Semiotische und verbandstheoretische Grundzüge einer elementaren Statistik

Zusammenfassung Die Statistik wird als ein formalisiertes Sprachsystem gedeutet und verschiedene Statistikalgorithmen werden über einenBooleschen Verband gebildet. Es werden nur nichtstochastische Probleme behandelt.

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Summary Statistic is considered a formalized language system. Some statistical algorithms are interpreted in aBoolean lattice. Only nonstochastical problems are considered.

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Der erste Teil dieser Abhandlung über eine attributive Statistik alsBoolescher Verband wurde im Heft Nr. 2 (1964) der Metrika als Festbeitrag zum 80. Geburtstag des Jubilars Hofrat Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c.Wilhelm Winkler ver?ffentlicht. Statistische Ma?verb?nde erscheinen über eine quasiadditive Bewertung eingeführt. Im vorliegenden zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden die Beziehungen der Statistik zurβ-Informationstheorie und einer speziellen Semiotik kurz er?rtert und die Algebraisierungs-beziehungsweise Geometrisierungsversuche betreffend die statistischen Forschungsmethoden weitergeführt.     

Improving retirement adequacy through asset class prioritization

Highly risk-averse retirees are generally advised to adopt a fixed spending strategy such as the 4% withdrawal rule. To prevent the premature depletion of a retirement portfolio, the rule attempts to proxy as the ‘safe withdrawal rate’. But a constant withdrawal rate means that retirees accumulate unspent surpluses when markets outperform and face spending shortfalls when markets underperform. While a safe withdrawal rate can prevent spending shortfalls, the opportunity cost of unspent surpluses associated with this strategy can be extreme. We apply a range of basic investment decision rules to a retirement portfolio applying various withdrawal rates and examine the probability of shortfalls over a retirement horizon. Using a block bootstrap simulation technique, we examine decision rules relating to stock and bond investments. Our results show that retirement portfolios with a bias towards stocks coupled with a decision rule that sources withdrawals from bonds and cash before stocks significantly outperforms alternative withdrawal strategies, despite the inherent increase in volatility. This finding is in direct contrast to the safe withdrawal rate conventions used in contemporary financial advice models.     

Legal Minimum Wages and Employment Duration

We estimate the effect of minimum wages on employment duration using event history data from the 1988-1994 rounds of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Existing literature takes two alternative tracks: Some studies predict reduced turnover due to rents created by minimum wages, others focus on the expected increase in turnover due to reduced job amenities and imperfect information. We find that for men, the net effect of a minimum wage depends on its magnitude relative to the typical wage in the local labor market. We find some evidence that where the minimum wage is low, separation rates for men hired at the minimum wage are reduced. We also find that as the relative value of the minimum wage rises, separation hazards increase. We interpret these findings as evidence that rents may accrue to minimum wage workers, but that the job matching process is undermined when the minimum wage binds.     

Institutions and Strategies: Trends and Obstacles to Recruiting Workers into Trade Unions in Poland

In this article, we examine the role of institutional context, organizational structures and trade union strategies in tempering membership decline in the number of trade unions in Poland. Empirical data include membership statistics collected for NSZZ Solidarno?? and 54 affiliates of two other largest trade union confederations (OPZZ and FZZ) supplemented by semi‐structured interviews with union leaders. In a decentralized collective bargaining system in Poland, a centralized trade union confederation (NSZZ Solidarno??) can more easily shift resources to efficiently organize workers than decentralized confederations, OPZZ and FZZ, whose development is mostly driven by competing trade unions representing narrower occupational groups. In conclusion, this observation is put in a broader context of the debates about trade union renewal in Eastern Europe.     

Usage‐based insurance and its acceptance: An empirical approach

This study aims to explore the motor insurance market's attitude towards usage‐based insurance (UBI), and thus its readiness for a launch in the near future. Data on client perception was collected using a structured questionnaire. On the basis of this, an initial selection of factors, other than income, that could influence the declared attitude of drivers was demonstrated showing that it is primarily dependent on certain demographic characteristics like their age, sex, or place of residence. A strong relationship was also demonstrated with respect to the intensity of the vehicle's use, to the amount of the insurance premium they have paid, and to the self‐assessment of the respondents' driving skills. Clients are likely to accept the concept of UBI once implemented, but that they are not ready yet to give up the traditionally used methods of premium calculation. Their attachment to discounts granted can be very strong in particular to the no‐claims bonus.     

Capital Investment under Alternative Marketing Scenarios in the Hog Industry: A Real Option Approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze the impact of alternative marketing contracts on the decision to invest in a cooperatively owned hog facility. For the numerical analysis of the impact, this paper uses a simulation method that incorporates early exercise, multiple‐state variables, multi‐choice decisions and temporal optimality. The results show that the option values that stem from the value of waiting to invest and choosing between alternative marketing methods amounts to 20–36% of the initial investment. Further, having an option to choose an alternative marketing method with different risk structure does add to the value of waiting to invest. Having an option to enter a 15‐year marketing contract increases the value of waiting by as much as $117,097 for the pork production example in this paper. Finally, the value of the option to wait is unilaterally lower under a risk‐reducing contract scenario than under a spot market alternative. This could explain the explosion in hog production facility investment during the 1990s when prevalence of contract production increased. Les auteurs ont recouru à l'approche du choix véritable pour analyser l'impact d'autres solutions de mise en marché sur la capacité d'investir ou pas dans un élevage de porcs exploitéà la manière d'une coopérative. Aux fins de l'analyse, on s'est servi d'une méthode de simulation intégrant une brève campagne, de multiples variables d'État, des décisions à choix multiple et des conditions optimales dans le temps. Les résultats indiquent que l'existence d'un choix réel permettant à l'exploitant d'attendre avant d'investir et de sélectionner entre plusieurs méthodes de mise en marché représente 20 à 36 pour cent de l'investissement initial. Par ailleurs, le fait d'avoir accès à une autre méthode de mise en marché, à structure de risque différente, ne donne pas plus de valeur à la capacité d'attendre avant de procéder aux investissements. La possibilité de signer une entente de commercialisation de quinze ans accroît la valeur de l'attente de jusqu'à 117,097 $ pour le type d'élevage porcin retenu comme exemple. Enfin, l'existence d'une entente de commercialisation atténuant les risques réduit unilatéralement la valeur de l'option « attente », comparativement à ce qui se produit quand l'éleveur n'a d'autre choix qu'écouler ses bêtes sur le marché au comptant. Ces résultats pourraient expliquer l'explosion des investissements observée dans le secteur du porc au cours des années 90, où la production sous contrat avait sensiblement augmenté.     

Erosion mitigation in the Waikato District,New Zealand: economic implications for agriculture

Soil erosion, in its various forms, is caused or aggravated by agricultural activities. Mitigation of surface erosion comprises the construction of shelterbelts, fencing, riparian buffering, and stock reduction. Mitigation of mass‐movement erosion, in turn, takes the form of spaced planting of trees to maintain a persistent, healthy, and complete ground cover. In this article, we assess the economic implications to agriculture of the adoption of mitigation alternatives for erosion control in the Waikato District, New Zealand. The Waikato District presents a spatial pattern of erosion that affects profitability of dairy, and sheep and beef enterprises. We use the Universal Soil Loss Equation and the New Zealand Empirical Erosion Model to estimate erosion figures that are then fed into an economic‐focused, nonlinear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use. Different scenarios are constructed for surface and mass‐movement soil erosion targets ranging from 0% to 50% below baseline levels. We find that achieving surface erosion targets is more expensive than mass‐movement targets, and results in different responses in regional‐level costs, land use, enterprise net revenue, and adoption of mitigation alternatives.     

Economic development,food demand and the consequences for agricultural resource requirements: an application to Indonesia

We analyse food demand patterns of Indonesian households from a resource intensity perspective and quantify the impact of changed demand patterns on the use of three major resource inputs: fossil fuel; land; and water in agricultural production. Using Indonesian Family Life Survey data, 13 major food items (which constitute 70 per cent of food expenditure) are categorised into low, moderate and high resource intensity, and income elasticity and Engel curves are estimated for the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results show that income growth in Indonesia is associated with demand patterns that are more resource intensive. By 2007, per capita requirements of fossil fuel, land and water increased by 42.7 per cent (3.13 MJ), 44.9 per cent (1.24 m²) and 50.4 per cent (2.1 kL), respectively, relative to 1997. The results imply that, at least for Indonesia, changed food demand patterns resulting from economic development will increase the demand for natural resources substantially.     

Not Featherbedding,but Feathering the Nest: Human Resource Management and Investments in Information Technology

This study draws on employment relations and management theory, claiming that certain innovative employment practices and work structures pave the way for organizational innovation, namely investments in information technology (IT). It then finds support for the theory in a cross‐section of UK workplaces. The findings suggest that firms slow to adopt IT realize that their conventional employment model hinders their ability to make optimal use of new technologies. Therefore, the paper advances the literature beyond studies of unionization's impact on business investment to a broader set of issues on the employment relations features that make organizations ripe for innovation.