Bargaining over an uncertain outcome:¶the role of beliefs

We study the Nash bargaining solution of a problem in which two agents bargain over an uncertain outcome. Under the assumptions of risk neutrality and of constant absolute risk aversion, we study the way that the solution varies, ex ante, when we vary the beliefs of one agent. Changing an agent's beliefs in a way that makes them “more distant” from the other agent's beliefs makes the second agent better off. Received: 10 May 2001 / Accepted: 22 August 2001     

Measuring common cyclical features during financial turmoil: Evidence of interdependence not contagion

This paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets by considering a measure of co-movement based on the notion of common cycles to detect short-run co-movements between a set of time series. We apply our methodology to the international effects of the 1994 Mexican peso crisis and the 1997 Asian crisis. Our results can be interpreted as evidence of a high level of market co-movement during all states of the world and, therefore, question the hypothesis of shift-contagion in the transmission of financial shocks during the 1997 Asian crisis, and to a lesser extent, the 1994 Mexican crisis.     

Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina

This article analyzes adoption and impacts of Bt cotton in Argentina against the background of monopoly pricing. Based on survey data, it is shown that the technology significantly reduces insecticide applications and increases yields; however, these advantages are curbed by the high price charged for genetically modified seeds. Using the contingent valuation method, it is shown that farmers' average willingness to pay is less than half the actual technology price. A lower price would not only increase benefits for growers, but could also multiply company profits, thus, resulting in a Pareto improvement. Implications of the sub-optimal pricing strategy are discussed.     

Multiple equilibria in a cash-in-advance two-sector economy

We consider a two-sector infinite horizon economy with a fractional cash-in-advance constraint on consumption expenditures. This formulation allows us to consider a steady-state velocity of money that is strictly greater than one and, therefore, provides a more plausible framework than the standard formulation in which all the consumption purchases are paid cash. We prove that the steady state is bound to be indeterminate and multiple equilibria occur when the share of the liquidity constraint is low enough and that a capital-intensive investment good or a strongly capital-intensive consumption good improve considerably the scope for indeterminacy. As a consequence, we show that without any restriction on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, multiple equilibria might occur if the velocity of money is greater than a critical bound that is compatible with empirical estimates.     

On Stability in Competition: Tying and Horizontal Product Differentiation

We combine Hotelling’s model of product differentiation with tie-in sales. A monopolist in one market competes with another firm in a second market. In equilibrium firms choose zero product differentiation. Due to the tying structure no firm can gain the whole market by a small price reduction. A differentiation effect due to tie-in sales leads to this equilibrium stability.      

Mixed causal–noncausal autoregressions with exogenous regressors

Mixed causal–noncausal autoregressive (MAR) models have been proposed to model time series exhibiting nonlinear dynamics. Possible exogenous regressors are typically substituted into the error term to maintain the MAR structure of the dependent variable. We introduce a representation including these covariates called MARX to study their direct impact. The asymptotic distribution of the MARX parameters is derived for a class of non-Gaussian densities. For a Student likelihood, closed-form standard errors are provided. By simulations, we evaluate the MARX model selection procedure using information criteria. We examine the influence of the exchange rate and industrial production index on commodity prices.