A study of several new and existing tests for heteroscedasticity in the general linear model1

Several optimum non-parametric tests for heteroscedasticity are proposed and studied along with the tests introduced in the literature in terms of power and robustness properties. It is found that all tests are reasonably robust to the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) residual estimates, number and character of the regressors. Only a few are robust to both the distributional and independence assumptions about the errors. The power of tests can be improved with the OLS residual estimates, the increased sample size and the variability of the regressors. It can be substantially reduced if the observations are not normally distributed, and may increase or decrease if the errors are dependent. Each test is optimum to detect a specific form of heteroscedasticity and a serious power loss may occur if the underlying heteroscedasticity assumption in the data generation deviates from it.     

Equilibrium in abstract economies without ordered preferences and with a measure space of agents

We report a generalization of Aumann's (1966) existence theorem to economies without ordered preferences and with externalities in consumption. Our work can alternatively be viewed as a generalization of the Shafer–Sonnenschein (1975) theorem to economies with a continuum of agents.     

An empirical study of a new method for forming group judgments: Qualitative Controlled Feedback

The Qualitative Controlled Feedback (QCF) method was developed by Press [1] to assist policy makers in forming judgments and making decisions that reflect the careful interactive reasoning and arguments of all of the members of a group or population. Since the QCF method involves controlled feedback, it tends to minimize the effects of face-to-face group interaction pressures. Since the feedback is “qualitative,” however, the procedure tends not to artificially induce a consensus on the group. This paper summarizes a feasibility study of the procedure. A sample of 111 faculty and staff members of the University of British Columbia participated in the testing of the method. The participants were asked to make a judgment on the importance of building an aquatic center on campus. A second (control) group of 89 faculty and staff members was surveyed on the same issue, but using the conventional survey method, that is, no feedback. It was observed that Qualitative Controlled Feedback created a good interaction (in the sense of exchanging arguments and reasons) among group members. Changes in judgments occurred as subjects went from one stage to another after having qualitative feedback of information. It was also found that the judgments given by the subjects in the qualitative controlled feedback group were distributed quite differently from those given by the control group. The method suggests a significantly new way of collecting and interpreting group judgments.     

TESTING ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF GOVERNMENT BUDGETING

We develop three competing models of government budgeting: (1) a rational model, in which government services are provided in accordance with consumer tastes, (2) a Friedman-type model, in which spending and borrowing decisions derive from the level of taxes, and (3) a Buchanan public-choice type model, in which the extent of deficit spending determines government spending plans. We use quarterly U.S. data over the period 1947 to 1987 to empirically test each of these models within a vector autoregressive framework, taking into account the potential role of other relevant macro variables. We first specify the testing framework utilizing data on the levels of government revenue, spending and deficit, and show that the resulting estimates are unrealistic. We then divide each of these variables into anticipated and unanticipated components. The results thus obtained reject the Buchanan-type models, but are unable to reject either a Friedman-type model or a “weak” form of the rational model. Our results suggest that future research should concentrate on developing appropriate tests capable of distinguishing between these two models of the government budgeting process.     

Herding with collective preferences

This paper studies a simple model of observational learning where agents care not only about the information of others but also about their actions. We show that despite complex strategic considerations that arise from forward-looking incentives, herd behavior can arise in equilibrium. The model encompasses applications such as sequential elections, public good contributions, and leadership charitable giving.     

Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt

The recent credit crisis has raised a number of interesting questions regarding the role of the Federal Reserve Bank and the effectiveness of its expected and unexpected interventions in financial markets, especially during the crisis, given its mandate. This paper reviews and evaluates the impact of expected and unexpected changes in the federal funds rate target on credit risk premia. The paper's main innovation is the use of an ACH-VAR (autoregressive conditional hazard VAR) model to generate the Fed's expected and unexpected monetary policy shocks which are then used to determine the effects of a Federal Reserve policy change on counterparty credit risk and more importantly short-term firm debt financing. The findings answer a longstanding question sought by researchers on the effect of policy makers' announcements on firm debt financing. The results clearly show that the Federal Reserve influences short-term debt financing through the credit channel for both expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. In particular, we find that the growth in counterparty risk appears less responsive to anticipated responses in the Fed funds rate that fail to materialize than to an unanticipated increase in the federal funds rate. Finally, we also document that the results appear to validate the Feds interventions in financial markets to stem counterparty risk and to make liquidity more readily available to firms.     

Disaggregation and consolidation of imperfect quality shipments in an extended EPQ model

We consider a standard economic production quantity (EPQ) model. Due to manufacturing variability, a fraction P of the produced inventory will have imperfect quality, where P is a random variable with a known distribution. We consider a 100% inspection policy and further assume that the inspection rate is larger than that of production. Thus, all imperfect quality items will be detected by the end of the production cycle. For such an augmented EPQ model, we first derive the new optimal production quantity assuming that the imperfect quality items are salvaged once at the end of every production cycle. Then, we extend this base model to allow for disaggregating the shipments of imperfect quality items during a single production run. Finally, we consider aggregating (or consolidating) the shipments of imperfect items over multiple production runs. Under both scenarios we derive closed-form expressions for both the economic production quantity and the batching policy, and show that our desegregation/consolidation schemes can lead to significant cost savings over the base model.     

IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis

This paper has three objectives. First, using a richer and more comprehensive set of IMF-related news than previous studies, we examine the impact of IMF-related news on both financial and real stock sector returns in Indonesia during the Asian crisis. Second, we draw lessons about financial and real sectoral patterns of adjustment in crisis countries, including whether and how IMF programs facilitate this adjustment. Third, we explore the interplay between IMF actions in crisis countries and the actions and responses of local authorities. To do so, not only do we account for the impact of news regarding IMF policy actions but also the government’s reaction to them and willingness to implement such policies, and the public sentiment about the implemented IMF programs and government policies. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

Product standardisation in the food service industry: post-purchase attitudes and repurchase intentions of non-Muslims after consuming halal food

In order to satisfy the Muslim market segment, many restaurant and fast food companies in Western countries have standardised their products by switching to halal. The purpose of this research is to discover the extent to which non-Muslim consumers in non-Muslim countries experience cognitive dissonance when they think about restaurants and fast food outlets having likely served them halal-produced food, and the extent to which these consumers intend to repurchase halal food. Data came from a total sample of 1097 non-Muslim consumers in Canada, Spain and the United Kingdom. The full model, with religious identity, ethnic identification and interest in animal welfare as antecedents of cognitive dissonance, explained 35% of the variance in consumers’ repurchase intentions. Our findings suggest that many non-Muslims do not have a particular issue with consuming halal food, but they may react negatively if they unintentionally consume halal food and perceive that they have been deprived of information, or worse still, deliberately deceived. The research makes a number of contributions to marketing knowledge with regard to the negative spillover effects that can result from faith-based product standardisation, and the influences of consumer interest in animal welfare and deprivation of product information on consumer behaviour.