Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors

Using a long sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947–2010, we examine the out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices by means of macroeconomic and financial variables. Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the investment–capital ratio have some predictive power at longer (yearly) horizons. Commodity price predictability is strongest when based on multivariate approaches that account for parameter estimation error. Commodity price predictability varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during economic recessions.     

Blue Flag or Red Herring: Do beach awards encourage the public to visit beaches?

Surveys of beach visitor motivation in Ireland, Wales, Turkey and the USA indicate that beach awards play an insignificant role in motivation to visit beaches. However, a number of criteria closely identified with awards, notably cleanliness and water quality, are revealed to be very important. Aesthetic and emotional factors such as scenic setting and general ambience, and practical concerns such as proximity and range of activities available are much more important than beach awards in attracting visitors to beaches. The merits of beach awards are critically reviewed and it is concluded that any benefits that might accrue are in areas other than attracting visitors.     

The Diaries of a Cabinet Minister,Volume One,Minister of Housing 1964–66

While John R. Commons often referred to third sector organizations, such as associations, cooperatives, and trade unions, it is unclear how these organizations can be fitted into his transactional typology. This paper clarifies this problem by identifying two dimensions of bargaining, managerial, and rationing transactions: 1) the extent of legal equality of transactional participants, and 2) the extent of commonness of these participants' transactional interests. These dimensions enable defining the identity of the third sector in terms of a distinct variety of rationing transactions combining legal equality of transactional participants with significant commonness of their interests. The paper further explores several implications of this argument for new institutional economics, concerning the citizenship aspect of markets and hierarchies and the possibility of viewing third sector organizations as hybrids between markets and hierarchies. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for further research.     

Foot-and-mouth Disease and Trade Restrictions: Latin American Access to Pacific Rim Beef Markets

Owing to their eradication of foot-and-mouth disease Argentina and Uruguay have recently been granted access to the fresh beef markets of the United States and Canada. This raises the prospect of Latin American suppliers gaining access to other Pacific Rim markets, and of increasing the integration of the Pacific and non-Pacific beef markets. A two-commodity spatial equilibrium model is constructed for the base year 1995. Projections are then made for the year 2001 under various policy and other scenarios. In some instances, major changes in trade patterns may result.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

Using Limited Information to Support the Decision to Launch a New Product in the Fruit Juice Market: A Teaching Case Study

Fresh Juice Incorporated (FJI) is in the process of determining whether it should launch a new fruit juice, Genetically Enhanced (GE) Juice. The GE Juice meets consumers' demands for a tasty, nutritious product and it would be the first new juice product in the last fifteen years. Before FJI decides to launch GE Juice, it must analyze the uncertainty surrounding market size, market share, and price of GE Juice. Finally, if FJI decides to launch GE Juice, then they must decide if they will bottle the juice themselves or outsource this process. This case teaches students how to discuss the strategic implications of launching a new product and develop a net present value and financial feasibility simulation model given limited information.