Monetary Policy,Taylor’s Rule and Instability

We analyse the dynamic behaviour of an economy where the central bank (CB) sets interest rates according to a Taylor‐type policy rule. A simple model for a closed and instability‐prone economy is constructed and subjected to formal dynamical analysis and numerical simulation. It is shown that a requirement for local stability is that the two response coefficients in the policy rule be positive. Similarly, it is shown that raising the response coefficient of the output gap increases the likeliness of the economy being stable, whereas raising the response coefficient of the inflation gap has an uncertain and probably negligible effect on local stability. Self‐sustained oscillations may arise for certain parameter values. Policy mistakes in the estimation of the long‐run equilibrium real interest rate or potential real GDP may prevent the CB from achieving its inflation target. A suggestion for enhancing the stabilization capacity of Taylor‐type policy rules in the context of the model presented is made.     

Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area #

Productivity slowdown plays a prominent role in the build-up of the euro area crisis. This phenomenon affected member countries asymmetrically, causing divergence in their productivity trends. Recent research traces this divergence back to monetary integration. After reviewing the arguments that link real “disintegration” of the euro area to its monetary integration, we assess them empirically by modelling the evolution of labour productivity using a panel of sectorial data. The results indicate that monetary unification may actually have fostered divergence in productivity trends, and suggest some economic policy measures that could prevent further divergence.     

Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Many countries have large or increasing migrant populations. We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to nonoil GDP for nationals and migrants using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. We use data from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have a particularly large share of foreign workers. Our results indicate that the employment response is statistically significantly lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7, than for migrants, where the short- and long-run elasticities are 0.35 and almost unity. Lower elasticities could signal higher labour market adjustment costs. In the context of low oil prices, forecasts imply a significant jobs shortfall for nationals in the coming years.     

Political and Economic Inequities and the Shaping of Institutions and Redistribution

This article studies the joint effect of political and economic inequalities on redistributive taxation and institutional quality. The theoretical model suggests that income inequality, coupled with political bias in favor of the rich, decreases redistribution and lowers institutional quality. The effect of the former is to increase productive investment, and the effect of the latter is to decrease it—with resulting ambiguous implications for economic growth. Testing these predictions empirically in a panel of countries, we find that inequality has a negative effect on both institutional quality and redistribution.     

THE TIME‐SERIES PROPERTIES OF UK INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE DATA

This paper contrasts the time‐series properties of aggregate and disaggregate UK inflation. While aggregate inflation is found to be non‐stationary, unit root rejection frequencies are increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Structural break analysis suggests that structural shifts in monetary policy could alter inflation persistence. Additionally, panel evidence indicates that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for sectoral inflation rates. Finally, we compare the persistence properties of UK inflation, finding statistically significant differences between aggregate and disaggregate series. Our analysis suggests that aggregation matters, which has important implications for econometric analysis and the conduct of monetary policy.     

Asymmetric competition and collection rates differentials: determinants of prices in international telephone service markets

The paper investigates determinants of pricing in international telephone service markets. The analysis—focused on 24 worldwide national markets—shows the impact of several telecommunications-specific and macroeconomic variables on collection rate differentials and traffic imbalance between countries. An econometric model is aimed at performing quantitative analysis and providing support to future telecommunications policies.     

Profit‐sharing plans and affective commitment: Does the context matter?

This article analyzes the relationship between profit‐sharing plans (PSP) and affective commitment and how it is affected by the context of the PSP application. Overall, there is a positive relationship between profit sharing and commitment that is strongest in very small firms. The efficacy of a PSP in improving employees' affective commitment appears to be greatest in firms with low job‐related employee participation. Its application in workplaces where employees enjoy high levels of participation appears to have little impact and may even result in slight declines in affective commitment. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

State English-only policies and English-language investments

Many states in the US have considered adopting ‘English-only’ legislation since the early 1980s. This paper argues that this legislation has a variety of expected and unexpected outcomes. Using the 1980 and 1990 Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), this study finds that Asian immigrants in general and Hispanic immigrants who arrived to the US prior to 1970 acquired more English fluency on average during the 1980s when residing in states that passed English-only (EO) legislation compared to their similar peers. The passage of such legislation also appears to have distorted residence decisions as well as the relative quality of immigrants between EO and non-EO states.     

Unlocking the potential of Italian broadband: Case studies and policy lessons

A number of regional initiatives have recently revived the Italian broadband sector, although their fortunes vary depending on governance, market and geographical issues. However, all these initiatives jointly succeeded in sparking a heated debate on how public–private interplay can facilitate the deployment of broadband networks in a country still lagging behind European frontrunners such as Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. In the light of European Union regulation and recent case law, the paper examines three regional initiatives (Progetto Banda Ultra Larga Lombardia, Trentino Network and Lepida Emilia Romagna) by using the conceptual model on public private interplay developed by Nucciarelli, Sadowski, and Achard (2010). Thereafter, the paper elaborates on initiatives' ups and downs to focus on conditions and trigger events that have made them a success or a failure story. Lessons learnt conclude.