Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

Procyclical government spending: Patterns of pressure and prudence in the OECD

This paper tests for differences in the cyclicality of government spending across functional categories. Evidence from 20 OECD countries suggests that procyclicality is more likely in smaller functional budgets, but capital spending is more likely to be procyclical for the larger spending categories.     

Can national infrastructure spending reduce local unemployment? Evidence from an Australian roads program

We examine the effect of a federally-funded local infrastructure spending program on local unemployment rates. To address the likely funding endogeneity problem, we exploit variation in spending due to pork-barreling, and find that higher government expenditure on roads substantially reduces local unemployment.     

Allocative efficiency measurement with endogenous prices

In the nonparametric measurement of allocative efficiency, output prices are fixed. If prices are endogenous, the overall output in the market determines the allocative efficient point. We develop an alternative semi-nonparametric model that allows prices to be endogenously determined.     

Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

Trust, reputation and relationships in grazing rights markets: An experimental economic study

Trust is frequently a requirement for economic exchanges and the management of natural resources. Providing public information on past actions can promote trust through the formation of reputations. We developed an economic experiment to test whether a formal reputation mechanism could facilitate trusting relationships in the tradable grazing rights markets. Providing information to create formal public reputations for market participants did not increase the overall efficiency of the market. However, it did result in greater equality of income between partners, suggesting that participants showed more concern for their partners when they knew they would be rated. Even with public reputation information, bilateral relationships remained central to the market. Market failures in existing grazing rights markets may be better addressed by measures to increase communication between partners rather than simply relying on a formal reputation mechanism.     

Experience and a firm's performance in foreign markets: A commentary essay

Wu and Lin (2010) extend several prominent themes in the experience and subsidiary performance literature in their empirical examination of the foreign expansion of Taiwanese MNEs. This commentary essay considers the themes in Wu and Lin (2010) against the backdrop of the considerable volume of research that has been conducted on experiential learning and firm performance in both the international business and strategy literatures. Five weak axioms about the relationships between experience, foreign market entry strategy, and performance emerge in this review. Based on these weak axioms, the commentary concludes that scholars need to concentrate future research on understanding the management and process-related issues that concern the effective management of a firm's experiential learning processes to foster better capability and knowledge development from a firm's experience, as well as translate such developments into improved performance prospects for a firm.     

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth:TWO Sides of the Same Coin?

Over the long run, sustained growth is central to poverty reduction.The rapid growth seen in much of the world over the past few decades, notably, but not only, in China and India, has led to an unprecedented reduction in poverty.And, in general, increases in per capita income tend to translate into proportionate increases in income of the poor.As Dollar and Kraay memorably put it, "Growth Is Good for the Poor."Some inequality is integral to the effective functioning of a market economy and the incentives needed for investment and growth.But too much inequality might be destructive to growth.Beyond the risk that inequality.     

Value Congruence and Charismatic Leadership in CEO–Top Manager Relationships: An Empirical Investigation

Although charismatic leadership theorists have long argued that leader–follower value congruence plays a central role in the development of charismatic relationships, few studies have tested this proposition. Using data from two studies involving a total of 329 CEOs and 1807 members of their top management teams, we tested the hypothesis that value congruence between leaders and their followers is empirically linked to follower perceptions of the charisma of their leader. Consistent with a relational perspective on charismatic leadership, strong support was found for the hypothesis that perceived value congruence between leaders (CEOs) and their followers (members of their top management teams) is positively related to follower perceptions of the degree of charisma possessed by the leader. Conversely, only limited support was found for the hypothesis that actual value congruence is linked to perceptions of charismatic leadership. Implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.     

Investigating the immediate and long-term effects of job stressors on frontline service employees

Two studies investigate the immediate and long-term effects of job stressors on frontline service employees (FSEs). Using cognitive appraisal theory, we develop and test a conceptual model of two job stressors (crowding and emotional labor) that affect coping strategies and job outcomes. Study 1, which is a field experiment, investigates the immediate effects of crowding in a single firm. Study 2 extends the findings of Study 1 and investigates the long-term effects of emotional labor and crowding on FSEs across multiple firms. The results show that crowding has a negative impact on coping strategies and job-related outcomes. In addition, emotional labor can lead to long-term negative outcomes, such as emotional exhaustion and decreased job retention, for some FSEs. Consequently, service organizations should consider strategies or tactics that prevent high levels of customer crowding and help FSEs deal with emotional labor.