念及过剩程度的度量 流动性过剩是一种比较复杂的货币金融现象,但又不完全属于金融问题. 1.以货币供应量衡量的流动性过剩程度     

淘汰高耗能落后产能的着力点

当前,根据中央的部署,我国对高耗能落后产能正在进行治理淘汰.但由于任务艰巨,存存进展缓慢、经济手段缺乏、善后机制亟待建立等问题.因此.应加紧实施淘汰落后产能专项行动,运用市场化手段和激励性政策,加快淘汰落后产能的步伐.     

政府规模、市场化与地区腐败

Using a panel data at the provincial level during the period of 1989–2004, this paper examines the effects of social and economic factors such as government scale, privatization, openness, and education on regional corruption. Applying a fixed-effect model and IV estimation, we find that government size positively affects the incidence rate of corruption, and the effect becomes larger with the increase in the size of the core department of the government. 1% increase in the core department of the government leads to a 0.68%–1% increase in the number of corruption cases. While the proportion of FDI is positively associated with the corruption of regional officials, the ratio of the import and export trade to GDP is negatively associated with corruption. The impact of privatization on corruption is ambiguous. We also identify the significant impacts of the size and structure of the government expenditure on corruption. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (11): 16–26     

浅谈新老路基不均匀沉降处理技术

结合我国部分高速公路改扩建工程对新旧路基拼接部的不均匀沉降问题进行分析讨论.     

Are you really doing good things in your boss's eyes? Interactive effects of employee innovative work behavior and leader–member exchange on supervisory performance ratings

Organizations increasingly depend on employee efforts to innovate. However, the quality of relationships between leaders and employees may affect the recognition that employees receive for their innovative work behaviors. Drawing from a social cognition perspective, we tested a model in which leader–member exchange (LMX) moderates the impact of employee innovative work behavior on supervisory ratings of employee performance. Results from two multisource studies combining self, colleague, and supervisor ratings consistently showed that employees receive more favorable performance ratings by engaging in innovative work behavior when they have high‐quality LMX relationships. Moreover, we found that this interactive relationship was mediated by leader perceptions of innovative employee efforts, providing support for a moderated mediation model. Implications for the literatures on performance appraisal, LMX, and innovation are discussed.     

Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models

In this study, we consider Bayesian methods for the estimation of a sample selection model with spatially correlated disturbance terms. We design a set of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on the method of data augmentation. The natural parameterization for the covariance structure of our model involves an unidentified parameter that complicates posterior analysis. The unidentified parameter – the variance of the disturbance term in the selection equation – is handled in different ways in these algorithms to achieve identification for other parameters. The Bayesian estimator based on these algorithms can account for the selection bias and the full covariance structure implied by the spatial correlation. We illustrate the implementation of these algorithms through a simulation study and an empirical application.     

基本经济制度探索:中国道路与治理效能

道路问题的探索,贯穿了一百年来中国共产党领导中国人民进行革命、建设和改革的全过程.社会主义基本经济制度是中国特色社会主义的重要支柱,中国共产党领导人民对其形成与发展进行了艰辛探索,走出了一条富有中国特色的改革道路.中国共产党在基本经济制度的改革探索中把马克思主义与中国国情相结合,通过走增量带动存量、局部带动整体的渐进式改革道路,实现了促进改革与维护稳定的有效兼顾,将有效市场和有为政府结合起来,兼顾了效率与公平.基本经济制度的完善,解放和发展了生产力,畅通内外经济循环,优化中国经济运行机理,多次创业创新创富浪潮孕育兴起,居民就业和收入极大改观.进入现代化强国建设的新发展阶段,实现共同富裕必须坚持和完善基本经济制度,持续深化各项改革举措.