Employment and Exchange Rates: The Role of Openness and Technology

Real exchange rate movements are important drivers of the reallocation of resources between sectors of the economy. Economic theory suggests that the impact of exchange rates should vary with the degree of exposure to international competition and with the technology level. We show that both the degree of openness and the technology level mediate the impact of exchange rate movements on labour market developments. According to our estimations, whereas employment in high-technology sectors seems to be relatively immune to changes in real exchange rates, these appear to have sizable and significant effects on highly open low-technology sectors. The analysis of job flows suggests that the impact of exchange rates on these sectors occurs through employment destruction.     

On the relevance of floating exchange rate policies

I study the relevance of the composition of the public debt between domestic and foreign liabilities in a standard stochastic small open-economy framework. The government issues nominal bonds of several maturities with noncontingent face value at redemption. Intervening in the exchange market to implement an adequate state-contingent path for the nominal exchange rate is an effective way for the government to prevent the economy from reaching any competitive equilibrium it wishes to rule out. Most sterilized interventions are not neutral; however, few of them are. As a consequence, the composition in question is undetermined. Hence, a floating regime may decentralize every competitive outcome, even one induced by a pegging policy. Conversely, outcomes brought forth by a floating regime can also be induced by a policy that prescribes active government intervention in the foreign currency market. Moreover, an open-market operation can be replaced by an equivalent combination of an exchange intervention plus a restructuring of the domestic debt maturity. Introducing in the model strategic behavior by the government combined with asymmetric information or lack of commitment can remove that indeterminacy. Hence, these factors seem to be the major determinants of a possible relation between floating exchange rate policies and economic outcomes.     

ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Measuring the size of global logistics expenditure is a difficult task. What is an estimate of logistics expenditures for the global economy? The objective of this research is to answer this question. Using neural networks, an artificial intelligence methodology, logistics expenditures have been estimated at the country level. There are two main contributions from this research. The first is an update of previous estimates of global logistics expenditures. The second is continuous improvement of the estimation method, including information quality and availability as well as mathematical model refinement.     

Can agency theory justify the regulation of insider trading?

Conclusion The insider trading debate traditionally discusses the pros and cons of insider trading and draws a conclusion about the desirability or undesirability of public regulation of insider trading. One of the most important arguments against insider trading is that it generates agency problems that shareholders cannot resolve and that, therefore, insider trading should be publicly regulated. We have challenged this argument for failing to engage in comparative institutional analysis. We argued that when the negative aspects of insider trading, namely, the agency problems that it may create, are considered, it is necessary to engage in comparative institutional analysis and how these problems can be resolved under two different economic systems: the market economy and interventionism. We have been led to the conclusion that under a market economy, shareholders do have mechanisms to protect themselves against agency problems generated by insider trading and that these problems are reduced to a minimum. We have shown that interventionism hampers the functioning and reduces the disciplinary role of such mechanisms. Therefore, insiders have indeed more latitude to engage in these discretionary behaviors, pointed out by the supporters of the insider-trading-as-an-agency-problem argument, that harm shareholders. Finally, we have shown that the failures of government regulation reinforce this tendency of insiders’ behavior. We conclude that we cannot justify a public regulation of insider trading based on the insider-trading-as-agency-problem argument.     

ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES: 2002 DATA UPDATE

The objective of this research was to estimate logistic expenditure for the global economy. An Artificial Neural Network was used to generate national estimates. The estimation set constitutes 24 countries representing approximately 75% of the global Gross Domestic Product. The model utilizes variables that capture economic activity, transportation activity, income level, country size, and geographic location. This research updates previous estimates and represents continuous improvement of the estimation method, including new input variables, better information quality, mathematical model refinement, and methods of model validation.     

A European Agenda for Smart Consumer Protection Rules for Digital Services

Digital services are increasingly important in the economy and in society in general, as they continue to shift from being a specific sector of activities to becoming the basis for the provision of most services. They offer multiple new opportunities from which consumers benefit daily, but they also raise novel questions for consumer protection.     

A behavioral explanation of the value anomaly based on time-varying return reversals

We investigate the dynamics of the value anomaly in order to identify the driving forces of the anomaly. We show that the large positive value-minus-growth portfolio returns are explained by an over-reaction (under-reaction) to the positive (negative) market movements in short, specific time periods, during which the average returns of value-minus-growth portfolios are more than 2% a month. We propose an explanation based on behavioral biases: the dynamics of the value anomaly reflect the increased speed of return reversals subsequent to overreaction. Two conditions that increase the return reversals are proposed: when investors respond to public signals asymmetrically or when public signals become noisy. Our empirical results reveal that the value anomaly is explained by either one of these two channels.     

A model of innovation and learning with involuntary spillovers and absorptive capacity

We develop a model of innovation and learning that incorporates explicitly the need for a firm to conduct its own research and development (R&D) in order to realize involuntary spillovers from other firms’ R&D activity and the development of absorptive capacity of research firms over time. The conclusions of the model follow directly from the functional forms that are used to describe the generation and absorption of technological knowledge. The first proposition formally characterizes the steady-state rate of growth of technology for the model. The analysis also shows how some of the key features of two distinct, pure modes of organization of the production of new knowledge, the R&D model and the new localized knowledge model, are implied by our model by simply drastically changing the relative magnitude of two exogenous parameters: the ease of learning and the pace of knowledge advance. The second proposition formally characterizes the connections implied by the model between involuntary spillovers and absorptive capacity. Analysis of the long-term interactions between involuntary spillovers of knowledge and absorptive capacity provides the essential insights into an understanding of the elements of a self-sustained process of endogenous growth. The third and last formal proposition of this paper accommodates firm-level arguments and the crucial role of a firm's absorptive capacity in taking advantage of its location in clusters, as implied by the theoretical model.     

The knowledge multiplier

The paper develops a formal model of external knowledge and identifies the role of knowledge multipliers. Social interactions and knowledge multipliers play a crucial role in determining the rate of technological change. The analytical identification of the knowledge multiplier expression constitutes a key step in the appreciation of the crucial role of knowledge interactions. First, social considerations endogenously change the knowledge production function of each firm. The knowledge multiplier is the specific mechanism by means of which external knowledge contributes to enhance the innovative capacity of each firm. The production function of knowledge shows that the larger the knowledge multiplier is the stronger are the cumulative positive effects of external knowledge on the generation of new knowledge. Second, social considerations explain the long-run dynamics of innovation. Social reinforcement and the knowledge multiplier determine the rise or fall in the rate of accumulation of technological knowledge.     

Strategic Implications of Alliances and Other Linkages of Leading Telecom Operators in Brazil: Network and International Perspectives

In response to competitive pressures created by privatization, telecom firms in developing countries are establishing alliances and other types of linkages—mergers and acquisitions—with foreign partners to ensure customer competitive advantages in global markets. However, there have been very few studies on the alliances of telecom operators in Brazil, an increasingly important BRIC. This article presents the results of research that aimed to fill this gap by identifying, from a network/international perspective, the opportunities/threats created by the relevant linkages of leading telecom operators in Brazil. The results suggest that acquisitions—and especially alliance-type linkages with foreign partners—have created opportunities for boosting performance, in keeping with their new strategic profile.